Am I Screwed? Part Deux

I have the answer to tonight's "Am I Screwed?" right away. It has to do with Marion Barber,, a centerpiece to my running game. Barber is a starter for both of my dynasty teams. I had to "reach" for the fourth-rounder Barber in two rookie drafts because I owned Julius Jones.

Barber has 42 touchdowns in 852 career touches. That's a touchdown per 20 touches. For comparison, the all-time single-season touchdown leader LaDainian Tomlinson has 141 touchdowns in 3167 touches. That's about a touchdown for every 22 touches. Barber equals efficiency.

I have a friend who used to play flag football the say Marion Barber plays NFL football. The difference is that my friend would have spontaneously combusted like a Spinal Tap drummer if he were to run into an NFL defensive lineman. Barber keeps bashing with the best of them. It's true that he missed time after playing human shield for former Cowboy backup QB Brad Johnson. He's not a machine, after all.

Fantasy experts say that Barber will lose touches to Felix Jones and Tashard Choice. That may be true. Barber ended up with 59% of the Cowboys' rushes last year on a team that finished 25th in the NFL in attempts. I think the attempts go up this year. If Barber gets 15 rushes a game, that's 240 for the year, which I believe means that he will score 12 touchdowns.

Oh yeah, he was the third leading receiver on a team that just said good-bye to their top wideout. That's another potential 60 catches, 40 to be safe. 40 = 2 more touchdowns. Can you use 14 touchdowns on your fantasy team? I got 'em.

If you think that number is too high, consider that in 2006, Barber scored 16 touchdowns on a meager 158 touches. Barry Bonds in all of his alleged PED glory was never that productive.

The only downside here is that I will depend highly on two Cowboys for my fantasy team to be triumphant. It could be worse. They could be Ravens. I'll discuss my Ray Rice/Cedric Peerman combo in a later post.

Am I Screwed? Volume One

In the first edition of Am I Screwed?, I will investigate the 2008 fantasy fortunes of Tony Romo, or Ms. Jessica Simpson. Tony Romo is my starting quarterback in Zealots 34. During the offseason I traded Jake Delhomme to obtain one quarter of the Tampa Bay Bucs mess.

The first question is whether Romo can weather the departure of Terrell Owens. T.O. will play for his fourth team this fall. How did his starting QBs do after he left? Jeff Garcia started 13 games in 2003, Owens's last in San Francisco. Owens caught half of Garcia's 18 touchdown passes. Garcia signed with Cleveland in 2004, so it's safe to call that a fail. By the time Garcia signed with Philadelphia, Owens had moved on.

Donovan McNabb is by far the best quarterback to play with Owens, although all three main starters in Owens' career have been Pro Bowlers. McNabb only started nine games in 2005. This also was the year that featured Owens being suspended by the team, leading to his signing with Dallas in the offseason. McNabb had a good 2006, although he missed six games with another injury.

Romo's first full season as a starter was 2007. He threw for 36 touchdown passes, and Owens caught 15 of them. 2008 was less successful for both. Romo missed three games but still threw 26 touchdowns. Owens caught ten, and was clearly the top receiver.

Sadly, the past doesn't give us much information in this case. Romo struggled as the Cowboys worked their way out of playoff contention. He had three of his four worst games as Dallas finished December 1-3.

Roy Williams was a disaster in 2007, but he was a mid-season acquisition and the team's third target at best with Owens and Jason Witten on the field. Lesser players such as Patrick Crayton and Miles Austin have to step up.

In 39 starts, Romo has 83 touchdowns (including rushing touchdowns). That's a ratio I can live with. He's the NFL active leader in yards per attempt. He throws more interceptions than you'd like to see. Still, I like him over Jay Cutler and his iffy receivers, and Donovan McNabb and his inconsistent health.

In this case, I vote "not screwed". Sadly, there are other positions on the team where the verdict will be otherwise.

White Sox winner

The White Sox shut out the poor Cubbies today, winning the South Side part of the annual cross-town rivalry. It is my opinion, and take it with some sea salt due to my lack of paying attention, that losing a series to the Sox is a sign that you're not ready for prime time. Danks shut out the Cubs, which means he gave up five runs in his previous start. Looking at his recent history, I am wrong. In his last four starts, that's six runs given up in 28.1 innings pitched with a 26/8 strikeout to walk ratio. A 6-6 starting pitcher is about right on a 37-38 team.

I'm still trying to give a football equivalent to the U.S. soccer team giving up a 2-0 lead in the Confederation Cup final against Brazil. Do 100 Americans know what the Confederation Cup is? For a while I thought that a goal in soccer was like a touchdown in football. When you're down 1-0, it feels more like two scores, like maybe 10-0. I'd say that the U.S. leading 2-0, on two shots no less, was like having a 17-0 halftime lead. Instead of the Giants beating the Patriots, it was like the 2008 Lions beating the 2007 Patriots at the half. Now, the U.S. soccer team isn't as bad as the Lions. They aren't quite the Giants either.

In the first two games of the tourney, against world powers Brazil and Italy, the Americans lost by a combined score of 6-1. Due to a miraculous finish, a 3-0 win over Egypt and a 3-0 Brazil win over Italy, the red, white, and blue got a trip to the semifinals. They were lucky enough to meet the Spaniards. Spain is like the Houston Oilers in the 1990s. Always a contender, and they never see a playoff game that they can't choke away. The U.S. prevailed 2-0. In the finals they would play the Brazilians.

The two goals were breathtaking. Goalie Tim Howard made save after save. Victory looked possible. But, in the first minute of the second half Brazil put one in the back of the net. It was weird to realize that this game, being staged in South Africa, was being played in the winter. I wondered why so many players had gloves on. Brazil kept attacking and the U.S. couldn't get a decent counter attack going. When the third goal happened, it was over. It's harder to lose when you have the lead, and a two-goal lead at that. It's back to World Cup qualification for the U.S. I hope they put up a good effort, unlike in 2006 when they finished 0-2-1.

The football lull makes us think that the season is months away. The first preseason game is six weeks from tonight. I think I just gave my wife a grey hair with that comment. I've been trying to prepare for two upcoming drafts. I looked over quarterbacks last week, which wide receivers on the docket this week. I have one draft, an online one, starting in three weeks. July's going to be tough because I have two or three classes on the road to my Web Design/Development Certificate at Emory, along with a "final" project.

The teams that work hardest during the perceived lulls are the ones most prepared for the regular season. One owner, known unfortunately as Tick, in my dynasty league smartly put out a list of players and their "price". Since in Zealots we get to have 60 players now but have to cut to 53 by the regular season, he's setting himself up to get a couple of draft picks out of his tough roster decisions. I bit and took Kevin Jones for a fourth rounder. I have Forte and need the assurance of his backup.

I have history with Jones. In my first dynasty season I traded Keith Bulluck and Anquan Boldin for Jones. Kevin Jones finished the second half of 2004 with more than 900 rushing yards. He is Exhibit A in the case for not taking a player's second half too much to heart. Jones has battled injuries and has not rushed for as much as 700 yards in a season since his rookie year. Veterans are always a safer bet in fantasy, but they are not nearly as fun to pick up. That's my final thought for today.

Oh wait, there's one more. Mr. Funk, Cubs got nothin'. Thank you.

Offseason

While I was at the beach on vacation, I didn't pay much attention to the goings on in the NFL. I missed nothing. I did miss Donte Stallworth's 30-day sentence for vehicular manslaughter.

One month in jail for killing someone makes one think of Mike Vick's 23 months for fighting and killing dogs. I'll post this story from the AJC which shows that the two cases aren't really comparable. Stallworth probably won't play in the NFL this year. Just in case, I picked up Mike Furrey, who I just realized plays for the receiver-poor Browns. It was just one offseason ago that I thought Stallworth might end up a Titan.

I've started looking into players for the upcoming 2009 fantasy season. Today I got an overview of quarterbacks. I found out interesting stats like Kurt Warner has started 16 games in three seasons of his career. In all three, he went to the Super Bowl. There was a six-season gap between 2001 and 2008. Last year he was almost undrafted in our local league. This year, he's a keeper and probably will be the fourth QB taken in redrafts.

I'm not going to have time to fully review all positions and players before my July Masters League draft and my August keeper league draft. Since I know my draft slot in both leagues, I do know some players who I probably won't get. With the 11th pick in the Masters League, I can guarantee that about seven to nine running backs will be out for sure. I'll have to decide between a borderline RB1 and a top WR. If I don't take a QB with my second pick, it's likely that Brees, Brady, and Manning will be off the board by the time I make my third pick. Great. I don't have to look to closely into those three. Guys like Aaron Rodgers, Kurt Warner, Philip Rivers and Donovan McNabb will be in the next tier. I know from vast experience that you really need a stud QB to win.

One thing about Kurt Warner is that you have a good body of work to know what he's capable of doing. If healthy, he's throwing for 4000 yards and 30 touchdowns. You're going to take that to the bank. Then there's the injury situation. Kurt gets banged up because he's as mobile as a snail. The Cardinals' offensive line is mediocre on a good day. It's something to think about.

It's interesting that while Philip Rivers has led the Chargers to three straight division titles, he's won three fewer games each year since his 14-2 mark as a first-year starter. He came off an ACL tear and led the league in yards per attempt and touchdowns. The downside is that the Chargers don't pass that much, 25 in attempts last year. Rivers is like a baseball player who has an above-average number of batted balls that turn into hits. A better defense should help. It's interesting that the Chargers were 20th in rushing attempts in 2008 but 7th in 2007 and 2nd in attempts in 2006. They remained 25th in pass attempts all three years. At least there's one thing you can depend on.

While Rivers had two years to sit on the bench before starting a game, Aaron Rodgers wore the cap and clipboard for three seasons. He had 59 career pass attempts going into last year, making him the QB version of Michael Turner. Rogers finished the year with 32 total touchdowns. The Packers went 6-10, so his personal numbers kind of went under the radar. He has a deep receiving corps, perhaps the deepest in the league. If you look at Rodgers' numbers compared to Favre's 2007, it's hard to tell the difference. The Packers were more pass-heavy in 2007, so I wouldn't vote against a repeat of these numbers. Rodgers was thought to be injury-prone heading into 2008. The team felt good enough with their chances to trade Favre and have only two rookies as backups.

I wouldn't mind having any of these three QBs as my starter. One additonal player who will be interesting to track is Donovan McNabb. McNabb was a first-round selection in our initial keeper league draft in 2001. When I traded for him and immediately passed him off like a hot potato in another deal for a draft pick in my dynasty league, I assumed that I was passing on a player in his final year or two. The Eagles recently extended McNabb's contract, which means the short-lived Kevin Kolb experiment is over. It seems like all the Eagles did this offseason was add shiny new toys for McNabb.

We know that the Eagles love to pass, especially the short pass. They generally throw between 150 and 200 more times than they run every year. That's good news for fantasy owners. McNabb isn't as much of a running option but he's a good bet for 25 touchdowns.

I think I've talked myself into waiting for at least the 5th round for a quarterback. I'll have to see how the backups shake out since that's the focus in my keeper league.

Retraction/apology

This will be my 350th blog. In these blogs I've had about half a dozen comments. I just got my first comment that requires me to print a retraction.

In my previous blog, I stated that Muhammad Ali didn't know where he was. I'll post the comment here:

Muhammad Ali lives in Michigan. And he's well aware of where he is. The Parkinson's affects his motor skills but his cognitive function is intact.

So there's that. I apologize to Ali. If we ever meet, he has the right to punch me in the face. Since he might not be able to do that, I can punch myself in the face.

In conclusion, Detroit can still suck it because the Penguins won. The Red Wings have 11 Stanley Cup titles. The Penguins have three. I can think of many losses less devastating than a Game 7 the year after you won the title. Trust a man who cheers for the Titans and White Sox, two franchises that have much dust on their few trophies.

Feel free to follow my vacation diary at Zachrilige. Today I'll write about the first day, aka setting the scene.

One Game, One Champion

I was going to eat my panang chicken and TiVo through the pre-game. I decided to hang out and see what NBC was up to. When they showed the announcers performing mock pre-game speeches in empty locker rooms, I guffawed. It had the right combination of levity and comedy. Lou Holtz couldn't have done it better.

The last road team to win a championship game 7 was the Pirates in the 1979 World Series. If the last time something "championship" happened and it involves the Pirates, it has been a long time.

In the first few minutes, Detroit's making more plays. If they can overcome these jitters, it might work out. I don't know if there's any other sport equivalent to winning the puck against the boards only to get crushed by the guy who "lost" the race.

If you name your son "Evgeni", he has no choice but to be tough, right? He has a better chance than your Jimmy or Jason.

Muhammad Ali is wearing a Red Wings jersey. What's the appearance fee for him these days? And where does he think he is?

It's time for the first power play and the first "NFL safety takes out slot receiver, except on ice" hit of the game. The Penguins had possession for most of the two minutes but they weren't able to get a clear shot. Nice D there by Detroit.

As the game progresses, I'll throw in some links to great jerseys. Here's the 1980 team USA sweater. It's hard to beat that.

Here's another cool one. If it's between that and the Charleston Chiefs jersey, I just don't know.

I am as excited about the upcoming Transformers movie as my wife is about the upcoming football season. She does enjoy the hockey intermission back massages.

The Red Wings turn it over and the Penguins take the lead. Being in the lead in Game 7 . . . priceless.

We have a rare four-on-four situation. The announcer pulls the "Red Wings haven't scored on a four-on-four situation" jinx. Stupid announcer.

You can't go wrong with old-school CCCP, as seen in Clerks.

Crosby's going to the locker room. . . not good.

Max Talbot takes it top shelf. Oh my, it's 2-0. I did not expect this.

If you are a fan and you can get to Detroit, is there any way you don't try to make it to game seven? There aren't many moments like this in sports.

Here's another winner jersey. Why doesn't Hartford still have a team?

The Red Wings are trying to get the last-minute goal. It was close, but no dice. Penguins are 20 minutes from a title.

To prove my utility as a husband, I watched an episode of Dress My Nest with the wife during the intermission. I am well-rounded.

The Red Wings get an early penalty opportunity. Crosby may not make it back.

I love seeing the guy with white gloves wiping down the Stanley Cup. Someone's drinking Iron City out of that cup pretty soon. Either that or Miller Lite.

And when I thought Detroit seemed out of it, they score and cut the lead to one with a little more than six minutes to go. It's going to be pucker time in Pittsburgh.

200 seconds to go and Crosby's out. One breakaway is all they need to ice this one.

Wings hit the crossbar with 101 seconds to go. It was the bottom of the crossbar. 77 seconds to go. Timeout, Detroit.

It's going to be 6 on 5 in a second. Offside called with 32 seconds to go. Come on guys, one more clear.

It's tipped out with 16.1 seconds to go. Puck may go to center, which is a good thing. Puck freezes again with 6.5. OK, it's pretty much down to this face off. Two shots are deflected and the Penguins win the title.

I guess Pittsburgh is OK if the Pirates have another losing season.

Penguins/Red Wings, Third Period

What happens when a man blogs after drinking 2/3 of a bottle of Two Buck Chuck Shiraz? We're about to find out. The Penguins lead 1-0. It's tight and tense. A bunch of Canadians are really excited.

I like Pierre McGuirre on the bench. Can you imagine a real NFL analyst on the sideline during the game? This guy's maybe two feet from each team.

If I was as medicated as my cat, I'd be taking about 15 pills a day. This is a high-maintenance feline.

Kennedy scores. There's nothing like the chest-bump of the glass after a goal. Can't beat it. Hockey players have too much equipment to have inappropriate celebrations.

We're on the verge of game seven, on vacation eve for me. I have important things to do that night, like buy beer.

Four draft picks by the Sox in the books. Three offensive guys and one pitcher.

Whew. I watched Penguins fight off two power play opportunities for the Red Wings. We're down to the final four minutes. Can they hold it off for the final 200 seconds?

I like that the Penguins are pushing it in the end instead of trying to keep the Red Wings out of the net.

Man. One-on-one breakaway is pushed away by Fleury. It's like the final five minutes of the Super Bowl.

Broadcaster call of the game: "There's lots of room between the legs."

About 12 people fit in the crease there with 13.2 seconds left. It's a close one. Defender ended up playing goalie at the end. Three saves by a freaking defender. That's as close you can get to giving up a tying goal without actually doing it.

The Penguins win, and it's time to go to Detroit. I like that the backup goalie wears a hat, but no one else does.

Penguins/Red Wings, Second Period

I watched an entire "Daily Show" during the intermission. Jared Mitchell is "ridiculously excited to join the White Sox." When do we tell him that he's probably going to Winston-Salem?

I kind of respect how Chris Osgood wears a normal goalie mask. There's no crazy artwork, just plain red. Any guy who's won two Stanley Cups can wear whatever he wants.

Gordon Beckham is the quickest White Sox to get to the majors since Alex Fernandez. Beckham is 0-13 in his MLB debut.

I'd like to go to Twitter or ESPN but since my TiVo is about 11 minutes behind, I don't want to hear about the future, so to speak.

The Penguins are going all out to block shots on D. It's the best I've seen them play defensively all series. There's nothing like blocking a puck going a hundred miles an hour. These guys have to be seriously bruised.

The original Taking of Pelham 1-2-3 was a taut, very 70s thriller. I think I'll pass on the remake. I think remakes of semi-obscure films should get updated names. Who's with me?

So far this game feels like the Penguins want it a bit more and Detroit thinks that they can win it at home. If the Penguins make a mistake, the Red Wings will take advantage.

With their second pick, the White Sox take Joshua Phegley, a catcher from Indiana University. He might be like Tyler Flowers in that he can hit but may not be a major league catcher.

Penguins get a break when a puck hits off the post and is cradled by Fleury. This one-goal game is too tight.

The Penguins have a big flurry in the final minute that Osgood pushes aside. We're going to the third period.

Oh yeah, the eight-time shut out White Sox are losing to Dontrelle Willis. Good times.

Penguins/Red Wings, First Period

We're at the 17:06 point in the first period of game six in the Stanley Cup finals. If the Red Wings win, they will celebrate a championship in Pittsburgh for the second straight year. Has a team won consecutive titles on the road in the same game of the series before?

It's also the "prime time" start of the MLB draft. There is much excitement. By some people. I did see a mock draft, which has to be a first. I have to see how many rounds there are. When you look back at drafts' past, a "good" draft has two guys who made the major leagues. That's slightly different than the NFL.

Power play for the Penguins. The Red Wings have had the lead in all five games. After watching a lot of playoff hockey, I think I can name four Red Wings, if that.

In the NFL, a player is stuck if he declares for the draft and hires an agent. In baseball, a player who isn't a college senior doesn't sign an agent but has an "adviser" until signing a deal. A high school senior can sign but has a potential college scholarship as leverage. A two-year college sophomore can be drafted, not sign, but sign after another year of school. A college junior can use a senior year or independent league as leverage. And if you're good, you're going to play in Ogden, Utah, this fall. I don't wonder why America hasn't bought in yet.

Penguins blew the power play. Bartolo Colon is on the DL for the Sox, which means that Aaron Poreda will make his major league debut this week. If you're in a fantasy league, I'd wait to pick him up. Poreda needs to work on his secondary pitches.

The White Sox selected Jared Mitchell of LSU with their 23rd overall pick. Mitchell is called an "athlete", which is exactly what you want with your first round pick. Jordan Danks is the center fielder of the future, but there is need for a guy who might take over for Jermaine Dye in a year or two. The ESPN guy calls it a reach, which is pretty much how the Sox roll every year when they have a pick outside the top ten.

The Penguins have a big shot advantage, but haven't drawn blood. If the Red Wings take the lead, and so far they have in every game, it will be tight sphincter time.

Power play number two is on the way, after this commercial break.

Major League Baseball has things figured out in one way. In the first round, it's four minutes between picks. The draft is a three-day affair. Dude.

Penguins blow another power play. I'm paying more attention to the MLB draft, which is really sad.

It's 0-0 after one period. I'll be back after this short break.

Present > Future

I did it. I gave into temptation. I had to get back into my rookie dynasty draft's fifth round to get a tight end. Initially my offer was going to be a 2010 4th rounder. To get 5.03, that would be an even deal. But what if I could give up another player and not lose a pick? I went that route.

A couple of weeks ago, I offered my dad Kirk Morrison for Osi Umenyiora. I thought that was an even deal. As you can see, Kirk Morrison is a steady performer. I also thought about offering my second round pick for Umenyiora, which meant I thought that Morrison was worth a second round pick.

I was going to offer Morrison straight up for the 5.03. At the last minute I updated to trade to add a 2010 5th rounder. The trade was quickly accepted. I fell for the now trap.

Morrison has almost 500 tackles in his four-year career, nearly 400 of them have been solo. He's not a pass-rusher, as is evidenced by his three career sacks. Still, you're looking at a guy who will be a starter at linebacker perhaps for the next five to seven years. While I did get Morrison as an undrafted rookie, what I got in return has to be pretty solid to make up for the middle linebacker's production.

I drafted Chase Coffman. I fell for the double whammy of NOW and a homer pick. Has there ever been a solid Bengal TE? Other than David Ross, who shares the all-time lead with 12 receptions in a Super Bowl, there's not much.

That 2010 5th rounder better be high in the round.