iPod, we have a problem

In honor of my 200th blog, I'll not talk about sports. Today at work I managed to blow up my iPod. I think I would have been less traumatized by a blown tire in the middle of the interstate. I'm not a big gadget guy, but that little music machine is a critical part of my day. I am known at my company (not necessarily a good thing) as the guy with earbuds on all the time. A couple of weeks ago I tried to go an hour without the pod and found it to be torture. I had to listen to my co-workers talk, and the other random office noise.

I plugged in the iPod this morning, and when I pressed the eject button on the itunes screen, there was an error message. At the end of a download, you get that little "synching iPod" message. The iPod couldn't sync. I'm not sure exactly what this process is, but apparently it's critical. When I unplugged the machine, there were no songs, no podcasts, no nothing. Because I had gotten overobsessed with my Top 25 played list, I dumped everything off a couple of weeks ago and started from scratch. I was going to do it again.

The iPod and work have had an uneasy relationship. I found myself listening to podcasts (Adam Carolla most of the time) while doing less brain-intensive work. It doesn't matter how brain-unintensive manipulating a spreadsheet is, it's a less efficient process while chuckling at Bald Brian's Isaac Hayes drops. Over time, I realized that the podcasts were best listened to on the way to and back from work. I actually have too short of a commute for that. Now that fantasy and regular football podcasts are in full bloom, I'm in serious trouble.

I reloaded itunes onto the desktop at work. Sure, I was multitasking. I don't know why my boss let me have two computers, since all I use the desktop for is clocking out while the laptop takes five minutes to shut down. Sadly the reboot did nothing for my synching issue. I would have to restore the iPod. That would be an issue since I had a few tracks that were not saved elsewhere. I downloaded some Explosions in the Sky when I heard the raves from Friday Night Light fans. I still don't get it.

The worst part was trying to turn up the TVs in our office workout room since I had no music for my workout. I've been on a workout kick since April of 2002. I should remember the exact day since this was a critical turnaround point in my life just a few months from a near-death experience. I went to my friend Steve's small workout center in his apartment complex. There was no music. There was no iPod. I don't know how I did it.

Even after I put 869 tracks back on my restored machine tonight, I knew that my work was not complete. I had three workout mixes on there, not to mention the Blue Rodeo mix, the AUFL mix (intro music is critical for any well-run in-person draft), and other mixes now lost to history. I'm glad that I don't have an iPhone.

Addiction to addiction

In a week, NFL training camps will begin and hopefully the national nightmare of the Bret Favre situation will be resolved. The NFL Network will overhype the overwhelming slate of mostly meaningless preseason games and fantasy drafts will begin.

I can’t minimize the excitement. But am I addicted to football and fantasy football?

Society is quick to say that a person is an addict. If a celebrity goes into rehab, they are an addict. While this may be technically true, it puts the person off the hook for the behavior. Addicts can’t control their addiction, just like a grey tabby can’t will himself to becoming an orange tabby.

The solutions to addiction are a hope for a quick fix. If you’re on drugs or alcohol, you have rehab or a twelve-step program. Sometimes you get drugs to help cope with addiction. My cure for football addiction is the offseason. But there really is no offseason. NFL beat writers used to cover football and another sport during the offseason. Those days are over. If you want to be a true football fan, and especially a fantasy football fan, you can’t just drop it in February and hope to catch up six months later.

What’s the difference between an addiction and a hobby? Six years ago when we started the AUFL, most owners didn’t do much more draft prep than reading a magazine. Now everyone’s online and making constant efforts. If a player gets injured or is suspended for ramming his girlfriend with an SUV, it used to take a week for all of the owners to find out. Now everyone’s aware within the hour. With most owners having equal information, you have two choices. You can either work harder to gain an edge or hope to “get lucky” on draft day by making a few risky choices.

If I am addicted to football, and especially fantasy football, there’s enough evidence for a conviction. I have a friend who’s considering getting cable or a satellite provider. Naturally I’m trying to talk him into getting Direct TV so he can get the NFL Sunday Ticket. There are selfish reasons for this, but at the same time he’s a fan and I did agree to pay for half of the Sunday Ticket cost. Hey, I’m reading the Seven Habits of Highly Successful People, this is my win/win scenario. Considering that I spent half of my Sundays either in a sports bar (depressing doesn’t begin to describe that scene) or at home, watching the crappy national game while keeping track of the Titans on the computer, this would be a major upgrade.

As for fantasy football, I’m in five leagues and may add one more. That’s a serious time consideration when I’m about to go back to school, I may lose my job at any moment, and of course, I’m married. While it’s somewhat true that at a certain point, adding another league doesn’t really make much of a difference, it’s still time that I could be doing something more productive.

While I’ve struggled with my fantasy football demons over the past couple of years, I still enjoy it. Most of my closest friends are in fantasy leagues. It’s how we communicate. There are other ways that we could keep in touch for sure. Without making fun of Chuck’s selection of Michael Pittman in the first round of our draft five years ago, it wouldn’t be the same.

Once we get beyond the obvious local league with owners I know and see regularly, it gets a little shakier. In the zealots league that I commish, I have not met any of the owners in person other than the people who are in the AUFL. They live all over the country. In my other zealots league, I know some of the owners by their handle like Mudgator, Rock, Taz, and Rodhands rather than their real names. That’s when we get more impersonal. I’m in a Masters league, and I bet that out of the 11 other owners I know maybe two. A one-year league doesn’t always result in close friendships and becoming a Godparent, for example.

Then we have the college fantasy league, which I found out drafts two weeks from tomorrow. I’m getting my lists set up pretty well for the NFL-based leagues. Researching for college players is another game altogether. There are far fewer resources available. All I can do is gather a list of who is already on a roster (30 players per squad) and figure out where the opportunities are. Like a baseball fantasy league, more than half of the action in college fantasy is on the waiver wire. Some third-string fullback will end up running for 1500 yards and at least a dozen wideouts who caught two passes last year will catch 80 this year. I’m not too worried about that.

If I have to be labeled as an addict, so be it. I know what I am. I can have a conversation on other topics if necessary.

Green Bay Nightmare

So Brett Favre wants to come back. It's official. I made light of the situation a week ago because I thought it was a media invention. Shortly after Favre's retirement announcement, the Packers asked if he wanted to come back for 2008. This was in March. Favre said no. The Packers decided to move on without him. Four months later, Favre changes his mind. This puts a lot of pressure on the Packers in too many ways. They've already scheduled his retirement ceremony. If he's on the active roster, he counts $12 million against the cap. No one is going to give the Packers equal trade value, and there's no value on your franchise icon putting on another jersey this fall. The announcement that the Packers would accept Favre as a backup didn't go over too well.

The Titans went through a much less traumatic version of this scenario two years ago when the effectively barred Steve McNair from the team facility. Unlike the Packers, the Titans were in salary cap hell and had to get rid of McNair's eight-figure cap number. McNair was an icon, and while his number might be retired by the Titans, he's not going to be an NFL Hall of Famer. It was a bad time for the franchise. I wish the Packers well, until they play the Titans this fall.

I secured some tickets for the coveted Titans/Steelers game in December. It's possible that two dozen members of the Law clan will descend to Nashville. I can't even imagine the Wii games that will ensue.

The only drama left prior to training camp is whether the Titans can get their rookies signed and Albert Haynesworth. The Titans have to work out a long-term deal by Tuesday or sign Haynesworth to the franchise tag. I have a feeling that the Titans will promise not to give Haynesworth the franchise tag next year and a deal will be worked out by the end of 2008.

I was a little off base regarding the Zealots Masters league. Our roster limit will be 32 players, which isn't much for an IDP league. You can't hoard a dozen RBs and WRs like in a traditional zealots league. In fact, if I choose to have, say, six RBs and WRs, I'll have to suffer with almost no bench in other positions. The draft starts in two weeks at the most and I have done very little preparation. Out of the 48 teams in this league, I'm hoping to finish out of the bottom ten.

Never fear

The White Sox made another improbable rally to defeat the Royals last night. Would you believe two runs scoring on a sacrifice fly? That's like something that happens in kickball.

The downside to keeper day in the AUFL is that our esteemed Commish has not announced the keepers yet. I guess we'll have to wait another day. One month from today at this time I'll be recovering from hangover number one at the post-draft party.

It's a slow news day. The Titans decided to wear their light blue jerseys as primary starting this year. Frankly, I prefer the "luv ya blue" Oiler look instead. At least in Madden you can try out that look.

Rookie running backs

When I was a youngster, I was a lot more brazen. I once approached a lifeguard at my local pool. I was maybe six years old. When I looked up, I told her "I don't usually date older women, but with you I'm willing to make an exception."

Rookie running backs are the female lifeguard. They tempt you with Adrian Peterson-esque potential but generally turn into Cedric Benson. It's very difficult to rank rookies. At the same time, it's a great opportunity for upside.

I have a high third-round pick in this year's AUFL draft. That pick most likely will become my third running back. My RB3 from last year's draft was Jerious Norwood. Yeah, I reached. Warrick Dunn recently had surgery and I thought that the youngster could carry the load. I ignored the reports that insisted that Norwood was Maurice Jones-Drew lite.

Darren McFadden will go in the first round. Matt Forte may go that early, or in the second round. The candidates are Jonathan Stewart, Kevin Smith, and maybe Forte. Who should be my pick? Forte is the guy most likely to start but the Bears have a poor outlook at WR, QB, and OL. Forte had 361 carries for Tulane last year. That's a high workload for 16 NFL games. Tulane didn't have much else, so teams keyed on Forte. He averaged 5.9 yards a carry. Forte had five 200-yard games, including a ridiculous 342 yards on 38 carries against SMU. Forte had seven 30-carry games and two 40-carry games. It's hard to call him anything but a workhorse. You just hope that he's not the next Ryan Moats.

When Jonathan Stewart signed with Oregon, he was the top high school RB. He split carries until his junior year, when he ran for 1722 yards (6.2 yards per carry). The problem with Stewart is he was a bit injury-prone in college, including surgery on his big toe prior to the draft. Turf toe can be problematic. Also, the Panthers already have a first-round running back in DeAngelo Williams. Williams averaged five yards a carry last year as a backup. The Panthers have a mediocre offensive line at best. This looks like a RBBC where Stewart may or may not break out in the second half of the year.

Kevin Smith nearly broke Barry Sanders' all-time college single-season rushing record. Let's make one thing clear. Sanders set his record in 12 games. Smith had 14. He carried the ball an insane 450 times last year. Smith failed to run for 100 yards once last season. The knock on Smith is that he tends to go down on first contact. The other knock is Detroit's offensive line. Tatum Bell, who in 2004 was more hyped than any of these rookies, is the nominal starter in Detroit. They will run more this year. Bell has averaged 4.8 yards per carry for all of his bust credentials. Smith may break out, but other than a few scattered long runs, he isn't going to be a consistent performer.

Yeah, I'm not too excited by this bunch. Forte looks like the obvious choice. If guys like Rudi Johnson and LenDale White are available, I may take the safe pick. I could use one. Johnson scored exactly 12 touchdowns three years in a row before last year's injury-fueled disaster. I'm not too worried about Chris Perry or Kenny Watson.

Other options are Fred Taylor (old), Selvin Young (good luck picking a Denver RB from week to week) and Julius Jones (yeah, that's what I thought). It's going to be a tough haul.

For keeps

I'm listening, ironically enough, to a song called "Rainbows to the Endzone" from NFL Films music I downloaded from iTunes. How could I not?

I have announced my keepers. No one predicts that Derek Anderson can repeat his 29 TD performance from 2008. Just like my keeper QB from 2007, Vince Young, Anderson made the Pro Bowl when a bunch of guys bowed out. Anderson was one of the few NFL quarterbacks who threw more interceptions than Young's 17. Jon Kitna, Eli Manning, and Carson Palmer led the league. Has a guy ever won the Super Bowl MVP the same year that he led the league in interceptions?

Look at the cool ride that Manning gets to take home for winning the MVP.

Back on track, I am going to keep Willis McGahee and Andre Johnson. The keepers won't be announced until Wednesday, but I'm pretty sure that I will draft one of the following three players with my number three pick: Marion Barber, Clinton Portis, or Maurice Jones-Drew.

I'd have to take Portis as my top pick. He's only two months older than McGahee, although he already has 1710 NFL carries and nearly 2000 total touches. He led the NFL with 325 carries. Larry Johnson had nearly 100 more carries to lead the league in 2007. The NFL may not be a full RBBC league, but teams are being more careful with their running backs. I like his ratio of 63 touchdowns in 84 games.

Barber has a career high of 248 touches in a season. He has 33 touchdowns in 45 career games, although 28 of those happened in the last two years. Touchdowns are hard to predict. I like cold, hard carries, especially when we get a point for every ten of 'em. It's hard to imagine Barber living up to his current ADP of around seven. I think he's getting a bit too much love due to the high TD rate and his ascension to starter. The guy's only started two games in his career and he shared carries at the University of Minnesota with Laurence Maroney. If a player's ranked at or above his top fantasy rating, watch out. In the AUFL I'd take him as the 15th overall RB which would be good value.

Maurice Jones-Drew isn't as hyped as last year, when I stupidly took him over Brian Westbrook and Adrian Peterson. He "only" had ten touchdowns after scoring 16 as a rookie. Fred Taylor is still the starter and has finally shed his fragile label. In the past two years Taylor has averaged 5 and 5.4 yards per carry. MJD finished 15th last year in the AUFL. Odds are good that Taylor won't be able to hold up for 200 carries. In that case, Greg Jones might get more carries. I feel more confident knowing that Marion Barber will be The Man in Dallas, while MJD will be a nice prize for the guy picking fourth.

The players I'm most interested in ranking are the rookies. Last year it was Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, and a bucket of crap. This year there are half a dozen guys who might be RB2. McFadden is a first-rounder for sure, especially with Adrian Peterson's success. Jonathan Stewart is a possibility. I think that some owner might reach for Matt Forte or Kevin Smith in the first. I'm hoping that one of these guys is available with my early third-round pick. Rashard Mendenhall is another guy who could end up with eight or so short-yardage touchdowns. He's going to dig into Willie Parker's value. Other guys like Felix Jones, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, and even Steve Slaton probably will get drafted since it's better to go for the home run pick at the end rather than taking a boring guy like Sammy Morris.

Zach's personal story of the week

I live in a condominium complex in the Buckhead section of Atlanta. It’s far less glamorous than it seems. Directly across the street from our home is a QT gas station where all the Mexican day laborers hang out.

One of the downsides of condo ownership is that we’re not allowed to own grills. To make up for this, we have a tiny workout room, a mosquito-infested overchlorinated pool, and three grills. The two older grills were inconveniently located as far from our condo as possible. Also these grills were cleaned as often as I get a pedicure. That would be never.

About six months, I found a brand new grill installed right behind the tennis courts directly next to our building. Life was sweet.

It was the first time I used the grill. Ever other time subsequently, the grill was out of gas. Once it had gas but the grill would not get hotter than 200 degrees. When chicken is supposed to be cooked to an internal temperature of 160 degrees, that’s cutting it close.

Yesterday I was at Kroger and there was a nice selection of closeout filet mignon. This is also known as the salmonella special. I had to cook this meat the same evening. Our local grill was predictably out of gas. The second grill had gas but someone had removed the ignition button. Seriously? The third grill had a malfunctioning ignition button, but there was one of those long-stemmed flame mechanisms chained to the grill. This mechanism costs $4 at Target tops, but it was chained down. The grill caught fire with such intensity that I almost burned off my eyebrows.

I had a flame. Life was good. I also had been bitten by mosquitoes about 100 times. Because of this, I returned to the grill prepared. I wore a long-sleeve workout shirt and red workout pants. Those punks were not going to bite me. I sweated it out and cooked the meat to medium. I even risked my health for the aesthetic purpose of getting grill marks. I worked too hard to not get grill marks.

Victory was mine. I sweated out a pint of fluid and lost a pint of blood, but it was worth it. The wife and I had a glass of Italian wine on the side. I’m that worldly.

Zach’s long-neglected single of the week: Drama Queen by the Switches.

I will take a day off fantasy football discussion and congratulate Carlos Quentin, Joe Crede and Jeremy Dye for representing the White Sox in the All-Star game. I’m not sure how the team managed to lack one member of the team with the best ERA in the AL, but there were a lot of deserving candidates outside of the South Side. Here’s to the AL winning again and the NL never getting home-field advantage in the World Series again.

Sorting through the RB mess

The problem with most people’s fantasy rankings is that they generally don’t research further back than the previous year. When you want to make fun of people, it’s much easier just to look at last year’s results. The first result available on my google search for “2007 fantasy football rankings” was from si.com.

The comparison was bleak. Only three of the ten finished in the final top ten. Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, and Willie Parker finished in the second ten, which makes them less than a complete disaster. Top-ten picks Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, Rudi Johnson, and Travis Henry all finished behind both Adrian Petersons.

The downside is there weren’t too many bargains in the top twenty. Brian Westbrook started the season at eight and finished at two. Joseph Addai started at nine and finished at two. Clinton Portis, ranked 19 after an injury-plagued 2007 and the emergence of Ladell Betts (remember his hype?), finished fourth. In my year of bad decisions, trading Portis for McGahee doesn’t rank too high. It’s pretty obvious who the better University of Miami running back is.

The following running backs weren’t in the top 80 rankings and finished in my league’s top 30: Earnest Graham (10), Kenny Watson (19), Justin Fargas (20), and Ryan Grant (22). I have to call this an outlier of a statistic. It’s possible that one of these guys was rostered before the 2007 season in a Zealots league, where the rosters are 53 players deep and most teams have at least ten running backs.

Earnest Graham had 52 carries in three years heading into 2007. Some people thought that 7th round pick Kenneth Darby would take his roster spot. Cadillac Williams, Michael Pittman, and Michael Bennett had to get injured (or in Bennett’s case, be Michael Bennett) for Graham to get his chance.

Kenny Watson had 51 carries since his rookie year in 2002. He got an opportunity after super-steady Rudi Johnson fell apart and backups Chris Perry and Kenny Irons succumbed to injuries.

Justin Fargas did nothing his first three years in the league (expect a similar stat line for Chris Henry) but had 178 carries in 2006 behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Lamont Jordan and Dominic Rhodes faltered to give Fargas his first real opportunity. He would be an excellent 2008 sleeper if it weren’t for Darren McFadden. Heck, he might be a sleeper anyway.

Ryan Grant had six career carries before getting the start in Week 8 against the Broncos. The rest is history. He started only after Brandon Jackson, Vernand Morency, and DeShawn Wynn failed or got injured.

In conclusion, when looking at running backs, make sure to scout each team’s fourth stringers. That could be the key to a championship.

Don’t be surprised when Darius Walker (Texans), Ryan Torain (Broncos), Gary Russell (Steelers), and Kenneth Darby (Bucs) finish in next year’s top 30. You heard it here first.

I'll investigate the perils of taking a top-ten ranked back in the next edition.

He's a keeper

My AUFL keeper life got a little more complicated due to a trade. One owner had Steven Jackson and Adrian Peterson. Something had to give. My offer to trade Maurice Jones-Drew paled in comparison. Heck, I offered our Americanized British owner MJD for a second-round pick. He ended up giving a third-round pick for Jackson. In one way, competition was good for Steve because he got a much better deal when he shopped around. In the other, Jackson would have earned a higher pick had another owner been in the market for a running back.

Now Steven Jackson has moved from the first overall pick to a keeper. I assumed that Joseph Addai would go second. He looks like a lock for the number one pick overall. Whoever my (all caps are necessary) DEFENDING AUFL CHAMPION dad doesn’t keep between Marion Barber, Clinton Portis, and Frank Gore will go two/three most likely. After Adrian Peterson’s wild rookie ride I bet that Darren McFadden will go pretty high.

I decided to make Willis McGahee my keeper. One of his selling points is the 43 receptions he had last year. Because I like to keep a level head, I noticed that of the top 30 running backs in the AUFL, only Ryan Grant had a worse yards per reception than McGahee. I’m surprised, and maybe it’s because I haven’t read too much fantasy stuff lately, that people haven’t pointed out that Ryan Grant averaged more yards per carry (5.1) than per reception (4.9). I doubt that’s happened too many times in NFL history.

In short, Willis McGahee had a worse average per reception than LenDale White. I would point that out on draft day and rightfully deserve my penalty shot.

The view is good

The White Sox ended a seven-game winning streak last night against the Oakland As. Javier Vazquez pitched one of his best games of the year, so it was the red-hot offense that carried the burden for the defeat. It's been a great week and a half, with the Sox following a tough sweep at the hands of the Cubs by winning two of three against the Dodgers. It's sweet revenge for the 1959 World Series. The Sox avenged their sweep by taking the Cubs out in three straight. The next three games against the Indians were tough, but the Sox won them all, including the last two in extra innings. In the second game the Sox were down 2-1 in the bottom of the 10th inning when Alexi Ramirez hit a home run just past the outstretched glove of Ben Francisco. In the final game Grady Sizemore hit a home run to tie the game in the ninth, and in the tenth A.J. Pierzynski won the game with a homer.

It's a fun season after last year's hitting and pitching disaster. The Twins are equally as hot although I can't see them keeping up. The Tigers, once left for dead, are making a move and could contend come September.

I, of course, will keep one eye on the race as two important events begin. The NFL begins its season the second weekend of September. On September 2, the final season of the Shield begins. That deserves a hearty "good times."

I thought I was set to earn my second extra pick in this year's AUFL draft. I turned Ryan Grant into a fourth-round pick, although that move may work out better for my trade partner. I was in negotiations to trade an extra running back to an owner who had zero running backs currently on an NFL roster. Once the announcement went out that keepers were due on July 9, other offers started pouring in. One owner has Adrian Peterson and Steven Jackson (he finished in 10th). My dad has Clinton Portis, Frank Gore, and Marion Barber. In the latest Football Guys ratings, those RBs are rated 7, 8, and 9. Barber has been a draft-day bargain for three years, and a core member of both of my dynasty teams. This year, he's going around pick six in redrafts. Last year Barber set a career high with 204 carries. 240 might be his limit. You have to hope that he gets a ton of goal-line carries, and that's no guarantee.

I'm still vacillating between Maurice Jones-Drew and Willis McGahee. I think McGahee is the man this year but MJD could be a stud once (if) Fred Taylor retires. It's hard to hitch your wagon to a RB who isn't going to get a ton of touches. Last year MJD averaged 13 touches a game. He had ten touchdowns (one in the return game). His carries were very consistent. Only three times did he have fewer than ten carries, although only once did he have more than 15 carries. You have to deal with wideouts who get few touches. Running backs in the same boat are going to be less predictable, although MJD is a lock for 160 carries and could get up to 200.

McGahee has never had fewer than 259 carries in his four seasons. He also scored 13 TDs in his first year and has averaged six a year since. McGahee had a career high of 43 receptions last year (MJD had 40). With Cam Cameron coming in after making Ronnie Brown a superstar (pre-ACL tear of course), I could see his numbers improve. The Jaguars have a good QB and the Ravens do not. That's a consideration. In any case, McGahee will get at least 200 more touches than Jones-Drew. In the AUFL, McGahee outscored MJD by 37 points. In my dynasty league, Jones-Drew outscored McGahee by 12 points. Return yardage counts in that league.

I'm leaning toward McGahee at this point, with MJD as a strong consideration with my number three pick. Even with a couple of trades I should do no worse than Joseph Addai, Frank Gore, and Marion Barber at that pick. I'd say that even I couldn't screw that up, although last year I took MJD over Brian Westbrook. Oops.