Saturday, May 28, 2011

Fantasy files: Transition from dynasty to keeper

As the post rookie draft free agency period cools down, it's time for me to take a break from my dynasty team. The sum total of my moves is below:

Adds (veterans)

Mike Vick

Marques Colston

Osi Umenyiora

Adds (rookies)

Cam Newton

Taiwan Jones

Bilal Powell

DeMarco Murray

Jacquizz Rodgers

Vincent Brown

Marques Colston

Denarious Moore

Jordan Cameron

Osi Umenyiora

Casey Matthews

Colin McCarthy

Jaiquawn Jarrett

Quinton Carter

Drops/Traded

Josh Johnson

Josh Freeman

Mike Thomas

Javarris James

Tony Scheffler

Alterraun Verner

Starting lineup, week one will be something like Mike Vick, Matt Forte, Peyton Hillis, Ray Rice, Marques Colston, Hakeem Nicks, Sidney Rice, Chris Cooley, Rob Bironas, Jason Babin, Osi Umenyiora, David Harris, James Harrison, Mario Williams, Dashon Goldson, Charles Tillman, and Jaiquawn Jarrett. The downside of picking up 12 rookies is that it's going to be hard to find veterans to prune, especially if the offseason is compressed any longer.

It's time to move onto my other team. In six weeks or so we'll have to announce
keepers in my local keeper league. I'm fairly set with Eli, Frank Gore, and Hakeem Nicks as my keepers. I might be able to pawn off Darren McFadden on one of the RB-weak squads. Or I could try to get a higher draft pick for Frank Gore who's great when healthy but only once has played the full 16 games. RB is a tough spot especially with two starters and only four roster slots. With bye weeks it's almost impossible to play the handcuff game.

I feel fine with Eli as my keeper QB. He's a steady player who's going to give you 16 games. He had 4000 passing yards for the second year in a row and exceeded 30 TD passes for the first time in career. He did throw a career-high 25 interceptions, and it only seems like all of them came off Nicks' inconsistent hands. His fantasy rank in the past six years has been 5, 10, 13, 13, 10, 9. With 12 teams it seems like having a guy who always finishes around 10th isn't a competitive advantage. Knowing that he's going to end up there is an advantage.

I'm not sure if I am willing to part with Gore and make McFadden my go-to guy. Now, with the addition of a WR/TE flex position last year, the value of running back dropped. The switch to PPR gave a higher advantage to the wideouts and the running backs who catch passes. McFadden finished eighth in RB scoring last year in 13 games. Gore finished 18th in 11 games. McFadden averaged 21 points a game to Gore's 18. McFadden had 10 TDs compared to Gore's 5. The main difference between the two is age. McFadden will be 24 this year and Gore's about to turn 28. McFadden could be a keeper through our entire five-year cycle while Gore might have one more year as a keeper candidate.

At WR I feel I have no choice. Miles Austin, Brandon Marshall, and Vincent Jackson could be top-12 guys but few players have the upside and skill of Hakeem Nicks. I have to find a dance partner for one of those three other guys. If I could get an extra draft pick or two this could be the best draft ever. If it actually happens.

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