Fantasy files: That wacky Cedric Benson

The only running back I had on my local keeper league roster worth a crap last year was Cedric Benson. If we had keepers this year, he’d be my keeper running back. Benson has been accused of punching a bartender in Austin. It’s bad enough that he was accused. It’s doubly bad (from a perception standpoint only) that he hired Ben Roethlisberger’s attorney. What also happened is that he hid this from the NFL.

The NFL doesn’t like hiding, because the NFL’s going to find out anyway. The incident allegedly happened on May 30th and Benson was arrested today. He did not let the league know, and that’s officially bad. It’s hard to say what really happened. Any time a guy who has previous issues with the law is arrested again, that’s bad. There’s enough guilt by association involved that even if he clears his name, it’s not going to be 100% clean.

A possible suspension is a good reason to drop Benson in my rankings. The fact that he got into this situation bodes poorly for him getting an extension for the team, which really hurts in keeper rankings. I loved Benson as a RB2 this year. He’s probably dropping a round or two now.

Fantasy files: Anquan Boldin

Caption: Anquan Boldin always brings it.

Is Anquan Boldin a product of the Arizona system? In his rookie year, Boldin was one of the greatest waiver-wire pickups in fantasy football history. He was the second wideout drafted by the Cardinals, and he finished the year with 101 catches for 1377 yards and eight touchdowns. He was the fourth rated wideout. In his following six years, he has not finished higher, and only once has he played 16 games.

Here's one little detail that shows how fickle ratings are. Between 2008 and 2009 Boldin caught five fewer passes for 14 fewer yards. He scored six fewer touchdowns and that was the difference between a #7 and a #23 finish.

This year he goes to Baltimore. He leaves a team that finished third in pass attempts and moves to a team that was 25th in pass attempts last year. That's a negative. He goes from being a #2 guy, although most of the time he was more like 1B, to number one in Baltimore. That's assuming that the unretiring wonder Derrick Mason gives up the mantle. Mason caught 73 passes last year, second to Ray Rice's 78. One thing most fantasy followers agree with is that Rice probably won't catch 78 passes this year. Boldin, and to a lesser extent Donte Stallworth were brought in to ensure an increase in downfield passing.

The question is whether the Ravens can support two top-20 wideouts. Derrick Mason has been in the top 20 range for three years in a row. So has Boldin. He's currently at WR#15 and overall #41. Would you use a third-round pick to select him? Mason at WR#39 and overall #110 seems like the better buy, even at age 36. Mason hasn't missed a game in seven years.

In the past, Boldin has been a consideration for a WR1. This year he's a WR2. Mason's a WR3, one of those boring vets lumped in with Donald Driver and Hines Ward. Sometimes wide receivers are too old to fail.

Fantasy files: Don't focus on one position

For my fantasy league, last year was a success. I had missed the playoffs four consecutive years, no mean feat since 8 of 12 teams make it. I finished the season with the 8th seed, so I was the final playoff participant. In the opening round I had the amazing fortune of starting Brandon Marshall in his 20-catch game and Andre Johnson had 193 receiving yards. It was the perfect storm. In the following week neither player did quite as well and I lost.

I did terribly with my running backs. I kept Matt Forte and with my first-round pick reached for Kevin Smith. I passed over Brandon Jacobs, and there wasn't much hindsight. I was screwed either way. I got Cedric Benson later and had Jonathan Stewart for the playoffs, but I benched him the week of his 23-point game against the Vikings. I think it was a Monday night game and DeAngelo Williams wasn't called out until the last minute.

I failed to win a title. That's what I'm aiming for this year. To do this, I need a lot more than Kevin Smith and Matt Forte. I need a stud RB. The problem with making up for last year's fantasy failures is that you focus too much on the recent past. I had Philip Rivers as my keeper last year but I panicked because my quarterbacks had been horrible for the past few years so I took Donovan McNabb in the third round as insurance. Imagine my team had I taken Ray Rice at that point. Instead he went before my next pick and I took Cedric Benson. Benson would have been fine as a RB2 but I had no RB1.

Concentrate on your whole team, not just one position which bit you in the you know what last year. That's the way to glory.

Fantasy files: Clearly the best

My big draft is in about six weeks. I have about 13 players ranked. When I compared my player list to the average draft position so generously provided by footballguys.com, I noticed that my rankings were almost identical to the rankings based on a lot of drafts. I wanted to rebel and drastically change my rankings but when it comes to the top guys, shouldn't there be a consensus? My rankings will surely diverge by the time we get to the 30s.

I read an article recently stating that Adrian Peterson should be taken over Chris Johnson to lead fantasy drafts. I know there are off the field issues. It's June, folks. If he's holding out in the second week of August, it's time to panic. Adrian Peterson is great and there's nothing wrong with taking a player who has finished third, third, and second in his three years. Favre should be back and rookie Toby Gerhart should take the Chester Taylor workload. He didn't even get 320 carries, although he had more than 400 touches if you count playoffs.

I watched every Chris Johnson carry last year. I even watched when he had 128 yards in the 59-0 loss at New England. He is a threat to score on every play. He played tougher than his somewhat undersized frame would indicate. As a guy who's about to get a major pay day, either this year or next, he has the motivation. I know that it's hard to repeat as the top fantasy scorer. I also know that Marshall Faulk and LaDainian Tomlinson played at a high level for years. Johnson's on the level. Luckily for guys who have a top three pick, so are ADP and MJD. I'd be perfectly content for any pick in the top three. If I'm at number one, it's Chris Johnson all the way. That's one ranking of mine that is unlikely to falter.

Fantasy files: Mocking my own mock

The problem with conducting your own mock drafts is that they are very self-centered. I completed my last four-round mock draft (full redraft with one RB, WR, and QB keeper next year) about ten days ago. In the five slot I took Frank Gore, Roddy White, Steve Smith (Carolina, pre flag-football arm injury), and LeSean McCoy. I've learned a few things from these mock drafts. I'm willing to wait beyond the "big seven" of quarterbacks, although I have them all going usually before the fourth round, which may be too soon. I have too much love for Jonathan Stewart. And I'm not sure who's going to get more scorn when they're drafted, Chad Ochocinco or Steve Smith. At least Smith's so focused on football that his hobbies include flag football. Ochocinco seems more interested in a reality TV career. Look how well it turned out for Jake and Vienna.

I took spot number three in today's mock. I wondered what I'd do if I got one of the big three. Yeah, Ray Rice is up there but there's nothing more comforting than getting Chris Johnson (less comforting every day), Adrian Peterson (what fumbles?) and MJD. I got MJD. I took Calvin Johnson in the second. Would he last until the eighth wide receiver? Would Greg Jennings go before him? I don't know. I have my methods and they are at least as good as throwing a dart at a board. In the third round I'm not embarrassed to say that I took Stewart. I think of Stewart as one of those "sneaky keepers" since DeAngelo Williams will be a free agent in 2012, assuming that football still exists then. Stewart was dropped in our league last year because as a backup he's going to have duds. Would I be good with him as my RB2? The thought of another Williams injury or using MJD/Stewart as major trade chips in the following offseason were too tempting. In the fourth round I took another upside guy who probably won't be there in DeSean Jackson. In the fifth I eschewed QB and took Hakeem Nicks. Call the team "Ultimate Upside". I'd score 30 points one week and 200 the next. It felt right.

Fantasy files: Running backs and carries

Let's be simple tonight. Let's correlate team rushing attempts with the top (projected) fantasy running backs for 2010. We'll start with the Big Four. Chris Johnson's Tennessee Titans were fifth with 499 attempts. He had more than 70% of the team's carries. It's hard to see either number going down in 2010. Minnesota was 10th in the NFL with 467 carries. ADP had 314 carries (kind of low, really), or about 67%. Jacksonville had 447 carries and MJD had 312 of them (69%). Ray Rice is the low man of the four with 54% of Baltimore's 468 carries. Don't forget that he had 78 receptions, leading all running backs.

The Not So Big Four under that, at least by my projections, is Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, Michael Turner and DeAngelo Williams. There are good reasons to knock all four but they're all capable of a crashing the top four. Gore had 229 carries (he missed two games and most of another), but had nearly 62% of the 49ers' 30th-ranked 371 carries. Michael Turner had more carries by himself in 2008. In 2009 he was hobbled by an ankle injury. Due in part to that, the Falcons passed a lot more. He had 178 carries in 2009, or about 39% of the team's carries. For a more accurate context, in the ten games that he played the majority of the snaps, he had 64% of the carries. Like that better? DeAngelo Williams, 2008's top fantasy back, came down to earth a bit in 2009. Williams touched the ball 42% of the time and will get the lowest percentage of carries in this entire group due to the big shadow of Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers were number two in rushing attempts last year and will be top ten for sure again this year. Then we have Steven Jackson, he of the paltry four touchdowns last year. He carried the ball a staggering 79% of the time (324 of 411 carries) for the Rams last year. A suspect line and a rookie quarterback do not help his standing, but that number is impressive.

Carries by themselves don't mean a ton. You're discounting receptions, touchdowns, and how much these numbers can fluctuate from year to year. It helps solidify some opinions and put others on shakier ground. Plus it's all part of the wonderful world of fantasy football.

Join the bandwagon

Picture courtesy of Tyler Duffy

Today the country (or at least the sports fans in the country) rallied behind U.S. soccer in a way that has been unseen since the 1994 World Cup. If you wonder why soccer has failed to truly reach the hearts and minds of the American sports fan, it's simple.

We didn't invent the game.
Let's look at America's top sports. Football is completely an American game. It barely has a toe hold in any other country. OK, Canada likes football, but they have their own rules and probably took over the sport so we would let them keep a few token NHL franchises. Baseball is American, although it has plenty of support in Asia and Central America. It's still ours to the point that the MLB champs call themselves World Champs. Basketball is ours. Seeing as I'm now renting to a guy who used to play basketball in Switzerland and Turkey, this is a world sport. It's still an American sport.

Hockey? We only care when the team in our town or our home town is in the Stanley Cup finals. Note that the national spelling bee championship had a higher rating than playoff hockey. Golf? Yeah, we like to play it because it's an excuse for guys to be guys and drink during the day. Tennis? Yeah, we barely care when there's a match that's heading into its 119th game in the final set.

At least Tennis knows how to do a tiebreaker. I was captivated by the story of David Vanole, who was goalie of the U.S. team that qualified for the 1990 World Cup and paved the way for the country hosting the event in 1994. He played at UCLA and was involved in a championship game that had two 45-minute halves and seven 10-minute overtimes. You mean that World Cup soccer couldn't just keep playing instead of going to penalty kicks? Let teams add one sub per overtime period. Come on.

The game today was great because it was what we want out of a sporting event. We want near misses because the final success is that much sweeter. The U.S. team was superior today, the first time we could say that in a couple of Cups. They almost gave up the trademark early goal in the sixth minute. They were denied again on a questionable call. I can't fault the refs. I fault the system that doesn't have a system to review offsides (could be done) and makes one referee cover so much ground. The goal at the end was like a fast break in basketball. Howard got the rebound off the missed shot, threw the ball out and every subsequent pass was on the money. The Algerian goalie made a heroic effort for the save but Donovan was there to bury the winner. And even after that, if Algeria had scored the U.S. would have gone from top of the group to out of the tournament. Americans love sports when the stakes are high.

I've been with the team all along, but I'm happy to see the bandwagoners. Who's up for some quality time in the man cave this Saturday? Ghana, you're next.

Fantasy files: Top wideouts

Last year answered one question regarding a Texan that we'll ask later about another player from the same team. Andre Johnson has been great in his seven-year career but there were issues. He missed seven games in 2007. He missed three games in 2005. It looked like one of those funky odd-year curses. After 2008's 115/1575/8 season, he was a top-three pick heading into 2009. The common refrain was "injury prone". Last year ended the brief curse. He caught 100 balls for the third time. He had 1500 receiving yards for the second year in a row. And he had eight or more touchdowns for the third consecutive year. That's right; he caught eight touchdowns in 2007 when he missed seven games. I had him in my keeper league for the last four years and he will be missed. He looks like the top WR to draft this year in redraft, keeper, or dynasty.

The only guy who could possibly compete is Larry Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald is more of a consistent performer. I know that Kurt Warner is gone. Jake Delhomme could be his QB and he's going to catch 90 balls. So might the other team. One stat that jumps out other than his 35 touchdowns in the past three years is his 11.3 yards per catch in 2009. It was his lowest career tally by more than two yards. I wouldn't worry so much about that. Anquan Boldin is gone, which is a plus. Matt Leinart is the QB, which is a negative except that young, inexperienced quarterbacks will focus on one receiver. Who else is he going to throw to now that Leonard Pope is gone?

Wideouts may be less consistent from game to game but I feel more comfortable about the top two guys than I do the top two running backs.

Fantasy files: Two short thoughts

I wrote these on different days but they're on the same subject. I love reading about fantasy football and especially listening to everything from The Audible. I get ideas and more importantly, it lets me come up with my own opinions on players and situations. My thoughts are on two players. Ramses Barden and Rashard Mendenhall.

Fantasy thought of the day: Heading into 2009 we didn't know how the New York Giant wide receiver corps would work out. There were a lot of candidates but it wasn't clear. Plus we assumed that the Giants were still primarily a running team and the pass game would be an afterthought. We underestimated the presence of steady but not overwhelming Eli Manning. Look what happened. Steve Smith caught 100 balls, Hakeem Nicks broke out and Mario Manningham was a quality starter for a few weeks. This year's talk of camp is Ramses Barden, who like Manningham took a quasi redshirt year. Keep an eye on him. And look for that emerging passing attack. There's value to be had.

How much does a consistent history play into your early round draft decisions? One player highlighted in this week's The Audible podcast was Rashard Mendenhall. He's a late first-round pick in some leagues and may go that high in my upcoming redraft. Mendy was practically unusable his rookie year. In his second year, once the Steelers discovered the salad fork coming out of Willie Parker's back, Mendenhall took over and was great. He earned a 1000-yard season and has practically no competition for the starting job. With the Ben Roethlisberger nonsense the Steelers look like they are going to lean on the running game again. Isn't a 300-carry, 30-catch guy worth a first-round pick and at the least, a RB1 spot? He is still an unproven commodity and few can forget Ray Lewis destroying him in his first rookie start, which ended his season. Plus if he's the ninth rated RB, is he really a value? He's being drafted at the peak of what he can do. He's not going to have a 15 or 20 touchdown year. It's possible that rookie Jonathan Dwyer takes some of the short-yardage work. If so, Mendenhall's more of a RB2 type.

Time for the Titans to "make it rain"

This game of contract chicken that the Titans are playing with Chris Johnson needs to come to a conclusion. I know you don't renegotiate rookie deals for guys who are only two years into a five-year deal, when the team has paid out most of the bonuses and only base salary remains. The Titans took a chance on him and deserve to get him on the cheap. At the same time, CJ's done something that only half a dozen NFL running backs have done in history. He had nearly 250 touches in the second half of 2009. In 2000 the Titans gave Eddie George the ball a staggering 453 times. Are we surprised that he couldn't top 3.4 yards a carry for the rest of his career? In the final ten games of 2009, CJ had 297 touches. That's about a 475-touch pace. The team gave him the ball all the time. Is there a reason why he had 31 touches in a 47-7 rout of the Rams? Because he was money.

Chris Johnson was the only reason to watch the team last year. Vince Young was fine, and his 99-yard game-winning drive was a thing of beauty. I'll take Chris Johnson's 85-yard run over that every day and twice on Sunday. He's the reason why my parents keep paying for season tickets. He has to come to training camp on time.

I know it's a rough time to try and work out an extension. The 30% rule is only an obstacle. It can be overcome. The thought of paying CJ a ten-figure signing bonus when there could be no 2011 season is sphincter-tightening for any GM. If you pay him now, you'll pay him a lot less than if you wait until next year, lockout or no lockout. He's going to get something in the crazy range of seven years and $60 million, with half of that in signing bonus. Sign him today and the number's a lot smaller. It's a risk, but to achieve greatness you have to take risks.

I don't want acrimony between the star player and the team. I also don't want my brand new super purty CJ authentic Oiler throwback jersey to be a waste of my closet space. The window of CJ's greatness could close at any time. If you're going to have Javon Ringer as your backup, we are on the verge of seeing another 400-touch season. Had the Ravens not tried to tear him in two and injured his ankle in the 2009 playoff game, he was on pace for a 300-yard game. That would have been a legendary performance and Jeff Fisher's usual playoff field goal mentality would have been out the window. You pay for the opportunity to see that performance again. The only way out of 8-8 land is a healthy and happy CJ. Do what it takes, Mike Reinfeldt. Make it rain.

Black Monday in Titanland

It was Black Monday in Titans camp. Three bad omens for 2010 came across. Rod Hood, picked up in midseason last year to start opposite Courtland Finnegan, tore his ACL. He wasn’t going to be more than a depth player, but his starting experience would be valuable for Jason McCourty and Ryan Mouton. Now he’s officially done for the year.

Titan fans were gleeful, perhaps too gleeful, when news came out about Brian Cushing’s positive drug test and four-game suspension. Part of it was pain inflicted on a division rival, but it went further when Cushing refused to take responsibility. Just like there are no really guilty men behind bars, no one who failed an NFL drug test actually took a “bad” drug. It was just some supplement. Know your supplements. I’d have everything I consumed independently tested. Chris Henry, the once and forever horrible second-round draft pick, allegedly failed a drug test for taking Sudafed. Next time, consider some chicken soup. To be safe, don’t have the kind with MSG.

Gerald McRath will miss the first four games of the season due to a positive test. He’s playing the supplement blame game. You took it, so it’s your responsibility. McRath had the inside track to taking David Thornton’s strongside linebacker role. Who’s going to take it now? The dark horse candidate would be . . . David Thornton, who now can play the NFL version of “I’m not dead yet”.

Vince Young’s the final piece of the puzzle. After his hockey brawl at a strip club, he publicly prayed that Roger Goodell show mercy. Vince, you better focus your praying on the Commish and not anyone up above, because the Commish has more power. If there’s a two-game suspension, say, and Kerry Collins wins both, it might be 2008 all over again. Next year’s draft is supposed to be QB heavy. The Titans would be wise to consider a fall back option.

This just in: Vince swings

Sunday’s news of Vince Young’s incident at a Dallas-area strip club resulted in the usual comments. He’s not mature. He’s not a leader. He’s hotheaded. Nothing good happens after midnight.

One reaction fans should not have had was surprise. Did you expect more from Vince Young? One of the keys to understanding the world is knowing who people are. VY may bring the magic on Sundays, but he's still a bit immature and not very pragmatic. When you are a highly paid football "star", you pay guys to punch people. You don't punch people. We're still trying to sell Vince as a star in this league. He's not. He could be a very good novelty act and with the best running back in the league, a great offensive line, and a receiving corps that has finally grasped the concept of catching the ball, the team can win. It's not going to be solely because of him.

As for condemning his actions, that’s easy. If someone insulted my school, the soon to be conference-less University of Missouri at Columbia, instead of swinging I might try another tactic. I might pull the Steve Martin in Roxanne, in which he offers to give a number of better insults than the one given. Now, that didn’t go so well since Martin ended up punching someone.

The better team

There are games in which you know pretty quickly which team is better. It could be one thing, like the comically easy time England had in scoring their goal in the first four minutes of yesterday's match against the United States. At that point U.S. fans had the sinking feeling they had in the opening match of the 2006 World Cup when they got smoked 3-0 by a Czech team that didn't even make the second round. As the half went on, England had possession but the U.S. made small attacks down the field. The equalizing goal was a bit of a fluke, a bouncing ball that the goalie's stopping 99 out of 100 times. It didn't matter. The better team has to overcome that.



I contrast this to Super Bowl 34. When I saw the preview on the NFL Network I had to TiVo the game and see exactly how close the Titans came to winning the game. History tells us that Kevin Dyson finished one-yard short of victory. Of course if he had scored there was about a .01% chance that Jeff Fisher would have gone for two, although considering the Rams offense (hard to write that today), it might have been the smart move.

It was a sloppy game. The Rams dominated in the first half, getting into the red zone all five times. The first field goal attempt was botched. The third was missed. I assumed from my hazy memory of the game that the Titans were completely inept offensively. They got in field goal range in the first quarter and Al Del Greco missed. In the third quarter with the score 9-0, his second attempt was blocked. Both plays were critical in the final score. When the Rams took the 16-0 lead the game seemed to be over.

Fisher made a couple of tactical errors. He went for two trailing 16-6 late in the third quarter. It was too early to go for two. The team failed. If he had not gone for two, the game would have been different. When Del Greco tied the game later, the Titans would have taken the lead and Martz might not have tried the deep pass that won the game.

But of course it's 11 years later and Steve McNair is no longer with us. This was his one shot on the big stage and he acquitted himself well. The stylistic contrast between him and Kurt Warner was vast. Leslie Visser and Brenda Warner's outfits were contrasts in terrible. I never saw a telecast that went to so many wives. We saw the wives of both starting quarterbacks and both head coaches. They don't do that anymore, or perhaps Brenda Warner was an object lesson.

Eddie George was a freaking beast. It's good to remember him at his peak as opposed to the later years when he was broken down. Chris Johnson fans, take note. You can't take away his two Super Bowl touchdowns.

As for the final play, the Titans clearly had the worst receiver corps ever to appear in a Super Bowl. Isaac Byrd, Kevin Dyson, and a Derrick Mason a couple years before he was ready along with two decent tight ends wasn't much. If the Titans won that game, it would have felt like the worse team prevailed. When it's one and done, that happens sometimes. Just ask a panicked England fan base.

Number five is not alive

If I had a draft slot not to take in the first round, it would be the fifth slot. We're talking normal boring redraft rules with no PPR, although PPR would just affect "The Big Four" and nobody else. The big four this year in redrafts are Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice. Number five is very unclear. You can reach for the first QB or WR. Then again, in our previous fantasy league's redraft, Peyton Manning went number three and was the best, safest selection in the entire draft. I assume the first QB this time won't be Manning. Frank Gore and Michael Turner come to mind when I think of number five from the RB ranks. Gore and Turner have injury issues. Gore's on a team that is determined to be run-first with the acquisition of two first-round linemen. Atlanta is also a run-first team. Gore's downside is his injury history. Turner's a little more of a sure thing but he doesn't catch a lot of passes. A dark-horse candidate who was the number one running back in all of the land two years ago is DeAngelo Williams. The Panthers are another run-first team. Jonathan Stewart looms large, probably too large in rankings. Steven Jackson has been solid but I'm not sold as him as elite. I did select Aaron Rodgers as my pick when I did a mock draft at five. I could get Brees or Manning later and be happy, although neither will be there when my first pick rolls around.

Sports blogs making the big time

Wow. A sports blog was purchased for seven figures. Let’s just have that sink in for a few. It means the following. You can make money on the Internet. It just isn’t going to happen to everyone. There is an aspect of timing and luck to hitting it big, but at least us small potatoes writers know that it’s possible.

That being said, it’s required to include the standard “don’t quit your day job” caveat. I like my day job. I also like the pursuit of writing whatever I feel like writing.

I’ll finish with this 2009 NFL statistical nugget of the day. The Cleveland Browns and the New York Jets were the two NFL teams last year that rushed for more yards than they passed. The Browns news isn’t shocking but the Jets side of the coin should make you think twice before drafting Mark Sanchez as anything but a joke in your fantasy league.

Fantasy files: A brief study of the run game

Can you do worse for fantasy insanity than spending a couple of hours gathering stats followed by doing your fifth mock draft of your upcoming redraft league? I thought not.

I have been conducting short (five rounds) mock drafts of my upcoming once in five year redraft in a local fantasy football league. Today I gave myself the fifth pick and decided to take a QB. I took Aaron Rodgers. If I had the fifth pick in a serpentine draft, I might be able to get Brady in the second but that's unlikely. And while perusing offensive stats this afternoon I'm petrified to have to start someone like Matt Hasselbeck in my bye week. I got Rodgers in the first, Miles Austin in the second, Chris Wells in the third, Jonathan Stewart in the fourth (my Michael Turner of 2011, if there is an NFL 2011 season), and Hakeem Nicks in the fifth. Instead of thinking deeply on picks I'm trying to go with my gut. The gut's usually different than the top guy in my rankings. Actually that would be a good draft-day test. Write down who your rankings say you should take and who your gut says you should take and see which team does better.

I'll do a brief review of the stats I looked up today. Today's focus is rushing yards per attempt. The Chargers averaged 3.3 yards a carry last year and did nothing to help their offensive line. Even speedster Darren Sproles averaged just 3.7 yards a carry. That's your Ryan Matthews red flag of the day. The Texans and Colts were second and third worst in YPC, which means Ben Tate and Donald Brown are good dark horse candidates in 2010. The Titans were first in YPC, but that's just because Chris Johnson is awesome. Shonn Greene already has a high draft rating but the Jets leading the league by far with 607 rush attempts is huge. In 2009 the Ravens led the league in rush attempts and Ray Rice became a top-five stud the following year. Top-ten YPC teams that are surprises are the Bills and Chiefs, neither of which has much of an offensive line. Jamaal Charles' value dropped with the signing of Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster while C.J. Spiller should cut into Fred Jackson's carries. Don't forget Marshawn Lynch, although fantasy owners will.

2010 trends: The Steelers won't pass 100 more times than they rush this year. The Browns had almost 500 attempts and why wouldn't they run it that much with Jake Delhomme as their top QB? New Orleans had a more balanced offense than you think, but it's hard to see one guy having a 300-carry season which is what fantasy guys care about. San Francisco and Atlanta should run more with healthy stud running backs. And Steven Jackson should get more than four rushing TDs this year but I wouldn't expect too many more.