Training Camp

Twitter has put a whole new spin on training camp. I can get updates from beat writers, fantasy guys, and random people who go to the practices. I'm not sure if I feel more informed, but it's interesting. What did I learn today? No one worked out Vick. Vick appeared in court with his bankruptcy lawyers. If I were a bankruptcy lawyer, I'd want to get paid in cash. Basically Vick watch has taken over for Favre watch without any slip in over-reportage.

First round draft picks are starting to sign. Kenny Britt of the Titans, aka the Human Hamstring Injury, is unsigned. He's the last Titan draft pick to sign. I think he'll be in camp in a day or two. The most interesting unsigned guys are Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, and Jeremy Maclin.

If I were Richie Incognito, the only member of the Rams offensive line not to sign a giant contract I might be more pissed off than usual. Jason Smith just signed and he certainly got $30 million plus in bonuses. Jason Brown signed a huge free agent deal and so did guard Jacob Bell. You can't blame the Rams for locking up their offensive line. Maybe Marc Bulger won't be such a rag doll this year.

While I am enjoying my zealots masters draft, I think I'm glad that after this one is over I have one draft left this year. Drafting is fun but team maintenance is a time-consuming gig. While I'm figuring out who my sixth wideout is going to be (Nate Burleson), teams in my league are making trades. I have my big draft in a couple of weeks and I have to be prepared. They say no true war plan survives the first minute of combat. No draft strategy survives well in the live format, where you get real distraction and a real large amount of alcohol.

Willie Parker Investigation

I drafted Willie Parker. Fantasy experts, most notably the certifiable (in a good way) Taz, think he’s in for a statistical fall. Yes, that's Taz trying to look like an "edgy" Dylan McDermott in the Dark Blue ads.

I thought he was a player worth investigating. Did I make a colossal mistake drafting him as my RB2 with pick 6.02 in a redraft?

Let’s see what the numbers say.

Willie Parker started 11 games last year. He missed five games with knee and shoulder concerns. Any time a back misses time, especially one getting into his late 20s, there are concerns that he's lost it. He alleviated concerns with a 146-yard performance in the divisional playoffs against the Chargers. Let's forget the sub-par numbers in the AFC Championship and Super Bowl.

While the Steelers drafted Rashard Mendenhall as the potential stud back of the future, and Mewelde Moore filled in brilliantly when Mendenhall went shoulder-to-shoulder with Ray Lewis and lost, Parker was the man again when he returned.
Let's look at the Steeler run game as a whole. The offensive line was not stalwart. While the team was 9th in rushing attempts, the Stillers were 29th in yards per attempt. Parker averaged 3.8 yards an attempt. As a fill-in, Moore averaged 4.2 yards an attempt. Mendenhall was much worse, but he only had 19 attempts in two games.

There's reason for optimism. The Steelers averaged 4, 4.2, and 4.2 yards per attempt in the past three seasons. Last year's 460 attempts was the lowest in four years. In 2007, when the offense was better as a whole, the team had 51 more attempts. That's good if you want Parker.

Parker has two 300-carry seasons. Can he do it again? 300 carries averages to about 19 per game. Can the Steelers give Parker 18 carries and save 5-10 for the shiny new Mendenhall in the garage? Sure. Before Parker got hurt, Moore was mainly a kick returner who never saw the backfield.

You can impress your leaguemates by pointing out that Parker had the fewest catches of a starting RB last year. Michael Turner and Brandon Jacobs had six catches, which is just pathetic. Parker had three. Yep, just three more than I had. Should that be a concern for 2009? Parker is not a guy to target in PPR leagues, although yards and touchdowns do, and he'll be fine on both counts. Parker caught 23 passes in 2007, which is better than three, right? Moore may be the third-down back. I don't see Mendenhall in that role.

What about the goal-line role? Gary Russell was that guy last year, and he's gone. So it's between Mendenhall and Parker. It's hard to count on Parker as a big TD guy, since in four years as a starter he has 5, 16, 2, and 5 touchdowns. What looks like the outlier there? Also, the Steelers were a bottom-half offense last year. It didn't stop them from winning the Super Bowl.

Parker should be a solid starter. Think 280/1150/6 with 20/140 receiving. Is that a RB2? Last year's #18 running back, according to my local keeper league, was Kevin Smith. He finished with 239/975/8 and 39/286. Yeah, I just talked myself into the pick. I hope Mendenhall continues being a underdeveloped spread running back.

Master of my own domain

I'm in the Zealots "master's" league. This league is actually four sets of leagues, and the participants are the champions of the 48 Z leagues from last year. I thought when joining that I would be squaring off with the "best of the best". After witnessing a few rounds of our draft, I'd say that some are, and some might have been just lucky.

After participating in a draft and not fully understanding the rules, I see how a league's setup is critical to how you draft. In my local keeper league, we only can have four WRs and four RBs, so handcuffing is a dicey proposition. Most zealot leagues have rosters of 53 players. This league has 32 roster slots with the same number of starters.

I have a theory on player tiers. Tier 1 represents the elite players. In the first round I took Chris Johnson. I consider him to be an elite, almost impossible to replace player. In the second round I took Randy Moss. He has the all-time single-season touchdown record. I would call that elite. In the third round I traded up to get Tom Brady. He also has some sort of TD record. In the fourth round I had a quandary.

In this league you can start three running backs. That means running backs are overvalued. How overvalued? Tim Hightower in the fourth round overvalued. That was obviously an outlier pick. With my fourth pick I could take one of those soon to scarce tailbacks or I could go another direction. I saw Brandon Marshall as the top remaining wideout. I would learn later, because I always tend to find these things out later, that he has a court appearance on a domestic abuse charge in August. Oh, Brandon. Still, I stand by the pick. He's an elite talent. He and Wes Welker are the only two wideouts in the NFL who have gathered more than 100 catches in the past two years. Yeah, Welker was still on the board.

Since I traded up to get Brady, my next pick isn't until 6.02. I'm not sweating the RBs rushing off the board, especially Hightower. That's because I have a plan for this draft.

Let me continue with my player tiers. The first one is the elite talents. After that, you have the guys who are probably in the top 20% of their profession but lead to a big yawn when you take them on draft day. You take these Tier 2 guys (I like Hines Ward as an example) as good values. If Ward goes in the 8th round and you can snag him in the 10th, you're golden. With Tier 3, you are either borderline desperate or locking up a position, like the Giant running game by taking Brandon Jacobs in the 2nd, Ahmad Bradshaw in the 9th, Danny Ware in the 18th and Andre Brown in the 19th. You either have a "hunch" or are taking a major flier. Matt Ryan was a Tier 3 guy last year.

Tier 4 is when you're really drunk at your live draft and pick the guy whose name you can still read.

How can I scoff when every team's going to have a third running back before I get my second? I'm playing the buckshot method of running back selection. Since there are 32 slots, I can have six or seven running backs. With those slots, I'm going to take one guy from six or seven different teams. Most of these guys will be backups or third stringers. It's like I'll be buying a few lottery tickets. Remember that last year Mewelde Moore was a stud for a few weeks. In 2007 Earnest Graham shot out of nowhere. Rudi Johnson was an unknown when he stepped in for Corey Dillon. I'm looking for starters on bad teams or backups in good running situations (the latter three guys for the Giants would fit). I'll probably cave and get a startable RB with pick 6.02, but my third starter will be out of this pool. I have a feeling that it will work out for the best.

Warming up the engine

The NFL offseason seems like one of those boy scout trips one may have taken as a youth. Part of the trip involves a long hike, designed to test one's premature manhood. There's a big hill at the end, and as you climb it, it only seems to grow larger. The final stretch is practically vertical, like going up the side of Stone Mountain. We're in that stretch.

I am fine with my perpetual state of semi-readiness for the upcoming fantasy football season. I completed a draft-only league. As you can tell in this one, I'm saving all of my creativity for my roster, what with my franchise named "Zach". I had fun just drafting, as I watched all the wide receivers pass me by in this PPR format. I'm sure that Justin Gage and Greg Camarillo will lead me to victory. The WR scarcity had to do with the PPR format and (I found this out later) that there are only five roster spots per team with three starters. I have Wes Welker and will need around 20 catches a week from him. Come on, Tom, do it for me.

My Zealots Masters draft started yesterday as I was trapped in a Flash class all day. I assumed that the dreaded final 2:30 to 4:30 stretch would be easier as these masters of their own domain (had to use it) would make their picks in an orderly fashion. Three owners had picked by the time I left, and only overnight did I make my first two selections.

I told myself that I would heed the "smart" advice of the year which said to go for the stud wideouts. I'd go WR/WR, which a year ago would seem insane. The running back position is like that girl in high school who would date you for a while, dump you, and take you back on a whim a few months later, only to repeat the cycle. Oh, the memories.

In the end I couldn't totally give in. I couldn't trust that good enough RBs would be left at 3.11 and 4.02. Plus, Chris Johnson was there at 1.11. I took him and Randy Moss. I really believe in the New England passing game.

There always seems to be one more need than draft pick available. My keeper league turns into redraft this year, as we go full redraft in 2010. I have the second pick. Sadly, I think I will not be able to keep LT. The same people who said he was done last offseason are ranking him in the top seven. I kept Matt Forte over Tomlinson. I thought LT would make it to my 1.02 pick but I think he's the best of the leftovers by far. That leaves me taking someone like Brandon Jacobs. Jacobs scored 15 touchdowns last year. No one remembers that the year before, with the same excellent offensive line, he only scored six. I'm tempted to trade down and get a high second round pick, assuming that a better wideout is more valuable than a relatively worse running back.

Oh yeah, I forgot the original point of that paragraph. Since I draft so high, there's a lot of focus on my first three picks. I know I'll end up with at least one running back and one receiver. What do I do with the third pick? I usually take a running back (Forte was gold last year), but I could use a quarterback since I think Philip Rivers will make a Roethlisberger-esque drop into the high teens/low twenties in touchdowns this year. Grabbing one of the first quarterbacks means waiting until 4.11 to get RB3. It's a gamble.

Last year guys like Aaron Rodgers and my man Rivers were there for the taking in the fourth round. I don't feel that kind of depth this year. I also don't feel that a ton of rookie running backs are going to be super valuable. Last year's crop might have been the best ever. There are six second-year backs listed in the latest footballguys.com redraft rankings. Everyone knows Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton, Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, and Jonathan Stewart. What about Darren McFadden, last year's top-drafted running back? Some people expect that Rashard Mendenhall will take a large chunk of the Steelers' running game. Ray Rice might start for the Ravens. Felix Jones averaged 8.9 yards a carry last year and should get 150 touches this year. Tashard Choice performed well inc consecutive weeks against the Steelers, Giants, and Ravens last December. Even Peyton Hillis should get a decent workload for the Broncos. I wouldn't hold out hope for Jamaal Charles and Ryan Torain. Let's just forget that I drafted Torain over Slaton last year.

By pick 3.02, I expect that six to eight of those guys will be gone. It's going to be the crucial pick in my draft. I have 27 days left to figure it out.

Team Fantasy Preview Peters Out

He can be long-winded, but Michael Lombardi always brings it. He includes a fan perspective on Steve McNair the player that's pretty dead on.

I liked the idea of having team fantasy previews. I really did. As I continued to struggle with the daily task, I realized a few things:

I couldn't be as thorough as I wanted to be.

I wasn't learning much "new" information.

I knew others could do this better.

A vast majority of NFL players, albeit exceptional athletes, are marginal fantasy prospects at best.

There's a tipping point in a draft when you start to fade out and wonder if any of the players you're going to take really are going to matter. While I haven't quite reached that point in my "Whizmaster" draft-only league, I'm getting close.

The addition of IDP makes it a little more interesting. When you start getting into the fourth RB and fifth WRs, then it's time to look at your linebackers, defensive ends, and defensive backs. Do I take Greg Camarillo, the second (at best) wideout for the Dolphins, coming off a mid-season ACL tear but with 80-catch potential, or Osi Umenyiora, who missed all of 2008 but was a stud before that? I ended up with both.

I'm starting to think that 80% of stress related to the fantasy season would be eliminated by having draft-only leagues. Draft, forget, and enjoy your "real" games while the computer figures out who's starting.

I wonder if this recent hot streak means that the Sox are contenders or that they're just going to be slightly better than mediocre. The only shot they have at playoff contention is to trade for Roy Halladay. That would gut the farm system, which is actually not terrible anymore. The Sox signed their first-round pick, College World Series MVP Jared Mitchell, and promptly put him on the DL at low-A Kannapolis.

I'm reading Jeff Pearlman's book on the Cowboys' dynasty of the early 90s. It's a good read so far.

Fantasy Team Previews: Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers

As Keanu Reeves once eloquently said, "Whoa". I'm trying a two-fer today.

Much was expected of the Packers and Bears last year. The Bears were done in by a uncharacteristically bad defense that couldn't stop the pass. The Packers were done in by a defense that couldn't stop the run. They also lost six games by four points or less. That's gotta hurt. We'll go position by position.

Quarterback

Prior to 2008, Kyle Orton was just The Guy Who Was Slightly Better than Rex Grossman. Now he's The Guy Who Was Thrown Away for Jay Cutler. Cutler is the best Bear quarterback perhaps ever. I'm sorry, Sid Luckman fans. Do not forget that he had two 90-catch receivers last year. The leading receiver for the Bears last year was a running back. As a fan you'd rather have a good QB and iffy receivers than the other way around. Jay will push 4000 yards passing and be a solid starting fantasy QB.

Save a compelling relief performance against the Cowboys in 2007, we hadn't seen anything from Aaron Rodgers since his free fall on draft day 2005. All Rodgers did was total 32 touchdowns and make Packer fans forget a little about that guy with the beard. Rodgers is a good quarterback with fantastic receivers. He has been injury prone in the past, but won't slide much further than the fourth QB in redrafts.

Running Back

For a season, Matt Forte has broken the Bear drafted running back curse. Call him the anti-Cedric Benson. He led the team in receptions and was the workhorse. I doubt that he'll lead the team in receptions again, although 50 catches is probable. Detractors will point to the 3.9 yards per carry. The offensive line was rubbish last year. Pure rubbish. Orlando Pace and Chris Williams will help at tackle. Kevin Jones should get more carries as the primary backup. Forte's price might be a tad too high for your tastes this year.

Ryan Grant had the same paltry 3.9 per carry average. Spending most of his offseason clamoring for a new contract, Grant was not at full strength last year. He's going to be the team's main runner, with Brandon Jackson as the third-down back. DeShawn Wynn and Kregg Lumpkin will battle for playing time. Ryan's should be a good RB2 in 2009.

Wide Receivers

There's one word that comes to mind when the subject of Bear wideouts is brought up. Puke. You'd think that Devin Hester forgot how to return kicks last year since he spent too much time working on his wide receiver "craft". Not so much. His numbers were Bobby Wade-esque. Cutler can throw the deep ball, so maybe he'll get a few of those 80-yard touchdowns. I can't vote for his consistency. As for the rest, go ahead and pick the winner between Earl Bennett, Johnny Knox, Juaquin Iglesisas, Rashied Davis, Brandon Rideau and Derek Kinder.

Bear fans would remove a pinky finger for one of the Packers' top four wideouts. Greg Jennings is the number one guy. What's not to like out of the 80 catches, 16.2 yards per catch, 9 touchdowns, and his rugged good looks? The former number one and still all around quality guy is Donald Driver. He passed 1000 receiving yards for the fifth straight year, albeit barely. He's going to lose some time to the youngsters Jordy Nelson and James Jones. These two represent nothing but upside. Unless they suck.

Tight Ends

The Bears have two receivers in tight end form. Greg Olsen catches passes when he's not pretending to block. He may not start every game, but he's going to catch 60 passes, and few tight ends do that. Desmond Clark is the backup whose numbers have dwindled ever since Olsen joined the team. Clark is useful if Olsen gets hurt or is limited.

Donald Lee returned to fantasy tight end earth last year. His only saving grace was the five touchdown receptions. He's a fantasy backup, and not much more.

Mason Crosby and Robbie Gould are top kicking options.

Team Defense

Bear D big numbers: 27 sacks, 22 interceptions, 14 fumbles recovered, 3 defensive touchdowns, one kick return touchdown. The Bears D is still a name D and will be drafted higher than they deserve. Only a full return of Hester as a kick returner makes this defense worthy of starting.

Packer D big numbers: 27 sacks, 22 interceptions, seven defensive touchdowns, two return touchdowns. Wow. If you think touchdowns are variable, defensive return TDs are doubly so. I like that Will Blackmon is a dedicated returner. Other than that, there's not much to like since this defense is switching to the 3-4, and there will be growing pains.

IDP

For the Bears, you want to own Adewale Ogunleye (DE), Brian Ulracher and Lance Briggs (LB, Briggs is better), Charles Tillman (CB), and Kevin Payne (SS).

For the Packers, remember that Aaron Kampman who used to be a good DE is now an OK outside linebacker. I would take Nick Barnett's production over A.J. Hawk's "waiting for it" potential. Nick Collins (FS) and Atari Bigby (SS) in the secondary are good selections as well.

The offenses are good. The defenses need work. I'd bet on a resurgence by the Bears on the defensive side, whereas the Packers might have the best offense in the league. Seriously.

Fantasy Team Preview: Minnesota Vikings

Let's look at the Minnesota Vikings of Brett Favre. Wait, they haven't announced the name change yet? My bad.

In 2008 the Vikes appeared to be one QB away from Super Bowl contention. Were they an old QB with a questionable shoulder away? We may find out really soon.

The Favre situation is huge for Vikings fans. It's not as epic for fantasy football fans. If you owned Favre last year, you lived the life of a Jet fan, or more accurately, Charlie Brown trying to kick the football. Favre has never finished lower than 14th as a fantasy quarterback. Last year was that year. His December will make most folks shy away from him until the middle of the QB backup run. If you can handle ridicule, give him a shot. Sage Rosenfels, the former starter, is like Favre without the Wrangler commercials. He'll take chances, make some big plays, and sometimes do it for his own team.

If you have the number one draft pick, take Adrian Peterson and enjoy a beverage. He's not guaranteed to finish number one. In fact, he's been the number three RB in his two NFL seasons. He just has the best chance of being that guy. 384 touches might be a concern. If I were the Vikings, I'd run him into the ground Earl Campbell style. If you draft Peterson, take Chester Taylor later. Taylor can give you about 75% of A-Pete's performance in a pinch.

Bernard Berrian was supposed to be the difference-maker at wideout that the Vikings craved. He caught three passes a game, which is not WR1 material. He did make the most of them, averaging more than 20 yards a catch including a 99-yard reception against his former team. I see him as a 1000-yard receiver this year. He'll have more catches especially with a more gunslinging quarterback.

Percy Harvin is a weapon. He's the most likely guy to be the Eddie Royal or DeSean Jackson of the 2009 season. In college he was a receiver and sometimes running back in the spread offense. The Vikings need to get the ball in his hands. They're also trying to get him to return kicks, which adds value in leagues that consider such things. Remember that even if he gets the occasional hand-off that it won't be more than once or twice a game and will not be a consistent point-earner.

I fell for the Sidney Rice hype. He struggled in his second year due to injuries and the inability to play wideout. To get on the field he's going to have to outplay Percy Harvin. Don't forget "Bobby Wade, the slot receiver. I mean forget him in terms of fantasy usefulness, unless a 53/645/2 line excites you.

Once you gave up on him and stopped making fun of the Vikings for signing him, Visanthe Shiancoe (spell that three times fast) became fantasy relevant. Don't get too excited, as most of his value came on the seven touchdowns. If he gets 50 catches and five touchdowns, consider him a fantasy starter, and one more reason why the tight end position is really boring.

Ryan Longwell is the kicker. He probably has the best golf handicap on the Vikings.

Viking D big numbers: 45 sacks, 12 interceptions, 26 fumbles recovered, 2 defensive touchdowns, one return touchdown. You're not getting the Viking D for cheap.

Jaren Allen is the star of the Viking defensive line. He's usually good for 12+ sacks and will be close to the top DE taken. Ray Edwards is on the other side and should have good matchups since the offensive line has to pay attention to Allen, Kevin Williams and Pat Williams. Kevin Williams is one of the top defensive tackles and a pretty good DL pick. Pat Williams is more of a space-eater. The Williams' brothers (not literally) are appealing a four-game suspension, so keep an eye on the situation.

Chad Greenway is the top LB. It's often confusing that the weak side linebacker is the strong fantasy play. E.J. Henderson, the middle linebacker, is another big tackle guy. Ben Leber is the strong-side backer. Use his name to (a) impress people at parties or (b) depress your wife because of your encyclopedic football knowledge.

Usually cornerbacks aren't big tackle guys. Antoine Winfield is an exception. He's one of the best. Cedric Griffin on the other side is no slouch. While free safety Madieu Williams should put up good numbers after missing time with injuries last year, keep an eye on second-year strong safety Tyrell Johnson.

As you can see, the Vikings are clearly one Favre away from winning the Favre Bowl.

Fantasy Team Preview: Detroit Lions

I'll be brief with the Lions. Before I begin, I'll post a few words of warning for fantasy football drafters. Know your Steve Smiths and Adrian Petersons. If you meant to select Steve Smith of Carolina and put Steve Smith of New York on your predraft list, hope that you're in a league of people who have feelings. Yes, I was talked into doing a draft-only league, which is freaking brilliant. Draft your team and every week your best scorers are automatically selected. No waivers, no hours spent poring over injury reports. Just draft and forget. I may pass on predrafting, though.

I was ousted from my perch as Wii Sports champion by my wife. My bowling game started going downhill recently, but I thought I was pretty good in golf. Sadly I lost both, and in a four-player showdown at the Funk Sports grill I came in fourth more than once. It's sad to see a former champion reduced to such a state.

The Lions were historically bad last year. While they don't expect to be much better, look for a few fantasy stars.

Last year's surprising rookie QB turns were made by players who entered the draft after being fifth-year seniors. This year's rookie QB "stars" are juniors who left school early. Still, Matthew Stafford could be the starter on day one, not just because of his crazy price tag but talent. He's a QB3 with upside and a possible future starter in your dynasty leagues.

If you have a moment, look at Kevin Smith's last year at Central Florida. He was a monster with more than 2000 yards rushing. Most people thought that his decision to enter the draft last year was unwise. He lucked out, ending up on a Lion team that had just jettisoned their former first-round running back in Kevin Jones. Smith, not he of Clerks fame, finished 2008 with 20-carry games in six of his last eight. He has top 12 potential.

When it comes to Lion receivers, it's Megatron and everyone else. Calvin Johnson's meh rookie season was soon forgotten as he averaged 17.1 yards a catch with guys like Dan Orlovsky throwing him the ball. It's not inconceivable to see him as the top wideout this year even with a rookie quarterback. The rest of the receivers are forgettable, with Bryant Johnson, Dennis Northcutt, Ronald Curry, and rookie Derrick Williams fighting for the few targets that will be left.

Rookie tight end Brandon Pettigrew will start. He's a blocking tight end who can catch, and with the Lions' offensive line, he'll be asked to stay in and block quite often.

Jason Hanson is old, but he does kick in a dome.

Team D big numbers: 28 sacks, 4 interceptions (really), and 31 fumbles. The kick/punt return game should be better, but this is a waiver wire D.

At DE, Dewayne White is a decent starter. Cliff Avril is the up-and-coming youngster. The large and in charge Grady Jackson is there to help the defensive tackle position.

Ernie Sims is the team's top linebacker. Larry Foote, signed after the Steelers said "bye", should start at MLB and could help your team. Julian Peterson is a big-play guy.

A starting duo of rookie Louis Delmas and Daniel Bullocks should be good at safety, since the guys up front may not be making a ton of tackles. Cornerbacks Anthony Henry and Philip Buchanon should be avoided in a way that opposing quarterbacks will be targeting them.

The core of Stafford/Smith/Johnson has promise. They need help. A lot of help.

Fantasy Team Preview: Washington Redskins

What the Redskins weren't in 2008 was an offensive juggernaut. A team that finished 8th in rushing and last in interceptions thrown was 28th in points scored. A 7-4 record in November turned into an 8-8 finish. Rookie coach Jim Zorn is back. The skill players are back. Yet, most people consider this a fourth-place team in the touch NFC East.

The constant refrain on Jason Campbell is that he's had a different offensive coordinator from college through his three years as a pro. This year, he has continuity. He also listened to offseason chatter about the Redskins trading for Jay Cutler or Mark Sanchez. Campbell smartly made no negative comments and is still the starter. His six interceptions is laudable. 14 total touchdowns is less so. He could be a fantasy backup, but you're not going to be excited about it.

Doesn't it seem like Clinton Portis has been in the league longer than seven years? He finished with almost 1500 yards rushing and 1700 total yards. He's not the sexy pick that he was when averaging 5.5 yards a carry during his two years in Denver. Fantasy experts worry about the magic 370 touches as a sign that a back's going to suffer in the following season. Portis had 372 touches in 2007 and 370 in 2008. He may slip to 360 this year. Ladell Betts is the backup worth rostering in deeper leagues.

The Redskins, owners of pro sports' most offensive name, spent two high draft picks on wideouts last April. Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly had 18 catches total. Brandon Marshall had 18 catches in one game. Thomas could start this year and has sleeper potential. Last year's #3 receiver for Washington, Antwaan Randle-El, had 53 catches. Excited yet?

Santana Moss has been a fantasy tease since his breakout #3 finish in 2005. Last year he finished with 79 catches, 1044 yards, and six touchdowns, and another one via punt return. Last I checked, he was ranked around 23rd among receivers, so he could be a slight value.

The real number two wideout for the Redskins is Chris Cooley. He might have been the last good player to come out of Utah State. He finished eighth among tight ends for one reason. He caught one touchdown pass. His previous career low was six. He set a career high in yards and receptions. Considering how little you're hearing about the second-year wideouts and tight end Fred Davis, I'd say that Cooley represents draft-day value.

Shaun "not of the dead" Suisham and Dave Rayner will battle for he kicker job. Considering how bad the Skins were at scoring touchdowns, this could be a good pick as your K2.

The D does not look stout with its 2008 big numbers of 24 sacks, 13 interceptions, 11 fumbles recovered and one special teams touchdown. The upside is that Albert Haynesworth has been added to the DL. Haynesworth should help the team move up to around 40 sacks.

If you draft defensive tackles, Haynesworth is the position's Adrian Peterson. As a defensive lineman, he's a pretty solid second starter. DE Andre Carter should be the main beneficiary.

Starters at linebacker are London Fletcher (solid tackle guy), Rocky McIntosh (weakside) and Brian Orakpo (strongside). Orakpo, the first-round pick, is intriguing because he's likely to play linebacker on running downs and defensive end on passing downs. He could be a good play.

Laron Landry is the defensive back of note. Whoever wins the strong safety job (Chris Horton or Reed Doughty) could help you as well. Fred Smoot, Carlos Rogers, and DeAngelo Hall will be the main cornerbacks.

It's possible that the Redskins surprise and contend for a playoff spot. Other than Clinton Portis, do not expect a lot of fantasy fireworks out of this team.

McNair

I received two phone messages around 4:30 yesterday afternoon, both telling me the same thing. Both telling me something I refused to hear.

We adore our football heroes, but we don't think about them much when they retire. Once in a while we'll find a YouTube clip or an old game on the NFL Network, but mostly it's out of sight, out of mind.

It's a tragedy for his family, and not only due the the circumstances of his death which I will not go into here. McNair was 36. He had a lot of living left.

For Titan and Oiler fans, Steve McNair will not soon be forgotten. I'm not ready to write about it yet. Go to Music City Miracles for more details.

Fantasy Team Preview: Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles were one of the most mystifying teams in the NFL last year. After an embarrassing tie at Cincinnati, the team benched ten-year starting QB Donovan McNabb in a loss to the Ravens. Two months later, the team was one defensive stop from going to the Super Bowl.

We care little about "teams" in fantasy football. There's a lot to like about this team, but buyer beware. Between last year's finish and a contract "readjustment" (not extension), McNabb will be the starter through 2010. When he plays at least 14 games, McNabb is a top-12 quarterback. All the team did in the draft was add new weapons. Right now he's the 8th rated QB by ADP. You're not getting a bargain on this well worn QB model.

Brian Westbrook isn't going to play 16 games. He's been a top 10 RB four out of the last five years. He catches a lot of passes. As I know from mistakenly keeping Willis McGahee last year, guys coming off surgery are question marks. Ankle surgery will keep Westbrook out of training camp until close to the start of the regular season. He's going to be a tough sell at RB11. Best case scenario is to let someone else take him and make a deal early in the season. LeSean McCoy is the rookie running back most likely to pick up the slack while Westbrook is out. He has the same body type as Westbrook but is very raw (left college after redshirt sophomore year).

The Eagles throw more often than most teams. The problem is, the ball tends to get spread around. DeSean Jackson led the team with 62 receptions. He was also the team's punt returner. If his punt return job is handed over to rookie Jeremy Maclin, he could be a WR2 for fantasy. Jackson is most remembered for dropping the ball short of the goal line, costing his owners six points.

Maclin's very good, as I can attest from being a Missouri fan. He played in a spread offense, so it's doubtful that he will become a starter as a rookie. He's a good dynasty pickup, especially if you get return yards. He should return kickoffs, punts, or perhaps both.

Kevin Curtis is another receiver worth keeping an eye on. He caught 77 passes in 2007, so he might be a waiver wire pickup. Reggie Brown never developed, Jason Avant is a potential slot guy, and Hank Baskett will be seen on reality TV more than the field this year.

L.J. Smith is gone. He will now tease fans of the Baltimore Ravens. Brent Celek is the main target this year. He was a popular waiver wire pickup after a 131-yard game against Seattle in Week 9. For the rest of the year, he didn't amass 131 yards in receiving. He's a TE2 at best. Draft pick Cornelius Ingram is a project and probably won't see much of the field.

David Akers has been around for a while. He kicks the ball real good.

Eagles' team D big numbers: 48 sacks, 16 interceptions, 15 fumbles recovered, five defensive touchdowns and two kick-return scores. They will be a top team D again this year.

The Eagles rotate players more than most on the defensive line, and they always seem to be adding one or two starters on defense. Trent Cole is the DE to target. Juqua Parker is a fill-in at best and Victor Abiamiri is the second-year player with upside.

Stewart Bradley took over at MLB last year and led the team in tackles. He's steady but doesn't make a lot of big plays. The new starter at weakside linebacker is Akeem Jordan. He'll be a good late-round pick. Chris Gocong starts at strong side linebacker and has played a little defensive end.

Quintin Mikell is the starting strong safety and will be a top ten defensive back. Quintin Demps or Sean Jones will be the free safety. Demps was the team's main kickoff returner last year with one touchdown. If he starts, he may lose the role.

There are a lot of rookies and young players who may not quite be ready this year for the Eagles. It's a good offense without a lot of fantasy star power.

Fantasy Team Preview: Dallas Cowboys

I learned one thing from my Giants' team preview: There's no way I can be that in depth for all 32 teams. The Cowboys preview will be more streamlined for two reasons. One, I've already blogged at length about Marion Barber and Tony Romo. Two, I don't have the time to do what I did on Wednesday.

The Cowboys were the most disappointing team in the NFL last year. They seemed on paper to be better than the 2007 version that went 13-3, tied for the best record in team history. An injury to Romo along with a general malaise resulted in a 44-6 final week shellacking by the Eagles. There were no playoffs, although there were a lot of players going to the Pro Bowl.

Here are some things I know about 2009. If the Cowboys don't win in the playoffs, not just make it, Wade Phillips is gone. Actually there are few scenarios I envision that result in Phillips remaining the head coach. A more balanced run-pass ratio is likely. One thing the Cowboys did right last year was draft a couple of running backs.

Let's start with Romo. As I wrote before, his numbers were a bit off last year, but he was injured and still finished #9 at QB. He should finish higher this year, even without T.O. and with more hand offs. Jon Kitna is the backup. He's no Brad Johnson, and that's a good thing.

Enter Marion Barber. I have much love for the Barbarian. The downside is that if you get him in your draft, you have to pick up Tashard Choice and maybe even Felix Jones. Jones is in the mold of a Reggie Bush. Get him out in space and he can make the highlight film. Choice finished strong when Barber and Jones missed time.

T.O. is gone. Get over it, people. Roy Williams was signed, and overpaid, to take his number one wideout slot. He will occupy it physically. In five NFL seasons, Williams has been ranked lower than a WR2 all but one year. He's going to go higher than you should be willing to pay. The rest of the situation is fluid. Miles Austin is the guy to target. He has 18 career receptions but is the man to beat for the WR2 role. In Dallas, he may end up being the fourth target. Patrick Crayton is the other warm body of note.

Jason Witten is the new WR1 at TE. You will have to draft him very early to get him. Martellus Bennett is the talented backup. You don't draft backup TEs.

Even though the Cowboys drafted a kicker, Nick Folk should still be the man.

The Cowboy D had 58 sacks, 8 interceptions and 29 fumbles recovered. If Jones is returning kicks, he could take two back. Consider that for team D leagues.

In a 3-4 defense, you generally shy away from defensive linemen. Jay Ratliff had 7.5 sacks at nose tackle. Impressive. DeMarcus Ware had 20. That's more impressive. Bradie James is the inside linebacker to target, although new addition Keith Brooking should get good tackle numbers. In the secondary, Terance Newman is the name to avoid, while second-year pro Mike Jenkins could put up some numbers. Ken Hamlin was kind of disappointing last year. Gerald Sensabaugh is the strong safety and could be a useful fill-in.

That's all the time I have for today.

Fantasy Team Preview: New York Giants

I’m going to start a new method of preparing for the 2009 fantasy season. I will look at each team individually before making any kind of ranking. It makes sense to see how the team as a whole looks before going to individual projections or rankings.

Today will be the New York Giants. They, like the Titans, earned home-field advantage and lost in the divisional round of the playoffs. Unlike the Titans, they won a championship the year before. There are some major changes for G-Men.

The loss of Derrick Ward represents 41% of the team’s rushing yardage and 14% of the team’s receptions. Ward had 41 receptions and the rest of the team’s running backs/fullbacks totaled 19 catches. That’s an opportunity. No NFL team is as prepared to fill the gap. Ahmad Bradshaw will get the first crack and is likely to get 200 touches. In case anything happens to Brandon Jacobs, he of 15 touchdowns last year, Danny Ware will be next in line. Ware is a third-year pro who was an undrafted free agent out of Georgia. This year’s fourth-round pick, Andre Brown, will fill out the roster and could be a game-day inactive until he learns the ropes.

Jacobs should be the man. He set a career high with 219 carries last season. In 2007 the Giants gave him more than 20 touches seven times. He only played in 11 games. In 2008 he exceeded the 20-touch mark four times and missed a mere three games, and one of those was a Week 17 holdout when the team had clinched the number one spot in the playoffs. I expect him to stay in the 18-20 carry range. Jacobs may be a bigger part of the passing game. He caught 23 balls in 2007 and only 6 in 2008.

Other than a 17-carry performance in Week 16 of the 2007 season, we haven’t seen enough of Bradshaw to know how he’ll perform with double-digit touches. Derrick Ward had ten or more carries in ten of the final 12 2008 games. Bradshaw is close to a must-handcuff for Jacobs owners. Ware will be a waiver-wire guy if either Bradshaw or Jacobs gets hurt. Ware has ideal RB size (6’1, 225 pounds) while Bradshaw’s more of a change-of-pace guy.

Andre Brown could be this year’s Chris Henry. Brown was a workout warrior who put up OK but not spectacular college stats. Some experts think he will be a major player in the backfield while others think that 2009 will be a quasi-redshirt year. Considering that Jacobs misses games every year and that the rest of the backs are talented but unproven, you should keep an eye on Brown.

One thing we’re sure about is Eli Manning. He’s going to start 16 games, as he has for the past four seasons. It’s hard to beat the consistency of his 24, 24, 23, and 21 touchdown passes in those four years. He cut his interceptions in half last year, which is good because he led the league in that category in his Super Bowl MVP season. He’s not a fantasy stud like his brother. His rank of 10, 13, and 13 over the past three years lets you know that he’s a great backup and an OK starter.

A reason not to be bullish about Manning having an outlier 30-touchdown season in 2009 is his receiving corps. With the departure of Ward, Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer, Manning loses 124 of his 289 completions. Who’s going to step up?

Domenik Hixon took over at flanker when Burress, um, put himself out of the running. He’s come a long way in a year, from a part-time special teams guy to a starter. He caught 30 passes in the last seven games. The one touchdown in that stretch doesn’t make you feel too warm and fuzzy inside. If anyone’s taking the WR1 role on the team, it’s Hixon.

Steve Smith led the Giants in receptions last year. While he’s a rare wideout who went to USC and has produced in the pros, do not mistake him for his namesake in Carolina. Mr. Smith increased his catch production from 8 to 57. I’m guessing that was the best percentage growth in the league. He won’t make that kind of leap again, and let me tell you why.

Hakeem Nicks might be the most productive rookie receiver in the NFL. His opportunity is higher than guys like Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin, and Darrius Heyward-Bey . He also can catch the ball like this. One reason why Plaxico Burress was so good with the Giants was that he had the size to catch the balls that Eli threw somewhat off target. Nicks can do that. I think he’ll be the starter by the end of the year.

Other contenders include Mario Manningham (needs to step up in his second year), Ramses Barden (big body but played at lower level in college), Sinorice Moss (pretty much a bust), David Tyree (as good as released), Derek Hagan, Taye Biddle, and Dirk Diggler, Shaun Bodiford. One of the last four players is made up.

Kevin Boss finished as the #13 tight end in his first year as a starter. Can the Giants draft or what? Boss’s 33 catches aren’t impressive but the six touchdowns means that Eli looks for him in the red zone. He’s a good backup TE. Travis Beckum is the hot-shot draft pick who’s in the Dallas Clark mold. As a rookie, he probably won’t help in fantasy terms.

Lawrence Tynes is a kicker. He’s a shoo-in to not lead the team in touchdowns. He’s from Scotland if you like the international flavor.
If you play with team defenses, my apologies. They will be one of the top defenses taken and therefore poor value. Bradshaw was the top kick returner and Hixon was the top punt returner. The team finished with 17 interceptions, 18 fumbles, 42 sacks, and two defensive touchdowns.

On paper, the defense should be super. Osi Umenyiora missed the entire season and is back. He will be the Tom Brady of defensive ends, draft-position wise. Justin Tuck (12 sacks, 52 tackles) is a top-five defensive end. Mathias Kiwanuka (8 sacks, 35 tackles) will rotate in a lot. The team added Chris Canty, who can play end and tackle, along with Rocky Bernard, a tackle. Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo left to possibly ruin his career as the St. Louis Rams’ head coach. The new guy is Bill Sheridan, who was already with the staff.

Antonio Pierce is the linebacker to own. He has been at or near 100 tackles for five straight years. He’ll get a sack or two a year as well. Michael Boley moves over from the Falcons and is the weakside linebacker. Danny Clark is the other starter.

Last year’s final first-round draft pick, Kenny Phillips, will start at free safety and is the IDP play. Michael Johnson is the probable starter at strong safety. He could use a more memorable name.

The Giant run game is something to keep an eye on. If your draft is close to the season, you’ll get a better handle on how the pecking order will turn out. Brandon Jacobs will be a top five running back if he can avoid the injuries that have slowed him down in his first two seasons as a starter. Eli is Eli. If this team doesn’t make the playoffs, I will be very surprised.