Monday, March 31, 2008

The little things

I'm the kind of NFL fan who would watch when the NFL Network broadcast a replay of teh 1981 Dallas Cowboys/Atlanta Falcons playoff game. In that game, the Falcons gave up two touchdowns in the last five minutes and lost 30-27. The Falcons have hosted a total of four playoff games and this is the only one they've lost. The game turned on two unusual plays. At the end of the Cowboys' first touchdown drive, Danny White rolled right and had no pressure at all. In the key gesture of the game, he pointed to the left side of the end zone. His intention, we later found out, was to have Drew Hill go to that spot. Instead the Falcon defenders drifted that way and White hit Hill for the touchdown. Hill was double-covered, and another receiver was wide open in the right corner of the end zone.

Three plays later the Falcons had a third and four situation. They were one first down from clinching. The coaches called a sweep to the left. Before the snap Steve Bartkowski pulled Ed "Too Tall" Jones offside, at least from my point of view. Jones managed to jump back and slide across the line, directly in the path of where the play intended to go. Instead William Andrews went to the right, and danced a lot before being brought down for no gain. The Cowboys got the ball back and scored the winning touchdown with less than a minute later.

I find that replay more fascinating than most of the NCAA basketball I've watched over the past couple of weeks, and probably enjoyed it more than 99% of the baseball that I will watch over the next six months. I will ravenously devour statistics on a daily basis.

The White Sox put up a pretty good show today. Unlike 2007, their offense was potent. Just like 2008, the bullpen blew it. Octavio Dotel started his 2008 campaign by giving up three runs. In the top of the ninth Joe Borowski showed how useless the save stat is by giving up a homer and holding the Sox from getting any closer. Mark Buehrle got five outs and gave up seven runs.

It's not a good sign that my team as a whole has 44 at bats and one walk. It's worse that I know this. I'm glad that I don't get Yahoo's stat tracker all year. If you can't wait a day to get your stats, well, as Jermaine from Flight of the Conchords says, I'm not surprised.

Saturday, March 29, 2008

Anticipating the end of the Pacman era

The Titans made a move consistent with a team prepared to enter 2008 the same way they entered 2007: without the services of playmaker/rainmaker Pacman Jones. The Cowboys want him and I expect a deal to be completed some time before the 2008 draft. It may not happen as soon as the Pac haters like. From the Cowboys side, this is a low-risk move to pick up a potential Pro Bowl level cornerback. If Dallas makes the deal, they will restructure Mr. Jones' deal to make it for one year. Jones gets his new location and new start, the Cowboys get that needed second cornerback, and the Titans get rid of a headache. Some Dallas lawyer will get an excellent retainer.

The offer sheet signed on Friday with Chris Carr was another low budget, roster-filler deal. Carr has been an excellent kick returner and sometimes cornerback for the Raiders. The Titans desperately need a playmaker who can return kicks. Michael Griffin was the only guy on the team who had that ability. The Titans obviously need him to focus on becoming a top-tier safety.

The Titans also signed special-teams players Donnie Nickey and Josh Stamer. These relatively cheap moves are an attempt to open up the team's options in the 2008 draft. Defensive end and wide receiver seem to be the top needs, although safety, cornerback, and interior line depth are important as well. I wouldn't be surprised if the Titans drafted another running back. It's a deep class and I don't know if LenDale White or Chris Henry are going to be the answer. Chris Brown did play a role, besides making critical fumbles. He had that extra gear that White lacks. Anything Henry does in his second year, besides kick returning, please, will be a bonus.

I just found out today that the White Sox will open in Cleveland. The Cleveland/Detroit opening trip is going to be tough. I have a good feeling about this team. I think Jon Danks and Jose Contreras will be much better. The bullpen needs to be a strength. Brian Anderson and Alexei Ramirez are going to be important pieces of the puzzle. The foursome of Thome, Konerko, Swisher, and Dye are going to hit a lot of homers and drive in a lot of runs. Ramirez might start in center with Jerry Owens suffering the worst injury from a sports fan perspective, the partially torn groin. I think if there's any kind of tear, the word "partially" is superfluous.

ESPN put together a nice series on dynasties that might have been. For Sox fans, the mid 90s represented a fantastic missed opportunity. I don't know if you can call a team that didn't even make a World Series a near dynasty. Heck, I was looking through the amazon.com top sports books and there was one on the Red Sox dynasty. Two titles in four years is a dynasty now? Three titles in four years is the minimum, and a four-year stretch of domination, a la the Cowboys in the 90s and the Patriots of late, seems shallow.

More important than the actual baseball season is the start of fantasy seasons. My AUBL team leads 12-0 thanks to my having As and Red Sox players while my opponent did not. My dynasty team, the Second City Swatters, completed a Titans-esque free agency period by not overpaying for players, but filling out a deep roster that will probably get me no better than third in my division.

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Just one of them days

I knew it was going to be one of "those" days when a button from my pants fell into the urinal, luckily pre-stream. It's a rough time, what with the economy in a free-fall. I mean, when D.J. Hackett only can sign a two-year, 3.5-million-dollar deal, money is tight. On the other hand, the Raiders want to give Deangelo Hall more money than Asante Samuel, so the crazies aren't dead yet. Dan Snyder would be so proud.

I have a love-hate relationship with GDR. My dynasty fantasy baseball league in theory is the best kind of league. I get a combination of auction with contract years. There's a mid-season minor league draft. You get to set up a batting order and pitching rotation. There are middle relief spots to consider. There's a slight problem, though. The auction starts at noon on Friday and runs in 24-hour cycles. For part of possibly all three cycles, I'll be in the land of dial-up Internet. Few GMs have been in as precarious a position.

The FAB, or free agency blitz, has its own ebbs and flows. It's hard not to spend all your money on the first wave, when quite a few players get more than they are worth. In one league Pujols went for $25 million, or 1/4 of the cap. I have around 20% of my cap room locked up in David Wright and Carl Crawford. Suddely I'm wracked with remorse regarding the one-year extension for Francis Carmona. Because you have five SP rotation spots you need at least seven starting pitchers. I've been scouring the site for possible bargains. Usually we have four or five waves, and by the fifth most teams have no contract years or money so the few remaining owners can go on a bargain-shopping spree. I don't know if I want to put my favorite players out there in the first wave or wait.

My Cheeseburger in Paradise-fueled frenzy is almost at a close. I'll be sure to update you with tales of AOL over the weekend. Oh yeah, I still don't really care about the NCAA basketball tournament.

Sunday, March 16, 2008

Welcome to tornado alley

The condo market is in the crapper in Atlanta. There are condos in former cotton mills, schools, and warehouses. I'm guessing that an enterprising land developer decided to go retro by having a condo complex that's constructed of double-wide trailers. That's my only explanation of how downtown Atlanta was tornadoized last Friday night. Despite that, the University of Georgia won four games in four days, including a two-fer yesterday, to win the SEC tournament. That was like Vandy winning the SEC football title. Georgia only won four regular-season conference games.

Why do two teams that won their conference tournament have to play in the play-in game? Neither Mount St. Mary's or Coppin State won their regular-season conference title. MSM finished fourth and Coppin State went 7-9 in the MEAC, a conference that seems to play in this team every year. Still, they cut down the nets and teams like Miami and Texas A&M finished .500 in their "power" conference and get to play in the regular tournament. Give conference champs the bye and make the middling teams duke it out. To make things more interesting, I'd let only conference champs go to the dance and let every non-champ play their way in. That way we'd get another round in this best of all tournaments.

I'll do my annual one or two brackets and call it a day. I haven't won a bracket since Michigan (pre Fab Five) won in 1989.

Part of the "fun" of a dynasty baseball league is putting together a squad with a long-term view. I felt like a real GM when our league was renewed and I had the option of renewing two contracts. I picked Carlos Guillen for 4 million (cap is 110) and Francisco Carmona for 5. Carmona cost me .5 million last year. I'm going to keep things short tonight and just highlight one team that got lucky, or the owner is just a genius. You pick up players through something called the Free Agent Blitz. It's a timed auction which gives you 24 hours to bid on players. Whoever has the best offer wins. There were five "waves" in last year's FAB. At the end people were running out of money or contract years so bargains were had. Here's what this guy ended up with.

Russ Martin .5/1
Ryan Braun .5/2
B.J. Upton .5/2
Delmon Young .5/2
Cole Hamels 2.5/1
Chad Billingsley .5/1

He took chances on nine guys with minimum contracts for maximum years. The reward is a pretty stout team with $75 million left to spend. I have 43.5 million to spend. My needs include catcher, two power bats for 1b/dh/of, and a couple of starting pitchers. Things should get interesting.

Friday, March 14, 2008

Homerism gone too far

This week in the Titans: The Titans signed Justin McCareins to a one-year deal. McCareins is a low-risk free agent, a la Justin Gage last year. The Titans offered McCareins and Drew Bennett identical deals after the 2003 season. Bennett signed and McCareins went to the Jets for a second-round pick. The Titans turned that draft pick into Travis Laboy. Laboy, at best, will be a fourth round compensatory pick next year. When a third-year receiver catches 47 passes for 813 yards (17.3 average) and seven TDs, there's upside. In four years with the Jets, McCareins had seven touchdowns. So much for upside.

Let's talk about homerism. During my Yahoo baseball draft earlier this week, one of the draftees tried to take as many former LSU Tigers as possible. This will work out as well as Ben McDonald and Warren Morris did in the pros. Warren Morris hit the winning home run in the 1996 College World Series championship game. According to Wikipedia, he's the only guy ever to hit a two-out, ninth-inning, walk-off home run in a championship game. He hit 15 homers his rookie year in Pittsburgh in 1999, but he faded after that.

Our team called BCS Champions took LSU alum Brad Hawpe in the fifth round. He followed that up with Aaron Hill in the 7th. Ryan Theriot went in the 10th. There were Pirates (Pittsburgh native) Jason Bay in the third round, Matt Capps in the 6th, and Ryan Doumit in the 14th. There were teams that drafted solely based on name recognition. Our Florida State fan (not alum) picked J.D. Drew in the fifth round and Stephen Drew in the 13th. OK, Stephen could have been a decent pick.

I took a couple of White Sox, but both were good values. Paul Konerko was ranked 85th by Yahoo. I got him with pick 95. Jim Thome was 93rd ranked and I got him with pick number 122. You can be a homer, but don't go too crazy.

I recently discovered that one of my co-workers is a Florida fan. There are few fans more over the top than Florida fans now. This may change after the somewhat embarrassing bowl loss to Michigan and last night's first round SEC tournament loss to Alabama. After reading my white board that chronicles the Titans' free agent tally, he said that the Titans were dumb to let Ben Troupe go. I made an inappropriate comment about Troupe's intelligence. Troupe's one of those guys who looks really good during a pre-draft workout. He's an athlete, but Titan fans have learned that he is not a football player. Just think that in my rookie draft that year I agonized between taking him or J.P. Losman.

Looking back at my Yahoo draft, I did OK. Every player I drafted was at least at or below their Yahoo ranking. Hanley Ramirez at 2 and C.J. Wilson at 242 were the only two at their ranking level. C.J. Wilson was the 31st closer off the board. I was able to trade Joey Votto for Jeff Kent, so now I have two second basemen who will miss 30 games. Yeah me.

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Feeling the draft

Perhaps I'm not meant to post a blog after a somewhat frantic Yahoo draft and three beers on a Tuesday night. I feel good about my team, although I felt good about last year's team and I only kept half of the guys I drafted.

My team, in order of draft selection: I had the second/23rd slot.

Hanley Ramirez, ss
Brandon Phillips, 2b
Carlos Lee, of
Russell Martin, c
Manny Ramirez, of
Dan Haren, sp
Carlos Pena, 1b
Paul Konerko, 1b
Felix Hernandez, sp
Shane Victorino, of
Jim Thome, dh
Manny Corpas, rp
Alex Gordon, 3b
Pedro Martinez, sp
Dustin McGowan, sp
Adam Wainwright, sp
Joakim Sora, rp
Rich Harden, sp
Willy Taveres, of
Evan Longoria, 3b
C.J. Wilson, rp
Joey Votto, of/1b

I have no middle infield depth. Taking Hanley in the first round reduced me to 3b scraps like last year. I waited on pitchers and got some good ones, although I'll be tempted to dump Martinez/Harden if they start slowly. I have 13 position players to 9 pitchers, but so does my week one opponent. My week one opponent let the computer draft for him. Usually I'd make fun, but he's with his family waiting for his mother to take her last breath after a long fight with lymphoma. I guess I can wait a week to harass him about his team.

Monday, March 10, 2008

On deck

The draft is tomorrow, so naturally I'm wasting most of my time in preparation. Tonight I'm looking at last year's results to see how teams did and how players are rated last year as opposed to this year. What jumps out? 14 of the top 18 ranked pitchers were ranked lower (in most cases, a lot lower) last year. Pitchers are evil. I'll keep saying it until someone pays attention.

As I reviewed player stats in the amazing Baseball Reference, I noticed nicknames. Position players get nicknames more often than pitchers. After all, pitchers are evil. Albert Pujols is my favorite, with four different nicknames listed. El Hombre is my favorite. Here are some of the others. Lance Berkman = Big Puma. Kevin Youkilis = Greek God of Walks. Dmitri Young = Meat hook. Adam Dunn = Big Donkey. Shane Victorino = Flyin' Hawaiian. Pat Burrell = Pat the Bat (not Pat the Glove). Felix Hernandez = King Felix.

When Felix Hernandez made his major league debut, he was compared to Dwight Gooden aka Dr. K. Look at Gooden's 1984 and 1985. That's what people thought King Felix would do off the bat. Gooden had 744 strikeouts in his first three years. He had only one more 200 K season in a career cut tragically short. Maybe it's better that Felix is making a more slow transition to superstardom.

I thought I'd get more mileage out of the nicknames. Perhaps I can look at my 2007 draft instead. First round = Johan Santana. He was selected fifth overall and finished 22nd overall. I went pitching early and often last year. Santana's still a first-rounder this year, although more likely to be a late first rounder. Second round = Mark Teixeira. Spell that three times fast. He was the 20th pick and finished 47th. His numbers in Atlanta were better. B.J. Ryan and Chris Carpenter went in the second round, so I could have done worse.

In the third round I reached for Grady Sizemore. He was the 29th pick and finished 32nd. Sizemore is a 2008 second rounder. I took Carlos Zambrano in the fourth round. 44th overall, finished 137. He's more of a 7th rounder this year. Let me list the rest.

5th round (53): Rafael Furcal (224 overall); sixth rounder this year
6th round (68): Hideki Matsui (59th overall); eighth rounder in 2008
7th round (77): Adam Dunn (35th overall); fourth rounder in 2008
8th round (92): Jeremy Bonderman (671 overall); 14th rounder in 2008
9th round (101): Bobby Jenks (73rd overall); 8th rounder in 2008
10th round (116) Josh Barfield (lost his job, is not a fantasy factor this year)
11th round (125) Ramon Hernandez (772nd overall, injury plagued); 21st rounder this year
12th round (140) Nick Swisher (167th overall); 9th rounder this year
13th round (149) Barry Zito (367th overall); 20th rounder this year, how on earth did the Giants think he was worth 18 million a year?
14th round (164) Ryan Freel (891st overall); no fantasy value
15th round (173) Andy Pettite (yahoo seems to think he doesn't exist) 20th rounder this year
16th round (188) Javier Vazquez (58th overall): 9th rounder this year
17th round (197) Salomon Torres (lost closer job, useless this year)
18th round (212) Alex Gordon (355th overall): 11th rounder this year
19th round (221) Greg Maddux (208 overall); FA this year
20th round (236) Jonathan Broxton (158th overall); late rounder this year
21st round (245) BJ Upton (54th overall); second rounder this year
22nd round (260) Matt Murton (no hope this year)

The hard part about grading drafts is that in fantasy baseball, 750 players can be fantasy-relevant, while only half a dozen are so in football. Dunn, Jenks, Maddux, Broxton, and Upton were the only draft picks that outpunted their coverage, so to speak. In short, I shouldn't sweat it tomorrow. After all, with this so-called crappy draft, I led my league from start to finish. I picked up two closers off waivers, along with 20-homer middle infielders Khalil Green and Dan Uggla late in the season. And after drafting Ryan Freel as my starting third baseman, I picked up Ryan Braun off waivers. Clearly it makes sense to not get too excited about the draft and pay attention big-time to the waiver wire.

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Sunday, March 09, 2008

There will be bargains

Terrell Owens once famously stated "I love me some me." While the NFL frowns on this self-celebratory attitude, it only takes a couple of minutes of watching the NFL Network to see that there's plenty of T.O.-tude. In one pre-draft show there were at least three mentions of the fact that the draft is 50 days away. Wake me when we're in April. I feel like I can catch up in an hour or two on Tax Day.

Another pursuit as futile as NFL draft projection is fantasy draft projection. Since I'm in a Yahoo league, I thought that I'd complete a mock draft using Yahoo rankings as a guide. Half of the league, at least, will use the Yahoo rankings as gospel. One way to "beat the system" is to figure out which players Yahoo seriously underrates.

The first such discrepancy is Albert Pujols. He's #11 overall in the ESPN rankings and number four in Yahoo. Early in his career, Pujols was a fantasy rarity as a first-round player who had eligibility at three positions. The Cardinals have wisely glued him to first base. To show how dominant Pujols has been, last year was the first time in his career that he finished lower than fourth in the MVP voting. He finished fourth his rookie year after making the nearly unprecedented jump from low A ball. Drafting this guy in the first round should give you the comfortable feeling you get from selecting Peyton Manning as your fantasy QB. The potential downside is that Pujols has a nagging elbow injury. If I were trying to get one of my fellow draftees to take Pujols, I'd call the injury "nagging." If I wanted to throw the dice on him and desired to steal Pujols in the second round, I'd call it "catastrophic." The latter could accurately describe the Cardinals' chances of contending this year.

Other players Yahoo likes better than ESPN, which means I probably won't get them: Curtis Granderson (27 vs. 43), Alex Rios (30 vs. 47), Russell Martin (34 vs. 56), Manny Ramirez (36 vs. 53) and Derrek Lee (62 vs. 43). Adam Dunn is rated forty slots higher by Yahoo. His 40-slot differential and 40 overall ranking make karmic sense since he hit 40 homers each of the past three years.

Now that I think about it, I'm using the ESPN rankings from their latest magazine. Those rankings have to be at least a month old. Gosh, I remember the good old days of fantasy drafting, when a magazine was all you needed. Now I feel like I have to spend more time prepping for a redraft like the celebrities who are on Dancing with the Stars.

There aren't too many individual rankings that are too far off, at least from my limited view. What's interesting is that the first closer doesn't go off the board until the fourth round. One guy drafted Joe Nathan in the first round last year. Even he knew that was a reach. The fifth ranked catcher will go in round eight, if then. That's good, because catchers suck. I previously compared catchers to tight ends in football. While the offensive production from both positions has gone up in the past decade, the relative value is still low.

You can get Jorge Posada around pick 90, or you can take Jason Varitek around 120 spots later. Posada will give you about five more homers, ten additional RBI, and ten points on the batting average. Oh yeah, Posada batted about 50 points more than his previous career high last year.

The draft rules seem to be pretty straightforward:

1. Fill all your positions
2. Be wary of players coming off career years (like Posada)
3. Look closer at players who had an off year
4. Pick guys who due to age or opportunity are prime for a breakout year
5. Don't go crazy about closers, but do get at least two
6. Starting pitchers are going to drive you bonkers
7. Young guys will be overrated and old guys will be underrated
8. Don't draft more than one guy who only helps you in one category (hello Juan Pierre)
9. Players coming off injury can be values unless they're still injured (Pujols) or too close to the injury (B.J. Ryan)
10. Don't ever name your child with the initials "B.J."

Knowing your league helps. There are at five Pirates fans in this league. Matt Capps may go in the third round.

Thursday, March 06, 2008

Return of the Freak

Jevon Kearse signed with the Titans for a bargain-basement two-year deal. Will he replace the production lost when Antwan Odom and Travis LaBoy left for richer pastures? At least you know with LaBoy and Odom that it's not about winning, since they signed with the Cardinals and Bengals, respectively. I looked at the Bell, LaBoy, and Odom deals. If the Titans had signed all three guys to the deals that they signed with other, lesser, teams, the coveted salary cap room would be gone.

Since the salary cap has gone up almost 50% in two years, it's hard to tell whether these deals will be bargains or cap killers in future years. The Titans must have thought that LaBoy and Odom together added up to one defensive end, with Odom as more of a run-stopper and LaBoy as the pass-rush specialist. Together they're going to make about $10 million a year. That's a chunk of change, now or in two years. I liked the idea of keeping Bell. He's probably more of an average starter than a Pro Bowler, which is what the Rams' deal said he was.

The Titans aren't going to make a major free agent splash. They might as well pick up an injury-prone guy like D.J. Hackett since most Titan free agent wideouts end up hurt. If that happens, I think it's nearly a lock that the Titans will take a defensive player with their first pick. A few months ago that was unthinkable, but the Titans picked up Michael Griffin when the analysts screamed for Dwayne Bowe or Robert Meachem.

Tuesday, March 04, 2008

The downside of projection

We interrupt this regularly scheduled Titan rant for some baseball talk. I am dying to spew venom regarding how the Titans are wasting their cap space by letting proven performers like Jacob Bell, Travis Laboy (when he's not hurt) and Antwan Odom move on.

There's talk about the Titans bringing back Kevin Carter and Jevon Kearse. I know there's a two-paragraph limit on blogging about something other than your main subject, so I will segue in a moment. Carter and Kearse were solid performers for the Titans, then they moved on to supposedly greener pastures. Carter is firmly entrenched as a solid wily veteran type. Kearse is like Dwight Freeney in that his game is completely one-dimensional. For the first few years of his career, he was like the slugger who hit .250 with 60 home runs. He did the speed-rush and no one could catch him. Then he had foot problems and was a complete bust with the Eagles. One-dimensional guys who lose that dimension aren't really worth adding to your squad. The wily veteran might be.

One of the keys to having a successful fantasy team is drafting players on the way up rather than on the way down. Carter and Kearse are without a doubt on the way down. There may be no up yet for Kearse. He would be like if Juan Pierre stopped stealing bases. It's already bad enough that he's going to be a corner outfielder for the Dodgers with 12 career home runs. His OBP used to be adequate for a leadoff guy but now it's around .330. His 64 stolen bases last year were one short from his career high, so the quicks have not gone. Still I'll take Willy Taveres ten rounds later.

It's highly recommended for fantasy football to project how each player will do. That involves actually creating stats for all offensive players that you might consider drafting. The problem is, projections are generally horrible, which makes it more likely that you will have a crappy draft and hope for a Ryan Grant or a Derrick Anderson to fall to you in waivers. There's no way that I'm projecting for the 400 or so players who will be on rosters for my Yahoo league. I'm lucky if I will put the players into tiers.

If you want to take some time to get into a good depression, read Grapes of Wrath. If you want to be instantly depressed, look at the White Sox minor league system. There was precious little depth to start with. After the Nick Swisher deal, it was quite barren. Minor league team records aren't a great barometer of prospect quality, but the only White Sox minor league team that had a winning record was the Great Falls White Sox. That's their lower level rookie-league team.

I do like the name of their AAA manager, Razor Shines. He had a Crash Davis-esque 81 at-bats in the majors. Mr. Shines started his managerial career with the Kannapolis Intimidators, a North Carolina team founded in honor of Dale Earnhardt.

The top minor league prospect is Aaron Poreda, a left-handed starting pitcher drafted last year. Instead of drafting a soft-tossing college pitcher, as the Sox have done for the past few years, they drafted a hard-throwing college pitcher. Baseball America actually projects the White Sox lineup in 2011. Only one everyday player is projected to come up from the minors, a second baseman named Chris Getz who had three home runs in AA last year. The projected rotation has the same players as in this year's rotation, save Poreda. To start the 2008 season, the White Sox offense will have one homegrown player, and so will the pitching staff. In fact, the only position the White Sox seem to be able to develop is third base.

Carlos Lee was a third baseman originally before developing into a decent left fielder. He can also hit a bit. The incumbent third baseman, Joe Crede, could give way to the new third baseman, Josh Fields, who also might turn into a good-hit, bad-field outfielder. The best hope for the Sox would be for Crede to have a great spring and the Sox end up swinging a deal with the Giants to spruce up that minor-league system. If they come from other organizations, like Bobby Jenks, they might pan out.

White Sox fans can bore just about anyone for hours talking about prospects that didn't pan out. The greatest is Joe Borchard. He was an outfielder/quarterback at Stanford, and used that leverage to get a $5.3 million bonus from the Sox. I hate it how the 12th overall pick can use the very slim chance of him being a football player to make a larger bonus than the number one overall pick. Borchard put up Frank Thomas-esque numbers in 2001 in AA ball. When he got to AAA, he stagnated. In 2006 he was traded to the Mariners for Matt Thornton. Thornton was pretty good in 2006, but like the rest of the Sox bullpen, put in a craptastic 2007. Borchard was released by the Mariners less than six weeks after being acquired. I think he's with the Marlins this year.

I really can't see a best-case scenario for the Sox better than 3rd place in the AL Central this year. One of the reasons why the team has such a high payroll is you have to pay for talent if you can't develop it. A lack of young players means that there aren't too many pre-arbitration guys on the roster. Nick Swisher is a nice addition but there's no leadoff guy save Jerry Owens, and he probably won't start. Owens put together a Pierre-like 93 game trial last year, with 32 stolen bases, a .324 on-page percentage, and a strikeout rate like Ryan Braun. Braun hit 33 more home runs than Owens. Owens had one.

Man, I hope there isn't a Ryan Braun mixup at our draft like the Adrian Peterson one we had in the AUFL this year. One guy drafted the Bears' Adrian Peterson in the first round by mistake. It took us almost an entire round to notice the oversight. Ryan Joseph Braun is the rookie sensation who helped my Buckhead Sucktards to a championship. Ryan Zachary Braun is a pitcher for the Royals. His career ERA is 6.66. I don't consider him to be a 2008 sleeper.

Monday, March 03, 2008

Trying to avoid the hype

In this week’s column, Peter King shows how most of last year's big signings did not lead to help on the field. After a lengthy discussion of all the moves the Browns made, he concludes with "It's going to be fun to watch the Browns this year." That's the same kind of talk that made the 49ers a chic pick to be a playoff team last year.

Titan fans should be furious at the Raiders' management. The $50 million deal given to Tommy Kelly means that the price to lock Albert Haynesworth down just went up. Kelly has 13 sacks in 49 career games.

I'm happy that the Alge Crumpler deal is only two years. That keeps the Titans out of a David Givens/Yancey Thigpen kind of deal that looks really bad if Crumpler's knee issues are worse than reported.

Another thing: I like the trend of the media stating the guaranteed money in these free agent deals. That's all they should report. Stating the entire amount of the deals isn't accurate. The Patriots gave Donte Stallworth a (what was the deal?) last year, but it was nixed after one year. The Browns deal is worth $35 million on paper. Considering the current mortgage crisis, I'd say that "on paper" doesn't mean anything.

Did the Falcons really give Ben Hartsock a $9 million contract while the Titans gave Crumpler 5.25? Oh yeah, I forgot my bit about guaranteed money. The Titans gave Crumpler $1 million up front. The total amount of the deal is about what I thought they'd have to give him in signing bonus. It's a nice, low-risk deal. With Bo Scaife coming back, I wonder if Ben Troupe is on any NFL roster this year. The Titans might draft that elusive TE of the future anyway.

Here's another example of my point. Ben Roethlisberger signed a contract with $36 million in guarantees. What's the number the media will use? They will refer to the $102 million that Ben will in no way receive. Even if Ben Roethlisberger leads the Steelers to six straight Super Bowls, you better believe there will be a new contract four years down the road. Look at Michael Vick's former contract as a tragic example. In fact, as a one-time Super Bowl winner, if I were Roethlisberger I'd be insulted that I got $1 million less in guarantees than Vick. No, wait, I wouldn't.

Sunday, March 02, 2008

Another day, another dollar not spent

We're three days into free agency and the Titans haven't overpaid for anyone. There's a bit of panic by the fan base since there is all this cap room and someone has to get it. I really wonder if the Titans are OK with just franchising Haynesworth. Here's the theory. Haynesworth has always had the talent. He just hasn't been consistent. He had a great year when his contract was expiring. If he's franchised, he'll have the motivation again, even if it means the Titans don't sign him next year.

While it's cliche to talk about players getting the money and then letting up on the competitive fire, it applies to defensive linemen because of their incredible bulk. Can you imagine how hard it is to maintain your body when 320 pounds is in shape? I don't know how Haynesworth kept himself conditioned with the hamstring injury. Giving big bucks for a defensive lineman is a risk. Let's not forget his stomping on Andre Gurode two years ago. Off-the-field issues have a tendency of disappearing when a player performs

I'm thinking that I might do a bit of positional analysis for fantasy baseball. When I think about fantasy baseball positions, I try to compare it to fantasy baseball. Most of the time the comparisons don't work, but it's fun to have a point of reference.

Catchers are like tight ends. A good tight end in football is a "two way" player who blocks like a tackle and catches like a wideout. That would be a wideout not on the Titans. The blocking part is useless for fantasy purposes. That's why Mike Piazza was the perfect fantasy catcher. His defense was inadequate, but he hit like a first baseman. Note that two of the best catchers, Victor Martinez and Joe Mauer, are such good hitters that there's talk of moving them to another position. Victor Martinez played more than 20 games at first base last year. There's talk about Mauer moving to third.

Since catchers aren't offensive wonders, does it make sense to punt the position and get A.J. Pierzynski in the 15th round? Pierzynski will give you 15ish home runs, a .260 batting average, and maybe 60 RBIs. Forget about stolen bases. While Victor Martinez had an incredible 114 RBIs, he averaged 87 RBIs in the previous two years. Is that worth a ten-round premium? Actually Russell Martin might be a better deal. He's the ubiquitous young guy with upside. Last year he had 19 home runs and 21 stolen bases, and getting any stolen bases from the position is gravy. I'd have to give up a fourth round pick for him, probably. Is it worth it? I can get a 20/20 guy in the outfield for a much lower pick. Last year I drafted Ramon Hernandez in the 11th round. Hernandez spend half the year on the DL. Actually it would make sense for me to draft him since guys who are terrible on my team tend to bounce back the following year.

Catcher is kind of like tight end in that more teams have guys who are two-way players now. I wouldn't call catcher a deep position, though, since I ended the year with Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Like Martinez, he has eligibility at two positions. Unlike Martinez, he doesn't have a certain spot in the lineup. Ben Broussard is the first baseman for the Rangers, so it's possible that Salty ends up catching a couple of days a week and playing first base a couple of days a week. That's not what you're looking for in a daily league. Salty is routinely ranked in the top ten of catchers.

In the dynasty league, there's one catcher theory that works. You're allowed to post a backup player, and it's cheap and sensible to get a catcher's actual backup as the position backup. The year I had Mauer and Mark Redmond, his backup, was excellent. That was Mauer's one year without injury, and Redmond hit better than .300. A lot of teams have catcher platoons, and you can get 20 homers from such a seteup. Heck, the Royals have John Buck, who hit 18 taters in 347 at bats. His new backup is Miguel Olivo, a former Sox prospect who hit 16 homers in each of the past two years. There was talk of allowing Olivo to play another position, like left field, but that's probably out.

Where was I going with this. . . oh yeah, draft a good catcher or you will suffer. Don't get too worked up about the position since even the best guys play maybe 130 games. Having a rotation in a daily league makes sense if you know when your guy is going to sit, but that's a slot on your roster that won't go for that extra outfielder with upside (hello, Dave Roberts). Sadly there are only three catchers with other positional eligibility, and one of them is the top guy in the position. One of the others (Salty) might start the year in AAA and the other (Ryan Doumit of the Pirates) may not play catcher at all and could be a part-time player. Doumit has played first base, outfield, and catcher. His career high in games played is 83, so he's a late-round pickup at best.

I may continue with the thrilling catcher position tomorrow, or I might talk about how the Titans are saving their cap room to pay for Jeff Fisher's divorce.

Saturday, March 01, 2008

48 hours

So we're almost 48 hours into free agency and the Titans haven't signed anyone. Donte Stallworth went to the Browns and Bernard Berrian went to the Vikings. Neither guy has put together an All-Pro season. Stallworth is a good deep threat but has never caught more than 70 balls or exceeded 1000 yards. Berrian's career high numbers from last year are similar to Stallworth's career highs. Both guys are 27, although Stallworth has been in the league three more years. I don't see either guy as a number one wideout. If the Titans had signed either guy, would I be happy? Somewhat.

Josh Brown signed a five year, 14.2 million dollar deal with the Rams. Has the price for Rob Bironas gone up? The Titans gave him a second-round tender, so he's probably not going anywhere. It's interesting.

Yes I finished my dyansty league finances. No I haven't given the Donald Trump finger yet. The weekend is young.