Monday, February 20, 2006

Dynasty continued

Last time I blogged, I discussed the sticky situation of dynasty leagues and skill positions. I got through quarterbacks and running backs, and I’m sure my readership of three is dying to hear how I’m doing in the wideout department. Both teams are rather weak in that department, to be honest. It’s a good thing that there’s a crappy crop coming out in this year’s draft, eh?

In z17 I have the following wideouts:

Reggie Wayne
Kevin Curtis
Jerry Porter
Antonio Chatman (RFA)
Isaac Bruce
Michael Jenkins
Arnaz Battle
Shaun McDonald
Nate Burleson

Here’s how I got my guys:

Original draft: 3.11 Anquan Boldin (traded); 6.7 Justin McCareins (traded in part of a deal to get Jerry Porter); 8.05 Isaac Bruce; 10.01 Reggie Wayne (nice); 15.11 Kelly Washington; 27.11 Nate Burleson (great value at the time); 33.08 Reche Caldwell; 2.08 rookie Michael Jenkins, rfa Clarence Moore

I traded Boldin and McCareins. I picked up Jerry Porter and Arnaz Battle in rookie draft trades. I drafted Craphonso Thorpe in the sixth round of the rookie draft and released him before the season started. The rest of the guys are free agent pickups.

How did things get this bad? I scored with Wayne and as long as he stays a Colt he’ll be a borderline WR1/WR2 guy. Kevin Curtis could be huge, or he could be the next great hyped white wideout to flame out. Jerry Porter is decent but never will be a star. Isaac Bruce is done. I’d give up Chatman for a pack of gum at this point. I have some hope in Nate Burleson being a contributor. I’m not sure if he’s a number one wideout anymore. Injuries do that to a man’s confidence. As a result of my poor planning I’m making free agent bids on guys like Ronald Curry and Drew Carter. Actually I’m targeting Carter in two leagues. I have the 1.11 pick which could be the number two or three wideout in this thin class.

Oh yeah, you can’t forget that I traded Keith Bulluck and Anquan Boldin for Kevin Jones. Talk about buying high.

In z34 I have the following wideouts:

Torry Holt (3.06 draft)
Donte Stallworth (14.02 draft)
Ashlie Lelie (5.07 draft)
Michael Jenkins (22.05 draft)
Shaun McDonald (33.10 draft)
D.J. Hackett (free agent)
Nate Burleson (7.06 draft)
Roydell Williams (rookie draft)
Vincent Jackson (rookie draft)
Clarence Moore (26.09 draft)
Ronald Curry (free agent)

As you can see, things could be worse. You could win some money from buddies with the knowledge that D.J. Hackett was a better fantasy wideout in 2005 than Nate Burleson. McDonald was my WR8 in z17 but he’s my WR5 in z34. Ouch. I did plan OK for wideouts but early-round picks like Burleson and Lelie flamed out. I should have known better than Lelie. The problem with my lower guys is that there’s not much room for growth. Curry could push Porter but he gets injured too much. Jackson could be a force in San Diego but it might take two more years. Michael Jenkins has Mike Vick at QB. I don’t think Donte Stallworth will ever be anywhere close to a guy who was worth a top 15 overall draft slot in the NFL. He actually was the number 19 wideout in our format, which isn’t bad for a 14th-round selection. The problem is I benched him on his three top scoring weeks.

With a stud in Holt I can afford to suffer a bit at WR 2 and WR3 but not this much. Perhaps I could trade down a slot or two in the rookie draft (I’m at 1.04) to get Santonio Holmes. He’s supposed to be the top wideout selected in April.

Don Banks said that he thought the Titans would take Jay Cutler over Vince Young at 1.03. It’s possible. I could see Cutler being a more pro-ready quarterback. Young played almost exclusively in the shotgun in college. So did McNair. I know QB is probably the right way to go at 1.03. Unless you get lucky and find a Roethlisberger or a Marino, drafting a QB that early means you’re ready to do the football equivalent of rebooting your computer. I’d rather not be in Year 2 of a four-year process.

Saturday, February 04, 2006

I Got Your Dynasty Right Here

How do you build a dynasty winner? It’s not simply a matter of drafting well. There are a lot of factors, including trades not made. When it comes down to having a staggering 53 roster spots, there are a lot of potential deals to be made. Since I have this forum I’m going to break down my two roster squads by position. This time I’ll talk about my quarterbacks.

In the z17 inaugural draft (April of 2004), I took the following quarterbacks:

6.05 Steve McNair
13.01 Jake Delhomme
16.02 Tim Rattay
21.07 Billy Volek
32.04 Drew Brees
47.01 Dave Ragone
53.02 Kirk Farmer (good ‘ol Missouri boy)
5.12 rookie draft Matt Schaub

As you can see, I didn’t reach for any of my quarterbacks and ended up with a solid group. Drew Brees was an especially nice reach. I undid that great pick when I let Brees go for a couple of rookie picks in last year’s rookie draft. When I got to the title game this year, my opponent had Brees. In 2005 I picked up Andrew Walter, Stefan Lefors, and Kyle Orton in the rookie draft. The value was there. I go into 2006 with Jake Delhomme as my starter. He’s a borderline fantasy starter. McNair might give me one more year as a backup. I’m hoping that Matt Schaub will get a starting shot next year. I’ll have to wait for the inevitable Vick injury. I could use a stud at the position, for sure.

In the z34 inaugural draft (March of 2005), I took the following quarterbacks:

6.03 Ben Roethlisberger (traded up)
9.11 Jake Plummer
15.07 Billy Volek
16.08 Steve McNair (traded up)
31.12 Matt Schaub
3.03 rookie Andrew Walter

As you can tell, I like Matt Schaub and Andrew Walter. I traded up for Roethlisberger which I didn’t have to do. I made eight different draft deals. Plummer started eight games for me and probably will be my number one guy next year. Roethlisberger can be a spot starter and McNair does play the Texans twice next year. I feel pretty good that next year’s 1.04 rookie pick will become either Matt Leinart or Vince Young.

It’s running back time. With three potential starters (one flex), there is a definite scarcity. Let’s see how my dynasty teams stack up at the position.

In the z17 inaugural draft, I took the following running backs:

1.01 LaDainian Tomlinson
4.01 Deshaun Foster
6.03 Correll Buckhalter
10.03 Eddie George
12.10 Artose Pinner
26.11 Mike Anderson
31.03 Jamal Robertson
1.02 rookie Julius Jones
3.02 rookie Michael Turner
2006
2.05 Marion Barber
4.03 Darren Sproles

My first draft wasn’t solid at RB. I got Tomlinson to start, a nice piece I’ll admit, but I really didn’t have a RB2 when the draft was over. I traded a ton (two first rounders and a second) to get Julius Jones. Since Jones was hurt most of last year I traded Anquan Boldin and Keith Bulluck for Kevin Jones. I was set up at RB for the next five years, or so I thought. My perceived running back situation had me trade or outright release Mike Anderson and Deshaun Foster in the offseason. I did set up my roster so I had backups for Tomlinson, Jones, and Jones. My one great in-season move was to pick up Samkon Gado. I need the Jones boys to step up or else my long-term plans are pretty much shot.

My z34 inaugural draft picks at RB:

1.10 Julius Jones
3.05 Larry Johnson
5.04 Warrick Dunn
9.08 Mewelde Moore
16.06 Chester Taylor
27.06 Shaud Williams
48.06 Josh Davis
49.01 Reshard Lee
rookie
1.03 Cedric Benson
1.10 Eric Shelton
2.06 Marion Barber
Deandra Cobb rookie FA

My RB experience in z17 had me drafting RBs early and often. Four out my first eight regular and my first three rookie draft picks were running backs. I knew that I’d have to be patient with LJ and it worked out. Julius Jones might be no better than a RB2. Warrick Dunn had his best year, and may have one more solid year. A new head coach in Minnesota could help Moore’s career. I have to decide in the offseason whether to trade a 2007 first-rounder for Thomas Jones to consolidate the Bears’ running attack. Taking a bunch of running backs left my team weak in other areas, like linebacker, WR2, and TE. I’d like to trade off some of the surplus but no one’s bit so far. I think the 1.04 rookie pick could be a QB, but if a top RB like Deangelo Williams drops I’m taking him.