NFC playoff picture = total chaos

The NFC playoff situation is so awesomely bad that I can't express myself. Until the last couple of years, nearly every year in the NFC the top seeds advanced. It was a given. Then, two years ago, the Cowboys lost to the Giants. Last year the Giants lost to the Eagles and the Cardinals beat the Panthers. This year, we're looking at the most open playoff scenario ever.

In the last two weeks, the top two seeds in the NFC are 0-4. For most of the year we talked about a Vikings/Saints NFC Championship game as if it were preordained. It's not. In fact, it would be conceivable to see both lose in the first round at this rate. But the NFL playoffs are now about randomness, so these teams probably will get it together and win that game.

Last night's loss was a stomach punch to the Vikings. In the first half their offense seemed to be led by Jeff Fisher in Super Bowl 34. In short, they did nothing and the Bears took a 16-0 lead.

I'm not sure what's happened in the past month, but after being told that there was no parity, bad teams are jumping up and beating good teams a lot. The Bucs beat the Saints. The Raiders beat the Eagles, Steelers, and Broncos. The Chiefs beat the Steelers. How did the Titans lose to the Steelers again?

In the second half, the offense returned but the kick coverage team was hilariously bad. The Vikings scored a TD and had the extra point blocked (harbinger of sorrow there). Daniael Manning returned the kick to the Viking 33 and the Bears scored easily. The Vikings struck back. Jay Cutler threw a dumb interception. The Vikings scored again. And again. The Bears got another great kickoff return and Cutler threw another touchdown pass. Jon Gruden praised the goal posts. Best he's ever seen.

We've had more last-minute drama this year than any other year I can think of. Once again, as if mandated by fate, the Vikings faced fourth and goal from the six. On the previous play Favre threw it to Harvin in the corner. I thought he should have thrown the same route to Sidney Rice, the 6'5 jump-ball specialist. So he did. Tie game.

The Bears got the ball first in OT and, against protocol, did not score. Even though the Bear D was missing Charles Tillman (why again is he nicknamed "Peanut"?), the Vikings couldn't move. The Bears got the ball back. Cutler tried to throw an interception but the Vikings were more sporting. It was the longest five minutes of overtime ever. Favre hit Peterson on a screen. Peterson was past the 30. Hunter Hillenmeyer reached from behind Peterson and punched the ball out. See why he's not the number one fantasy pick, people?

I liked the last play. This is what teams should do in overtime more often. If Jeff Fisher tried this in a dream, he's wake up all sweaty like it was a nightmare. "Was my kicker injured?" he'd yell. Cutler hit Devin Aromashodu, who needs no nickname, on a go. There was nothing tricky to it. It was such a simple call that Antoine Winfield, an All-Pro corner, just let him go.

A loss not only took the Vikings out of the running for home-field advantage; they now are not in control for a home playoff game. Can the Vikings win in Philadelphia? Heck, can they beat the Packers in a first-round rematch?

There is such a thing as peaking too soon. The Saints peaked in their win over the Patriots. The Vikings had it all clicking in a win over the Bengals two weeks ago. The Colts intentionally murdered their mojo and let the Jets beat them. The playoffs are going to be fun this year.

Denouement

It was always going to end like this. Fans were blinded by recent success, relative as it was, into thinking that not only was a Wild Card trip a possibility, but a playoff run. We knew. We knew that there wasn’t going to be a happy ending to the 2009 season.

Last night’s game was hard to watch, not because the Titans “blew” their opportunity to advance the season, not because they were exposed on national TV, but because that’s who they have been all season. Last year’s team was Jeff Fisher’s dream. The defense was so good that the offense only had to be middle of the pack. The team was clutch, always scoring or preventing a score when needed. There was a little good fortune sprinkled in there. This year’s Steelers team is similar in that every bounce went their way last year, and this year just a couple of cracks led to a nearly complete breakdown.

We knew when the D line couldn’t get any rush on the Cowboys in the preseason game. We knew when that same D line couldn’t get any rush on the Steelers in the second half of the opener. We knew when receivers started dropping too many passes. They couldn’t catch anything when Kerry Collins started. When Vince Young got in the game, suddenly nothing was dropped. Did we honestly expect that the receivers learned how to catch consistently in the middle of a season?

It was a sloppy game, and turned into a worst-case nightmare. We knew that if the offense turned the ball over, the defense couldn’t create turnovers, make third-down stops, get pressure or not have stupid penalties, and Fisher made his trademark “bawk bawk” punt in a close game, the dreams of January football were gone.
Vince Young had his worst game of the year. On his first interception, Alge Crumpler was wide open when he pulled his arm back. As his arm went forward, a linebacker moved in front. I don’t know if he could have pulled that one back. He did the right thing on his fumble, sliding as he got near the first-down marker. It’s rare that a QB gets the ball stripped a split second before sliding. Bad luck there. On the last interception the team was losing big-time anyway. The ball was behind the receiver, and Vince does that. No one on the team seemed capable of making a catch for the rest of the game.

The Titans had a shot to keep it close, but I don’t know if they could have defeated the Chargers. It was a little like the Colts game. If the Titans played their best and the opposition made a few mistakes, it was possible. But the Titans didn’t play their best. It was the worst performance since the Patriot game, and darn it all of one of the best teams in the league isn’t going to pick you apart when you’re an 8-8 team and don’t play up to par.

I know one thing. Chris Johnson might be the 2,000-yard rusher on the worst team ever. He ran for 141 yards even though he was the team’s only consistent weapon. He seems to disappear at the line of scrimmage and shoot out. Antonio Cromartie looked scared on Johnson’s first run. He got turned around like a JV cornerback covering a starting college wideout. The Chargers didn’t let Johnson get into the end zone when he scored the garbage-time TD. It did look a little like they were admiring his work.

It’s a dream season for Johnson and a nightmare for everyone else. You can’t go 13-3, lose your best defensive player, replace him with a few replacement-level guys and think that it will happen again. I don’t think the Titans had a shot at re-signing Haynesworth. Had Jason Jones been healthy all year, the defensive line would have been better but not good enough. The secondary was a little overrated last year and desperately needs depth. Losing Thornton was one thing, but when Bulluck was out, the defense lost its leader.

My father-in-law insisted that Jeff Fisher needs to go. He’s been with the team so long that it’s possible a new leader is needed. I’m not ready to let go just yet. All the teams that hired the hot, young coach haven’t done so well. Unlike the Colts, who seamlessly moved on from the Tony Dungy era, the Titans don’t have a replacement on staff.

I didn’t like punting on fourth and two when the team had the ball, a little momentum, and trailed by 11. Notice how many defenses that once were feared have turned to jelly this year? Mike Tomlin went for an onside kick because his number one defense from last year couldn’t stop the Packers. Bill Belichick went for fourth and two from his own 30 because his defense, once the cornerstone of a dynasty, couldn’t stop the Colts. The Titans stopped the Chargers on the opening possession and that was all they had. Chris Johnson could get those two yards. Vince Young could get those two yards. There’s no way that Nate Washington would get those two yards. I’d take those odds.

Even though the game was over, I didn’t like Fisher sitting on his time outs with the Chargers holding the ball in the final two minutes. I get that the defense couldn’t stop Mike Tolbert, a backup fullback, from running when the team was not going to pass. I would have liked to see a little fight.

The season ended a lot like 2006, when a team on the verge of a miraculous playoff run ran into a wall of reality. The Chargers, like the Patriots team that crushed the Titans on that cold December afternoon, are bound for the AFC Championship game, at least.

I’ll finish with Vince. He better work a lot harder in this offseason than he did in the 2006-2007 offseason. No video game covers. Work with Heimerdinger. Let’s see what this offense is capable with Chris Johnson ready to become a star, Kenny Britt prepared to make a second-year leap, and Jared Cook not getting injured every other week. The line is great, even if Mawae is gone. Could Nate Washington learn not to drop every other pass? That would be nice.

I enjoyed most of the second half of this year. I don’t know if the championship window is closed. Teams that traditionally didn’t win a Super Bowl, the Wild Card road warriors, the sieve-like rush D of the 2006 Colts, and the sieve-like offensive line of the 2008 Steelers means that anyone can win if they get hot at the right time. There was a lot of promise that led to despair, hope, and finally denouement.

Titan review

My fantasy season is over. Arian Foster could take the blame, but it’s all on the coach. I didn’t see Jonathan Stewart’s 25-point game coming, and I certainly saw Matt Forte’s six-point effort coming.

I have Fred Davis and I need 16 more points to win. I don’t see it coming. The Giants could stop playing defense. Where was this Giants D last week?

In my z34 game, I led for a couple of hours but my relative lack of talent “won” out. My opponent scored nearly 200 points, and 200 points is the gold standard. Our German owner is enjoying his first year in the league, probably because he took over a three-time champ and is in the title game again.

Let’s talk Titans. Fans are upset that Fisher and Heimerdinger got conservative after a 24-6 lead. I think we should be happy that this team was capable of getting an 18-point lead over a playoff-caliber team. The Dolphins have zero explosion on offense but their running game is solid and Chad Henne looks like a keeper at QB.

I know that Chris Johnson is on a roll that’s almost once in a generation, but his workload might be an issue. During a carry late in the game, the Dolphins’ D line actually picked Johnson up and tried to strip the ball. It reminded me a little of the Ravens’ wishbone treatment of Johnson in the playoff game. He’s getting 30 touches a game and while you can’t argue with the results, it’s a lot for one guy, any running back honestly, to take.

Vince Young made some nice passes. All three touchdowns were in tight coverage. Justin Gage caught the ball well in his two opportunities. Nate Washington only dropped one pass.

The defense was pretty much hopeless in the fourth quarter. After Keith Bulluck was lost to a borderline tragic ACL injury, there was no stopping the Dolphins. Michael Griffin handed a long reception to Brian Hartline and made up for it by picking Henne off.

If there was any doubt that the Rob Bironas of two years ago is back, it was erased in overtime. Griffin took a knee on his pick, and Greg Camarillo hit him late, putting the Titans in automatic field goal range. The Titans all but took a knee three times. I was nervous. I had no reason to. Bironas made the 48-yarder like it was an extra point. Clutch.

Yahoo came up with a playoff scenario page that’s freaking awesome. The Titans had nearly everything come up their way, with most playoff contenders losing. The Steelers, Texans, and Ravens did not play along.

The Arian Foster Show

Here's why they play the games. In the preseason, Matt Forte was an obviously better fantasy option than Chris Johnson. In some leagues he went as high as number one overall. Thirteen games later, Chris Johnson has 941 more rushing yards than Forte. I'm starting Arian Foster, a running back who only recently moved up from the practice squad for the Texans, over Forte. It's pretty much a no brainer. Forte will likely have his typical 48-yard effort on 15 carries while another unheralded rookie free agent running back Khalil Bell will probably average more per carry and get half a dozen touches. Forte faces the Ravens, which means the Bears probably will be losing big time early and the running game will be off the table. While Foster is in a three-man competition for touches, the Texans play the Rams. It's highly likely that the Texans will lead early and Foster could get 15 touches in the second half alone.

Tonight I root for the Colts. It's not often that I cheer for the masters of boring but effective. My opponent in my all-important local keeper league semifinal matchup has Manning and Addai. After tonight I should know if I need Foster to have a Ron Dayne-esque performance. In week 15 of the 2006 season, Dayne had 32 carries for 153 yards and two touchdowns. If that happens, it will be the fantasy equivalent of moving into the first house or getting married. You think I jest.

When the dream dies

So this is what happens when a dynasty dies. My zealots 17 fantasy team had that new dynasty smell when the team's record was 6-0 and I had the highest score by far in the league. I slumped, finishing 9-4 and losing the first-round bye. My team was dispatched in the first round of the playoffs.

What happened? Hubris, I suppose. I traded Ricky Williams away in the offseason, all but giving him away for a third round rookie pick. I did not foresee a Ronnie Brown injury, obviously a blind spot on my part. Michael Turner got hurt and Marion Barber stopped scoring points. Jamaal Charles, who I considered trading, ended the year as my top scoring RB, with Darren Sproles close behind. LenDale White was the 15th highest scoring RB last year. This year, he's barely outscoring Garrett Wolfe. Percy Harvin, my stud rookie WR, got a headache and couldn't play. Reggie Wayne tailed off in a major way (four straight weeks without double digit points).
Here's what happens in the fantasy playoffs. You flip a coin and hope for the best. I won my first-round playoff game in my local keeper league. I scored the most points in the league. My opponent, the one seed, scored the second most. I had Andre Johnson and Brandon Marshall. His RB4 was Jamaal Charles. Cedric Benson, my RB1, scored less than half what Charles scored. I needed Johnson and Marshall to practically set league records for me to advance. I picked up the Texans D and lucked out with a TD.

In fact, the only team I have that did not advance in the playoffs was my dominant dynasty league team that had won two straight championships. I survived Randy Moss's sleepwalk of a performance to score the second most points in the ongoing Masters total points playoff challenge. I won in zealots 34 when Michael Crabtree outscored Larry Fitzgerald. I bet last week was the only week all year that this was the case. It takes luck and timing and it feels like more when you do it.

The best part of advancing in the fantasy playoffs is knowing that the football season is meaningful for another week. Titan fans understand that every week at this point is a gift.

The dream dies

It wasn’t supposed to end like this. The Titans were halfway to an incredible season turnaround, to start 0-6 and potentially finish 10-6. Chris Johnson was running like no one in NFL history. Vince Young became the QB we all thought he could be in 2006. Receivers were making plays. The defense started looking like the squad that was a step behind last year’s team, but good enough to win.

It didn’t end because the team played so much worse than the past five weeks. It ended because of a lot of the things that happened in the past five weeks.

You can’t catch everything: for the first three weeks of the Vince Young Experiment, receivers didn’t drop a pass. It was an uncanny reversal. But it couldn’t last. Nate Washington can get open but he can’t be trusted to bring in the big catch. In the first quarter, with the score 7-0 Colts, he had a chance to bring in a long touchdown. He dropped the pass.

When you get in the red zone against a good team, you need to finish: The Titans had more than 400 yards of total offense in the first 58 minutes of last week’s game. They only scored 13 points, and seven of them were on one play. The offense stalled inside the 20 too many times. Against the Colts it happened again. Two trips inside the 20 in the third quarter resulted in no points. That included a first and goal at the one. You have to make it happen.

And finally, the defense: The Titans all but shut out Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie and Joseph Addai filled in the gaps. One of the reasons why the steady but boring Colts have managed to be so effective this year is that Garcon and Collie have stepped up. The Colts’ offensive skill players, until this year, have been dominated by first-round picks.

The Titans weren’t going to win ten in a row, because you can’t play at your peak for ten consecutive weeks. You’re going to have to win with less than your best, as they did last week. Against an elite team like the Colts, less than the best wasn’t good enough. An 8-8 finish would be miraculous considering the 0-6 start. Remember, we don’t know anything until Vince Young gets another shot at starting 16 games. The secondary and defensive lines need more depth. Bringing in another veteran receiver who can catch but isn’t completely finished (hi, Torry Holt) would be nice. Sorry to say it, Titan fans, but the hot streak is over and it might be time to cash in the chips.

Quick Fantasy Football Playoff Rant

Is there anything I do that is more fun to do but less rewarding than setting up fantasy playoff systems? I enjoy looking over the rules for tiebreakers, writing information on each team and putting the final portion of the season in motion. I’m not getting any feedback.

Let’s face it. Fantasy sports have become less fun. The smack talk has almost evaporated. People don’t have as much time to play. I’ve had half a dozen unsubmitted rosters in my dynasty league alone. There’s so much information out there that there’s no excuse to start injured players and such. But people still do it. Just not when they’re playing me.