Saturday, May 28, 2011

Fantasy files: Transition from dynasty to keeper

As the post rookie draft free agency period cools down, it's time for me to take a break from my dynasty team. The sum total of my moves is below:

Adds (veterans)

Mike Vick

Marques Colston

Osi Umenyiora

Adds (rookies)

Cam Newton

Taiwan Jones

Bilal Powell

DeMarco Murray

Jacquizz Rodgers

Vincent Brown

Marques Colston

Denarious Moore

Jordan Cameron

Osi Umenyiora

Casey Matthews

Colin McCarthy

Jaiquawn Jarrett

Quinton Carter

Drops/Traded

Josh Johnson

Josh Freeman

Mike Thomas

Javarris James

Tony Scheffler

Alterraun Verner

Starting lineup, week one will be something like Mike Vick, Matt Forte, Peyton Hillis, Ray Rice, Marques Colston, Hakeem Nicks, Sidney Rice, Chris Cooley, Rob Bironas, Jason Babin, Osi Umenyiora, David Harris, James Harrison, Mario Williams, Dashon Goldson, Charles Tillman, and Jaiquawn Jarrett. The downside of picking up 12 rookies is that it's going to be hard to find veterans to prune, especially if the offseason is compressed any longer.

It's time to move onto my other team. In six weeks or so we'll have to announce
keepers in my local keeper league. I'm fairly set with Eli, Frank Gore, and Hakeem Nicks as my keepers. I might be able to pawn off Darren McFadden on one of the RB-weak squads. Or I could try to get a higher draft pick for Frank Gore who's great when healthy but only once has played the full 16 games. RB is a tough spot especially with two starters and only four roster slots. With bye weeks it's almost impossible to play the handcuff game.

I feel fine with Eli as my keeper QB. He's a steady player who's going to give you 16 games. He had 4000 passing yards for the second year in a row and exceeded 30 TD passes for the first time in career. He did throw a career-high 25 interceptions, and it only seems like all of them came off Nicks' inconsistent hands. His fantasy rank in the past six years has been 5, 10, 13, 13, 10, 9. With 12 teams it seems like having a guy who always finishes around 10th isn't a competitive advantage. Knowing that he's going to end up there is an advantage.

I'm not sure if I am willing to part with Gore and make McFadden my go-to guy. Now, with the addition of a WR/TE flex position last year, the value of running back dropped. The switch to PPR gave a higher advantage to the wideouts and the running backs who catch passes. McFadden finished eighth in RB scoring last year in 13 games. Gore finished 18th in 11 games. McFadden averaged 21 points a game to Gore's 18. McFadden had 10 TDs compared to Gore's 5. The main difference between the two is age. McFadden will be 24 this year and Gore's about to turn 28. McFadden could be a keeper through our entire five-year cycle while Gore might have one more year as a keeper candidate.

At WR I feel I have no choice. Miles Austin, Brandon Marshall, and Vincent Jackson could be top-12 guys but few players have the upside and skill of Hakeem Nicks. I have to find a dance partner for one of those three other guys. If I could get an extra draft pick or two this could be the best draft ever. If it actually happens.

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Fantasy files: The continuing story of Trader Zach

I have to shake things up to make my dynasty league more interesting. In a league that had zero regular-season trades last year, I have stirred the cobwebs. I picked up Vick and draft picks for Josh Freeman, feeling strong in my conviction that I I could get value out of those picks to offset Freeman's longer career tail. It took three attempts but it went through. I thought dangling Peyton Hillis for the 1.01 or 1.02 rookie would work. It did not. I then attempted to trade up to my dad's 1.04 pick from 1.06. That didn't work out when he wanted three of my acquired picks. I traded away my 1.06 pick in Mikel Leshoure in exchange for Marques Colston and two draft picks.

I failed in an offer of Chris Cooley for Jimmy Graham. Who knew a fifth-year senior who caught 17 passes would be one of the hottest dynasty tight ends?
Finally I got a couple of offers. My favorite owner who tries to pawn off the players he's going to release for a late draft pick offered me Chester Taylor for a 2012 fifth-rounder. He tried to get Taylor for a second-rounder last year. I showed him. I traded my second-round pick for Jerome Harrison. After complaining on the message board about Mario Williams' move to linebacker, he offered me a 2012 fourth-round pick for Williams. He tried to lowball me on Sidney Rice last year and Michael Crabtree this offseason. I'm not sure if we've ever consummated a trade, but it's always interesting.

Last night I browsed through the rosters looking for DL bargains. With Williams moving on I have not much at defensive line. On a whim I offered my dad Mike Thomas for Osi Umenyiora. Thomas wasn't going to start for me except for bye weeks. I could see him becoming a Derrick Mason or Donald Driver type. He could be a Brandon Stokley too. Umenyiora gives me a surefire top-ten DL, and I needed that.
I got greedy and followed up the offer, which was accepted so fast that I thought I probably could have asked for more, with an offer of Jason Babin for Derrick Morgan. That was not accepted.

The general dynasty advice is to treat it like the stock market. Diversify with youngsters and veterans. Including our auction period, I have added ten rookies, and will have eleven this time tomorrow night. At the same time I replaced Josh Freeman with Mike Vick, added Marques Colston, dropped Mike Thomas and picked up Osi Umenyiora.

The key to making trade offers in your league is twofold. In one part, you try to improve the team while at least giving the appearance of helping the other team. You are also building relationships with your leaguemates. It's more fun to know your enemy, in a matter of speaking.

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Fantasy files: Winding down

I have the 46th pick in my rookie draft. With pick 42, I took Denarius Moore of the Raiders. I now have Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore, and Ford's already a home-run guy to start as a WR3. Here's my draft to date:

1.12: DeMarco Murray

2.06: Cam Newton

2.10: Bilal Powell

2.12: Vincent Brown

3.06: Jacquizz Rodgers

4.06: Taiwan Jones

5.06: Denarius Moore

5.10: Hmm

6.06: Double Hmm

I have not drafted any IDPs yet and the weakness of my team is on the defensive side of the ball. I'm in real trouble at DL because I'm losing Mario Williams. Perhaps MFL will grant me a stay since Williams will be a stand-up rusher on run downs and a 3-4 end on pass downs. I have to assume that he's moving on, which leaves me with Jason Babin, Charles Johnson, and Matt Shaughnessey. All three were free agent pickups. Even if Babin re-signs with the Titans, he's a one-year wonder and the team has a new defensive philosophy that may or may not feature his pass-rush skill set. Johnson and Shaughnessey are guys you hope to have as a DL3, a bye week fill in. I balance that with the fact that defensive ends rarely contribute as rookies. I'm probably better off taking a flier on a veteran. Also, my home-run pick Da'Quan Bowers went the pick before mine.

I have options at LB. With Mario Williams making the switch, I have him, James Harrison, and David Harris as starters. Let's forget that I had Barrett Ruud, Kirk Morrison and Lawrence Timmons at one point and got rid of them all for a pittance. Colin McCarthy is still on the board. So are Jonas Mouton, Casey Matthews, and Kelvin Sheppard. Heck, Missouri guy Aldon Smith is still out there. I feel like I can wait.

Other than Patrick Peterson, no one's taken a defensive back yet. Jaiquawn Jarrett and Quinton Carter are both possible top-ten guys at safety.

I've drafted four running backs and there still are great guys left. Stevan Ridley, Johnny White, Jamie Harper, Jordan Todman, Evan Royster and Allan Bradford are there. Damn. AT WR we still see Dwayne Harris, Niles Paul, Jerrel Jernigan, Jeremy Kerley and Ronald Johnson. Jordan Cameron and DJ Williams are tempting at TE.
I'm facing one player showdown that a lot of rookie drafters are seeing. I could take tight end Jordan Cameron or defensive end Cameron Jordan. Let my Cameron go.

I took my biggest need and selected Jaiquawn. I put Titans LB Colin McCarthy number one for my sixth-round predraft. The rest of my big list will fill out my pre-draft want list. We'll be up for auction time once this draft is over with tons of talent on the board. Since I had so many rookie picks, my roster is at the max of 60 so I will have to drop some ballast to pick up any more guys. I'm sure NFL veterans love being called fantasy ballast.

Monday, May 16, 2011

Fantasy files: Walking the thin line

My dynasty rookie draft is in the third round. I'll complete my quick narcissistic story about my latest pick and move onto the important task at hand.

When the draft started, I had five picks in the top 30. Once I got to pick 30, I had made five selections albeit not the exact ones that started with. I already discussed my Mikel Leshoure trade. My target player at 1.12 was Delone Carter, although I would be happy with Randall Cobb or Demeco Murray, who I selected.

How soon things change in the league. Marion Barber was a key component to my dynasty team, first as insurance for Julius Jones and in his second year a fantasy force of his own. He is done in Dallas. The idea of Felix Jones as an every-down workhorse seems gone. Pity Tashard Choice, who I thought was a steal in the fourth round of the 2008 rookie draft but has not emerged with even a small portion of a RBBC. Murray seems like the guy.

I tormented over my 2.06 pick. I put one name down and even posted a comment before withdrawing. I put another name down and took a breath before hitting the send button. I finally put the first name back and rehashed the comment and Cam Newton was mine. I had moderate interest in Blaine Gabbert or Colin Kaepernick. Gabbert went at 1.08 and Kaepernick wasn't worthy of the 18th overall selection. I had an WR and RB in mind with the pick but saw the upcoming 2.10 and 2.12 picks and felt like if I missed on my first choice that I'd get the second. I thought the following about Cam. He was a star at Blinn Junior College and Auburn without what you'd call star-level talent surrounding him. Notice how many members of the Alabama national champs were highly drafted? Auburn had Newton and Nick Fairley. That's it. Newton may not have much receiver talent at Carolina but he's used to it. And as the face of the franchise, the team is going to develop an offense around him. If you want a comparison, Tim Tebow went 3.03 in our draft last year. If you want a better one, Jimmy Clausen went 1.12 in our rookie draft last year. Hells yeah I think Newton's better than Clausen. All Clausen has is Newton's number.

I also knew that the owners selecting between 2.06 and 2.10 had QB issues. Jake Locker and Kaepernick went in those three picks.

The RB and WR I targeted at 2.06? I got Bilal Powell at 2.10 and Vincent Brown at 2.12. I thought about Torrey Smith but he's a stinking Raven. I'm not completely anti-Raven as Ray Rice is one of my key players. I don't want to make it a habit.

Let me wash away the self love with some serious talk from the point of view of commissioner. Being a fantasy football commissioner is a less respected position than janitor, teacher, or Republican presidential hopeful. You do all of the work and take all of the crap. With that in mind, you have the leeway to put the smack down on your fellow owners, but only to a point.

The IDP selections in our draft to date have fallen in a familiar fantasy hole. The issue with rookie drafts, and one that the veteran so-called shark can take advantage of, is that the less prepared owners seem to assume that a higher drafted player is automatically better. That's why Von Miller is going to be the first linebacker drafted even though his real NFL value is going to be less than his fantasy value.

I had pick 3.06, and two of the picks ahead of me in the round were Ryan Kerrigan and Patrick Peterson. In the Zealots draft ADP that I check more often than my e-mail, Kerrigan has been taken in the end of the fourth round. In fact, where he was taken was the highest slot of any Zealots draft to date. Ditto Patrick Peterson, who my good friend commented as "talent". Oh, he is talent. As a rookie cornerback he's sure to be targeted by the mostly mediocre QBs of the NFC West. He is a great kick returner. He's still a freaking cornerback who might get 50 tackles and interceptions are hard to predict.

I could make fun of their picks and "school" them on finding the IDPers who are in the best position to succeed. This is harder to figure than the offensive guys. When drafting offensive rookies, you pretty much look at the depth chart. When looking at defensive players, you need to know the scheme. Is the safety going to play in the box? Is your DE going to be in a 4-3 or 3-4 scheme? Will your linebacker see a lot of blockers? I almost never know the answer to these questions, which is why I look at expert cheat sheets. Thanks again, footballguys.com.

Instead I keep my big Commish yapper shut and quietly rejoice with Jacquizz Rodgers falls to 3.06.

Come on, fellow drafters, we still have some first-rounders on the board. Get the lead out!

Sunday, May 15, 2011

Fantasy files: Trader Zach

Follow the Zealots 34 rookie draft.

Trader Zach is back. While I think that the main reason I'm pushing so many trades in my dynasty league is to improve my squad, part of the reason is that trades dried up in this league and I'm trying to get a little intrigue going.

I started with the pre-draft deal for Mike Vick that netted me a late first and second-round pick. I wanted those picks because of the depth at RB in this year's draft. Last year owners took LaGarrette Blount in the fourth round since such a small number of RBs were drafted. This year is different. There were 24 drafted running backs and at least half a dozen are still around by the fourth.

My next trade offers were failures. I offered Peyton Hillis for the 1.01. The counter was Ray Rice and Rice is one of those guys I'm not going to think about trading for at least two years. I offered Hillis for the 1.02. In an unfortunate turn of events, the owner of the 1.02 called while I was at the mall trying to update my wardrobe. It was an extended call during which my wife steered me to the underwear section and mouthed "can we leave yet?", which is normally my line. He counted with 1.06, 3.06 and Michael Bush for the pick. Since the owner of the 1.01 told me that he needed to get a RB with that pick, I knew that A.J. Green would be the guy. I thought the price too steep and countered with 1.06 and 3.06. He made the pick, which meant no deal and I wondered if, for the price of Michael Bush, I turned down a ten-year All Pro. Those are trade regrets for you.

I had the 1.06 and didn't know what to do with it. The predicted top five went (Ingram, Green, Thomas, Jones) went, although not in the predicted order. I sat at 1.06 with the obvious pick of Mikel Leshoure and the thought that one of the guys I might want at 1.12 would not make it to the end of the round. Because I don't like to quit, I made a trade offer to the Chargers for the pick. The Chargers have Jahvid Best. The Chargers' owner lives in Germany. When I made the offer it was the middle of the night over there. I picked Leshoure and figured that if he wanted to deal for a player instead of a pick, he'd still be interested.

That's a strangeness of trading rookie picks. Oftentimes you can trade a pick, but if you select the player the other owner wants, he's reluctant to deal. It's like the mystique of having the pick is worth something extra. Funny thing is the offer I made him was Marques Colston and his 2.10 pick for Leshoure. The counter-offer was Colston, the 2.10, and the 5.10. I took the deal.

I now have three second-round picks. Considering that our rosters are set at 60 but we have to pare down to 53 on opening day, I'm going to have to make some decisions regarding my veterans. I may have to pull a Belichick and trade for some 2012 picks.

My two trades did make my team older, so having the infusion of rookies will help. I finished third in my division but fourth in overall points. I do have three solid RB starters and with Colston my wideouts are good to great. With Romo and Vick at QB, I should be protected from injury at the position.

Friday, May 13, 2011

Fantasy files: Color me impressed

Ask and you shall receive. After manually keeping up with a few Zealot rookie drafts, one of my leaguemates sent me a link. That's just beautiful.

My work here is done. Oh what the heck, let's keep looking at results.
Guys who have been drafted in the top three at least once: Mark Ingram, A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Ryan Williams, Daniel Thomas, Mikel Leshoure, Blaine Gabbert.

When I said Von Miller was taken at 1.05, that wasn't his highest slot. He's been taken at 1.04.

Other surprising top ten picks in at least one draft: Torrey Smith (7), Kendall Hunter (6), Jake Locker (10), Vincent Brown (9), Christian Ponder (7).

Here are some top-ten guys taken a lot later: Shane Vereen (18), Greg Little (16), Jon Baldwin (17), Randall Cobb (21), Delone Carter (24), DeMarco Murray (17), Cam Newton (20), Torrey Smith (30).

Here are some top-ten guys taken a lot later: Shane Vereen (18), Greg Little (16), Jon Baldwin (17), Randall Cobb (21), Delone Carter (24), DeMarco Murray (17), Cam Newton (20), Torrey Smith (30).

When I made fun of the Prince Amukamara pick, here's why: He was taken at 3.01. His average draft position after three selections is 4.05, so his other selections were fifth round or later. To be fair, only a handful of leagues are in the third round so far.

Man I love this stupid, simple site.

With hours to go until my rookie draft's first pick, I decided to make some bold trade offers. I offered Peyton Hillis for the 1.02 or the 1.01 pick. I offered Chris Cooley, who I've loved like a brother, for Jimmy Graham. I am making a move to transform my team with eight and possibly nine rookie picks.

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Fantasy files: One man's opinion

"You said that man wasn't stealin' your love, he was only borrowin'" I'm Gonna Getcha Back, Eli "Paperboy" Reed

I'm doing some stealing of rookie draft results, but I'll share them with the masses. There's nothing worse than anonymously tearing people down on the Internet. When I look at the Zealots rookie draft results so far, I find it hard to resist the siren call.

I am prepared for at least the first three rounds of my draft. I do not believe every drafter is the same. There used to be a fine Zealot who would look up every ongoing rookie draft and put a link in one thread. He's taking the year off. I went into the 60 leagues and looked for active drafts. I found six active drafts. Zealots 5, 7, 24, 32, 42, and 49.

It's useful to find out a player's average draft position, and to see when guys are taken way too early or tragically late. Before the draft it seemed to be a toss-up between Mark Ingram and A.J. Green for the top slot. In Zealots you can start three running backs, or four wide receivers. So far there is no love for Green, at least at the top slot. In my six drafts, Ingram went #1 four times. Julio Jones went in the fifth and Daniel Thomas went in the other.

Daniel Thomas looks like the Julius Jones of this year's rookie RB class, if it's not Roy Helu. It is important to draft a guy who's actually going to play. Just know when you're passing up on a superior talent for a short-term starter. He went #1 in one draft, #2 in another, and #5 or 6 otherwise. He might not make it to my 1.06 slot.

Head scratchers to date are the following: Von Miller at 1.05. Von Miller might be the #5 rookie linebacker. It's interesting that there's a draft slot bias to people's picks. Before the draft, few people outside of the Titans draft war room had Jake Locker over Blaine Gabbert. Locker went ahead of Gabbert in one of the drafts and I'm sure it's because Locker was a higher pick. Miller may be a superior talent, but it's hard to say if he can get consistent sack numbers in a 4-3 defense.
Colin Kaepernick at 1.08 is the next one. He has tons of upside with Jim Harbaugh at the helm. I do like him in the late second/early third but this is a big reach. If you're thinking of getting Roy Helu with your second-round pick, think again. I expect him to have a better NFL career than Tony Hunt or Maurice Clarett, but that's about it.

Guy who took Greg McElroy at 2.08: If you don't get help at Charter, get help somewhere.

Cam Newton's probably getting drafted lower than any other #1 overall pick in a while. Even JaMarcus Russell was a rookie first rounder most of the time. No one took him in the first round. The 2.01-2.06 area is his sweet spot.

I'm kind of surprised that the earliest slot for Greg little was 1.07. He seems like the WR3 in this class. Ryan Williams dropped to 1.06 in one draft. That's not happening in my league.

Speaking of this crazy QB class, Gabbert and Newton are the most popular guys, but in one league Christian Ponder is the top pick. He might be the best QB in this class, but he doesn't scream fantasy winner. No one compared to Chad Pennington is winning you a trophy.

As for IDPs, most of the drafts are still too early. Prince Amukamara at 3.01 was precious. If you want Mason Foster or Nate Irving, you're going to have to use a late second or early third-round pick. I don't know if I can pass on those lower tier running backs.

Monday, May 09, 2011

Fantasy files: No when to say when

I'm elbow deep in mock drafts. I sent my league a message letting them know that it's go time when everyone posts on the message board. Am I ready? Probably not.

In yesterday's post, I considered a trade offer from my dad. After listening to the latest Audible Thursday night podcast, which featured lots of hot running back talk, I could not get rid of my 1.12, 2.06, and 3.06 even for the tempting package of Julio Jones and his hands of butter.

The best part about a mock draft is that it's not real. The worst part is you subconsciously let the other teams in your mock pick guys that you don't want. It's a good way to see your draft prejudices.

My eight picks in tonight's attempt were Mikel LeShoure, Delone Carter, Blaine Gabbert, Greg Salas, Alex Green, Dion Lewis, Da'Quan Bowers and Akeem Ayers. The offensive depth is so great that I couldn't consider going IDP until the fifth round. There seems to be quality linebacker depth this year. The problem is I just lost Mario Williams to the LB corps. I don't know if it's wise for the Texans to move their Pro Bowl defensive end to outside linebacker, but that is what is happening. Williams used to be my only quality DE. This year's DE class is fairly suspect and of course this is IDP football so I can find some help on the waiver wire.

Will I actually draft four running backs? I might. A starting wideout probably will have a longer career but with three starting slots and Peyton Hillis a ticking time bomb with his Madden cover, I'll need reinforcements. There are plenty of guys in this year's draft who will start as a backup or will partake in a time share.

I don't love 1.06 so I will be open to a trade when the pick comes up. Knowing my league, I'm going to make that selection. There aren't a ton of Belichicks in this league. My guys like to stay put.

Fantasy files: No deal is simple

I spent a weekend in Nashville visiting the folks. I thought that in between visiting the Ryman Auditorium and Brown's diner that I'd make a trade offer to my dad.

My only successful attempt to bond with my dad over the past decade involves having him join two of my fantasy football leagues. It provides us with endless commentary over players, teams, and deals made and lost. In the time that we've been in leagues together, he has one title to my zero and gets the best of me on a regular basis.

I still consider him a neophyte to the hobby. I asked him in passing if he'd be interested in trading down from 1.04 to 1.06 in our upcoming rookie draft. While I was gauging interest, I really wanted the relative sure thing I thought would be the pick. At 1.06 I'm looking at Daniel Thomas and Mikel LeShoure. At 1.04, considering that we can start three running backs, I felt like getting Julio Jones was a lock and the two-spot move was worth it.

The question is the price. Moving up two slots in a draft that has 12 per round seems like a cheap proposition. I initially offered to trade my second-round pick for his third and that was the start of negotiations.

My father, seeming only tangentially interested in my offer, sent me a doozy the following morning. He offered me the 1.04 along with the 4.04 for my 1.12, 2.06, and 3.06. This wasn't quite what I had in mind. I apparently had sold the sixth pick as worthless.

Last week I did a mock with the extra picks I acquired in the Vick deal. I had five picks in the top 30 and enjoyed the possibilities. If I make this deal, I get two picks in the top six, and only 2.12 between that and the fourth round. Other than hoping for some mid-tier RBs or WRs to drop, this deep class would pass me by. In exchange I get two guys who with some luck will be starters for the next five years and perhaps beyond. That wily dad.

Wednesday, May 04, 2011

Fantasy files: The Dealmaker

My dynasty league is slipping, and I know why. In years past as I prepared for the annual rookie draft, I cursed my fellow owners for their multiple trades as I had to organize the draft picks as a result. There were at least a dozen deals and in one case a single draft pick changed hands three times, returning to the original owner.

This year was different. I looked and saw that there were a paltry three trades involving rookie picks. In a dynasty league, the only way to acquire new talent is through the rookie draft, free agency, and waivers during the year. The pool is as deep as a quarter on its side for running backs, quarterbacks, and wide receivers if you don't count the rookie draft. If you find yourself short in these positions, you have to deal.

I got an offer, or a tentative offer, from my suddenly Tampa Bay Lightening-obsessed friend Brian. He wanted Josh Freeman. Funny enough, in our rookie draft two years ago I had pick 2.08 and he traded up to get ahead of me in the draft. I assumed that he, as a Bucs fan, was going for Freeman. He took Kenny Britt, and we had crossed obsessed fan streams as I ended up with Freeman. I wasn't exactly bowled over by Freeman, as I considered him the 8th best QB in the Big 12 his junior year. He grew up a lot in a year.

Did I mention the offer? Brian was smart enough to pick Mike Vick off waivers in the last year of his prison term, and before last year offered him to me as a joke for practically nothing. I passed. Something clicked as he offered me Vick plus extra considerations for Freeman.

At first glance, Vick plus anything for Freeman seems like a bounty. Vick was the number three overall scorer in our league. Anyone ranked that high is usually not for sale. Then again, Freeman was number eight, scoring about 2.5 fewer points per game. He was born in 1988, so he will not turn 30 until after the 2017 season. Vick will be 31 before this season starts, and he might have five more years in the league. With that in mind, Freeman's worth more than Vick.

I made a trade offer. I have Romo and the Vick/Romo combo platter seems good enough to get me by for the next three years. It's hard to project much further than that. Whether Brian bites and the rookie picks I'm trying to get out of him lead to productive guys, well, that's another gamble altogether.

Tuesday, May 03, 2011

Fantasy files: Rookie draft time

While I think that grading each team's NFL draft results is dumb, I can't help but read. I don't take the thoughts seriously but I want experts to like the Titans' picks. Most of these guys can't even get a playbook.

The NFL draft means nothing compared to my upcoming rookie draft in Zealots 34. As a primer for the draft I started looking at every team's roster and their possible needs. The 1.06 spot feels like a weak place. Before the NFL draft I was convinced that AJ Green, Julio Jones, Mark Ingram, Ryan Williams and Mikel LeShoure would be the first five picks, leaving me taking a second-tier guy like Randall Cobb. Since LeShoure went to the Lions, a team that drafted Jahvid Best early next year and will expect him to get the majority of touches, he might drop.

This year's Julius Jones could be Daniel Thomas. I speak ill of Jones who has done me no harm save destroying a few of my fantasy teams. Daniel Thomas will jump in rookie rankings because he could be the starter in Miami. In fantasy football it's a dangerous move to take the guy who has a better chance of starting immediately over the better talent who will need more time. After all, you're getting these guys for the duration of their career, even if that career turns into a Kenny Irons, Chris Henry (the RB), Artose Pinner or Tony Hunt.

The running backs get a lot more context after the draft than before. Unlike the wideouts, who can be second options but still valuable fantasy performers, it's hard to get excited about a committee guy or obvious backup. LeShoure went to the Lions. Let us not forget that while Best was the only RB in my dynasty league to have a 50-point game, he's going to get nicked up. Daniel Thomas and Roy Helu, Jr. moved up in a big way by going to teams with starting spots that are open. The Patriots had two fantasy-worthy running backs last year. What does the addition of Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley mean? Alex Green was the man in Hawaii's spread offense. Now he could be the eventual starter in Green Bay. The Packers alone intrigued by picking up a RB, WR, and TE, all who could light it up.

The Cowboys had three running backs who have posted 100-yard games, yet they drafted Demarco Murray. The 49ers have Frank Gore but took Kendall Hunter. Darren McFadden had a great 2010, yet the Raiders took the fastest RB in the draft in Taiwan Jones. Delone Carter is an interesting long-term prospect for the Colts. Jamie Harper could become the new LenDale White for the Titans, only with actual athleticism. Bilal Powell can hang around and be Shonn Greene's backup. Dion Lewis followed LeSean McCoy and now could back him up. Jordan Todman goes to the Chargers, and the history of Chargers' RBs makes him intriguing. Jacquizz Rodgers can be everything Jerious Norwood was not. Can Johnny White get any touches with Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller in town?

The receivers are the usual grab-bag of talent versus opportunity. Is Julio Jones worthy of a top-five pick since he might be the third option in Atlanta? What about A.J. Green going to a team that might start a rookie QB? Jonathan Baldwin was the surprise third guy taken. Most experts think he had a poor senior season. Titus Young is fast but he's no DeSean Jackson. Greg Little plays for the Browns and was suspended all of last season. Randall Cobb might be the #6 guy on the depth chart for the Packers, but we are talking about the Packers. There are the small-school guys like Jerrel Jernigan, Edmond Gates, and Cecil Shorts. There are the sleepers like Denarius Moore and Niles Paul.

At least in dynasty we know that the rookie QBs have time to develop. I still think Gabbert is the best bet. Maybe Cam Newton will have a Tebow-like impact since he's destined to start. Ponder, Locker, Dalton, and Kaepernick are all lottery tickets. Ryan Mallet might slip and is worth a look. Later round guys like Ricky Stanzi, Nathan Enderle, T.J. Yates, Tyrod Taylor, and Greg McElroy are free agents at best.
The tight end class is weak. Henery the kicker for the Eagles could be a top-five guy as a rookie, but like in the NFL, drafting a kicker always seems like a waste.

Sunday, May 01, 2011

The most clutchness evah

You'd think that when you hear the word "clutch", you think of Joe Carter's World Series-winning home run or Eli's drive to win the Super Bowl. You'd be wrong. Those two wannabees wish they climbed the Mount Everest I scaled last night.

I had my fantastic friend Donald Funk, otherwise known as Dr. Funkenstein, for a night of Wii since the rest of my loser friends prefer to spend time with their families. I had rounds four through seven of the NFL Draft on TiVo and they turned me down like I was a pariah.

That's not important. What's important is my feat. As usual Don and I played head-to-head games and as usual I got too competitive and smacked him around a bit. I do not mean that literally. Don did once hit me with the controller when we played tennis but that's my fault because I'm right-handed and he's left-handed. Now I make him play in the next room.

We were playing the new Mario game, and we were trying to finish up a board. In this fantastic Mario world you have to finish a set of boards before you save. There's not much risk here because we play in tandem and if one guy dies, there's the option to continue. The downside is when both guys run out of lives at the same time, you reset to the previous save point. I'm not sure why when this happens that it feels like a true setback, like in middle school when my fighting fish my mom named after Len Bias died.

We were on the last board, the castle. You struggle through lava and fences with spikes and weird bony critters that you can't ever fully kill. Then you face the big purple boss. The first two times I went through I was like John Elway in the Super Bowl against the 49ers. I wet myself and died quickly.

Don and I made our way through the vertical board. He fell on the spikes, terrible way to go, and it was just me. The only problem was I was on my last guy. And I was little Mario. You can get a mushroom, my least favorite food, to grow into big Mario but I always lost my mojo before the end and was small Mario. I made it through the red doors with no expectation of victory.

If I jumped on the head of the big purple boss three times, we got to save and I was victorious and we could call it an evening because let's be honest, it was eleven on a Saturday night. If the big purple boss jumped and I was on the ground, I'd get stuck and he'd shoot me with the emasculating pink lightening. Otherwise he spun around like a turtle on cocaine and was invincible.

I jumped in with no fear or self-consciousness like Donald Trump. I got the first one. I retreated and jumped at the right time. I avoided the rolling turtle. I made the second jump. At this point my mind told me that it would be super unclutch, like Eli Manning any other time but that Super Bowl, for me to die just then. These are the brain cells I'm trying to kill when I drink. I kept my composure, avoided the guy for a few more seconds and made my final jump. I was victorious.

And that was how I beat the big purple guy. BTW, Don and I beat that board at his house months ago but we were at my house so we had to start from the beginning. Does this make the feat less impressive? Hard to believe I could pull that off.