Fantasy files: Mock'd again

Let’s not forget the mock drafts. I haven’t stopped mocking but I have slowed my mock roll by going deeper than my original goal of two rounds per draft. It’s like drinking beer. After you have two rounds, you decide to stop on an odd number. After three, you decide to stop on an even number. And so it goes. My final mock from the 12 spot went eight rounds.

The downside of the 12 spot is the wait between picks. I haven’t drafted from the 12 spot other than a few Zealot rookie drafts since 2003. I did have the 12 spot in our league’s initial live redraft. It was 2001. I got Curtis Martin and Ahman Green (we could keep two running backs then) at the turn and it was downhill from there.

Before my draft I read Matt Waldman’s upside down strategy. This strategy, since the link’s for footballguys.com subscribers only, is to draft a bunch of sleeper running backs later and load up on WR/QB/TE early. His sleeper guys from last year included Cedric Benson, Ray Rice, Rashard Mendenhall, and Donald Brown (had to include one guy who didn’t work out). The key of course is finding the right sleepers and “buying” them in volume so two or three hit out of your five/six drafted.

I thought about using that theory until it was my turn to draft. My #9 overall guy, Michael Turner, was there so I had to snag him. I took Miles Austin at the 2.01. I could have drafted Miles Austin and Calvin Johnson and dominated the WR position. I chickened out.

The list I used for the other teams was the current top 300 PPR list from the same footballguys.com folks. The second round featured seven wide receivers, three RBs and two QBs. That means guys I had pegged as second-rounders like Ryan Grant, Knowshon Moreno and DeAngelo Williams are third rounders. Talk about super values. At the end of the third round, Tom Brady was the last of my Big 5 quarterbacks left so I took him. We have an uber die hard Patriots fan in our league. If he would have a tattoo, other than that of his employer, it would be Brady’s mug. I don’t think Brady gets out of the second. I took Shonn Greene at 4.01, which guaranteed me a starting RB lineup that may not combine for ten catches this year. In a PPR league, that’s begging for touchdowns.

In the fifth/sixth rounds I took Welker and Tony Gonzalez. I like him as the sixth TE off the board. Welker gets a good bump because of his potential keeper value and he should get better as the year progresses. Before this week’s active PUP preseason announcement, I could have seen him sneak into the second round. He may still do so.

At the 7/8 turn I got Devin Hester, lottery ticket pick, and Donald Brown. The changing of the guard in Indy that most anticipated to happen last year could come one year later. With Joseph Addai a free agent after this year, I see Brown as another sleeper keeper pick.

I like how this draft stacked up, although some of the guys in the top 100 of this list, like Jerome Harrison, Darren Sproles, and Tim Hightower, aren’t going that high in our draft. Call it a hunch.

Fantasy files: To kill a mocker

Before I proceed, here's my Twitter Draftmaster II roster after nine selections.

QB: Matt Ryan (6)
RB: Frank Gore (1), Knowshon Moreno (2), Clinton Portis (7)
WR: Steve Smith Carolina (3), Devin Hester (5), Lance Moore (8), Arrelious Benn (9)
TE: Jason Witten (4)

Yes, my wide receivers suck. Let's move on; shall we?

Mock drafts wear me out. I thought it would be fun during lunch yesterday, and I agree that my idea of fun differs from most of America, to do 12 two-round mocks with me drafting from each slot. Due to my usual surf meandering and other things that popped up, I was only able to complete three. What did I learn?

When I went back, I tended to forget certain players. On the first mock I got pick number one and took the obvious CJ2K. Who would fall to me in the second? I got a 2/3 turn of Brandon Marshall and Tony Romo. That's not bad. I did forget that Shonn Greene existed for purposes of this mock. I'm not sure if Pierre Thomas would go in front of them.

With a mock draft, it's impossible to consider everything. Do you draft the other 11 slots off of one list, use multiple lists, or go based on feel? In a live draft featuring people who have drafted together more or less for a decade, you know that wacky picks are coming. Since Peyton Manning went #3 overall in our previous redraft in 2005. I got Edgerrin James, Julius Jones, J.J. Arrington, and Jake Plummer as my first four picks. Yes, I need to atone. Arrington's 370 rushing yards in his rookie year represented a career high. Yes, I enjoy rubbing salt into wounds.

I've only completed the mocks from slots 1 through 6. I'm not really sure if I have a favorite. Obviously the 1 overall with the 24/25 turn is pretty solid.

From the 1: CJ2K, Brandon Marshall, Tony Romo
From the 2: MJD, Tom Brady
From the 3: MJD, Greg Jennings
From the 4: Ray Rice, Miles Austin
From the 5: Andre Johnson, Miles Austin
From the 6: Andre Johnson, Tom Brady

What does this list tell about me? I'm not afraid to split up the positions. In 2005, I was RB crazy. Now that we've switched to PPR and have added a flex position, WRs have more value. Plus it seems like the players are scoring more fantasy points than they did five years ago. You'd probably take Eli Manning's numbers in 2005 and assume you were going to lead the league in QB points. It feels like a deep draft.

After the "big four" running backs, I get nervous. While I don't like taking the first of any position, having Andre Johnson would be nice. I picked him up in the second round of our 2006 draft, after the worst year of his career. He's clearly going to be on my team's Hall of Fame list even if I don't get him back. In our five years of keeper teams, I never kept the same RB or QB for consecutive years. Having Johnson was great. Of course I got him at a bargain price. It's tougher to pay a first-round price on a wide receiver. They aren't going to get the touches a RB or QB gets. RBs of course are more injury prone and you feel like there are a lot of potentially great quarterbacks.

By the end of next week I'd like to get through four rounds of mock for each spot. I do like the fact that we're pulling draft slots the night before the draft. Otherwise it would be too boring. It's still possible that I could get any player, and when the slots are announced, that's over.

Courted by a quarterback

Aaron Rodgers wooed me last night. And I can't lie, it was kind of nice. I haven't TiVo'd an NFL Network replay in a while. When I saw the Wild Card game between Arizona and Green Bay, I had to watch that.

It featured the most points scored in an NFL playoff game. It featured two of the top quarterbacks in the league. The Cardinals had made an improbable playoff run the year before and had Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald. In what must be a playoff tradition, Anquan Boldin was out with an injury. Aaron Rodgers was in his first playoff game. The Packers had just scored the most regular season points in franchise history. It looked like an epic game.

It came close to being an epic blowout. For a game with such offensive firepower, the difference came down to two defensive plays. It was pitch and catch with Wamer hitting Steve Breaston and Early Doucet a lot. The Packers had two early turnovers and couldn't get the offense untracked. Leading 17-0 and close to the red zone, Warner hit Fitzgerald over the middle. Charles Woodson stripped the ball and the Packers had life. Later in the game I saw their punter bouncing the ball off the turf. He wouldn't make it back in the game. Since the game skips plays I can't be 100% certain, but it looks like the Packers scored on their next seven possessions.
And it wasn't like the Cardinals put their foot off the accelerator. After the Packers scored their first touchdown, the Cardinals struck back. Leading 24-10 at the half, the Cardinals scored what looked like a game-clinching touchdown to make it 31-10. After Green Bay scored, recovered an onside kick, and scored again, the Cardinals added another touchdown to pad a 38-24 lead.

I'm not talking about Rodgers enough. He got sacked a lot last year. The offensive line wasn't great. On one red-zone play the Cardinals blitzed defensive backs from both corners. Rodgers flushed right and completed a pass for a first down. He's a very mobile quarterback who almost always looks to pass rather than run. I think I saw one scramble the entire game. One thing that surprised me about the game was that Jermichael Finley seemed to be covered by a cornerback when the Cardinals bothered to have a man on him. On a third down play, Rodgers just heaved the ball up 40 yards and hoped that Finley caught it. He did. While Rodgers spread the ball around, Finley and Greg Jennings were his main men. Jennings had one of the best touchdown catches I've seen ever when he ducked inside, turned his head, and stuck one hand out to slow down a Rodgers fastball and cradle it for a score.

The defenses couldn't stop anyone. The Packers tied the game. The Cardinals scored another touchdown. The Packers tied it at 45 with less than two minutes. The Cardinals easily got into field goal range. Neil Rackers missed an easy kick. Later the coach said that they threw Rackers out there without much of a warm up and he rushed the kick. I see why the team moved on without him. Assuming Arizona fans didn't just discover their team last year, a loss would have been devastating.

The Packers got the ball in OT and the assumption was that they'd score and win, taking their first lead only in the extra session. On the first play Rodgers missed Jennings on a post. That's what was amazing about the game. There were no bombs. Every scoring drive took time.

On third down the Cardinals blitzed Mike Adams, a cornerback who had been torched all day. He got a hand in, knocked the ball out of Rodgers' hand, and Rodgers' foot kicked the ball to Karlos Dansby who trotted in for the winning score. It was exactly how no one would have predicted the game to end.

Despite the final turnover, Rodgers really wears that uniform, know what I mean?

Fantasy files: PPR rounds 6 and 7

Did I panic? In today's edition of the Draftmaster Twitter draft, I made two picks. I think that was a record. In the sixth round I took Clinton Portis to be my RB3. I didn't like the WR values, but almost all of "my guys" were gone by the end of the round. I thought about TJ Housh and Lee Evans and both are gone. The selection of Housh always leads to the obligatory "championship" joke.

The first pick of the seventh round was Brett Favre. He was the 11th quarterback taken. I was one of two teams left who had not taken a QB. I couldn't wait. I took Matt Ryan. I wanted to pass on QB as long as possible and take two borderline starters since this is a best ball league. There wasn't a ton of talent left at other positions so I pulled the trigger. I really think Ryan can move up into the 25+ TD range this year. The team could run more than in 2009 but that's all right. He doesn't have the upside of a Favre, but his floor seems to be high. When you're digging for the last beverage in the icy water at the end of a party, you just care that it's cold.

Fantasy files: PPR slow draft bonanza

I'm not sure why I'm so mentally taken aback by the drafting in this 16-team league. Basically every three rounds is like four in a 12-team league. Because it's a round or two above where they'd go in a 12-team league, every player seems like a reach. A Web-based draft is sure to suffer when the weekend strikes. It's kind of the dirty fantasy football secret that most work is done during the week.
If you don't like my gory details, just go to the site.

When my fourth round pick came up, I had Frank Gore, Knowshon Moreno, and Flag Football All Star Steve Smith. The pick had to be a receiver. It only seemed like 45 wideouts had been selected. Again, like in the second round, I zagged. I went with Jason Witten. What's not to like about a TE who has 271 catches in three years? The paltry two touchdowns last year doesn't help, but in a way it does. One of the easiest ways to mine for value is to look for guys who didn't score a lot of touchdowns last year (Jason Witten, Greg Jennings) and lower the value of guys who scored a ton of touchdowns last year (Vernon Davis, Adrian Peterson). I think Witten was the fifth tight end, so I went for a top tight end at the cost of hurting my wide receiver points.

In the following round I may have reached a bit. Honestly, once you get past the third round, ADP kind of goes out the window. If you like a guy, especially when you're waiting up to 20 picks for your next guy, take him. I took Devin Hester. He was my 17th ranked wide receiver. Can he catch 80 passes this year? Sure he can! I think the Bears' offense might be a tad overrated as a whole, but you can get value out of the receivers since it's unclear who's going to be the main, secondary, and tertiary guy. Hester's going to get tons of chances to catch short passes and make big plays. Isaac Bruce is helping him with Mike Martz's system. That's what is to like about a guy I took about 20 slots ahead of his ADP.

I have an interesting quandary. Nine QBs have been taken. I could wait for 11 guys to be taken, play the QBBC game, and load up on other positions for another couple of rounds. Jay Cutler and Kevin Kolb went today.

Fantasy files: Drafting PPR style

It’s exciting to be wanted. I was invited to a Twitter Draftmaster league hosted by the tireless Taz, who does approximately 46 hours of fantasy podcasts on blogtalkradio.com. Check him out. This is a ‘draft only’ league, which means you draft your players and are done. There are no roster moves during the season and your scoring is “best ball”. No lineups. The only thing that matters is the draft.

So the draft started. As often happens with these kind of quickly put together leagues, I had no idea what the rules were or even how many teams were in the league. It’s a 16-team league. There’s one starting QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, a TE, and a flex RB/WR/TE. There’s also a PK and a defense/special teams squad. It’s PPR and passing touchdowns are worth four points.

I had pick 1.07. I liked this because in my upcoming keeper draft I know that this is one of the interesting spots in the first round. Will things go to form or will there be a monkey wrench pick? 1.03 was the wrench. Peyton Manning went third. He’s not the usual first QB selected. At 1.04 Andre Johnson went. Sadly Ray Rice and MJD went ahead of me. At 1.07 I didn’t hesitate. I took Frank Gore.

What’s tougher than sitting in a live draft with a pick in the middle of a round, constantly waiting? Being in an online draft with a 24 hour clock. My next pick could come up in 20 minutes or it could be next Tuesday. The first round hasn’t ended. This is the downside of drafting. At least it’s not like the NFL Supplemental Draft, where no one has been selected in the first five rounds. Now that’s a lot of waiting for nothing.

Second round update: Due to the PPR nature of the league, wide receivers were popular. I went rogue and took my second running back in Knowshon Moreno at pick 2.10. He was the 12th running back taken. I feel like I have a shot at two of the top ten running backs. Now I get to wait for the third round to see who my first wideout is. I doubt that I'll take a QB, but you never know.

Fantasy files: Drafting PPR style

It’s exciting to be wanted. I was invited to a Twitter Draftmaster league hosted by the tireless Taz, who does approximately 46 hours of fantasy podcasts on blogtalkradio.com. Check him out. This is a ‘draft only’ league, which means you draft your players and are done. There are no roster moves during the season and your scoring is “best ball”. No lineups. The only thing that matters is the draft.

So the draft started. As often happens with these kind of quickly put together leagues, I had no idea what the rules were or even how many teams were in the league. It’s a 16-team league. There’s one starting QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, a TE, and a flex RB/WR/TE. There’s also a PK and a defense/special teams squad. It’s PPR and passing touchdowns are worth four points.

I had pick 1.07. I liked this because in my upcoming keeper draft I know that this is one of the interesting spots in the first round. Will things go to form or will there be a monkey wrench pick? 1.03 was the wrench. Peyton Manning went third. He’s not the usual first QB selected. At 1.04 Andre Johnson went. Sadly Ray Rice and MJD went ahead of me. At 1.07 I didn’t hesitate. I took Frank Gore.
What’s tougher than sitting in a live draft with a pick in the middle of a round, constantly waiting? Being in an online draft with a 24 hour clock. My next pick could come up in 20 minutes or it could be next Tuesday. The first round hasn’t ended. This is the downside of drafting. At least it’s not like the NFL Supplemental Draft, where no one has been selected in the first five rounds. Now that’s a lot of waiting for nothing.

Second round update: Due to the PPR nature of the league, wide receivers were popular. I went rogue and took my second running back in Knowshon Moreno at pick 2.10. He was the 12th running back taken. I feel like I have a shot at two of the top ten running backs. Now I get to wait for the third round to see who my first wideout is. I doubt that I'll take a QB, but you never know.

Fantasy files: Drafting PPR style

It’s exciting to be wanted. I was invited to a Twitter Draftmaster league hosted by the tireless Taz, who does approximately 46 hours of fantasy podcasts on blogtalkradio.com. Check him out. This is a ‘draft only’ league, which means you draft your players and are done. There are no roster moves during the season and your scoring is “best ball”. No lineups. The only thing that matters is the draft.
So the draft started. As often happens with these kind of quickly put together leagues, I had no idea what the rules were or even how many teams were in the league. It’s a 16-team league. There’s one starting QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, a TE, and a flex RB/WR/TE. There’s also a PK and a defense/special teams squad. It’s PPR and passing touchdowns are worth four points.

I had pick 1.07. I liked this because in my upcoming keeper draft I know that this is one of the interesting spots in the first round. Will things go to form or will there be a monkey wrench pick? 1.03 was the wrench. Peyton Manning went third. He’s not the usual first QB selected. At 1.04 Andre Johnson went. Sadly Ray Rice and MJD went ahead of me. At 1.07 I didn’t hesitate. I took Frank Gore.
What’s tougher than sitting in a live draft with a pick in the middle of a round, constantly waiting? Being in an online draft with a 24 hour clock. My next pick could come up in 20 minutes or it could be next Tuesday. The first round hasn’t ended. This is the downside of drafting. At least it’s not like the NFL Supplemental Draft, where no one has been selected in the first five rounds. Now that’s a lot of waiting for nothing.

Second round update: Due to the PPR nature of the league, wide receivers were popular. I went rogue and took my second running back in Knowshon Moreno at pick 2.10. He was the 12th running back taken. I feel like I have a shot at two of the top ten running backs. Now I get to wait for the third round to see who my first wideout is. I doubt that I'll take a QB, but you never know.

Fantasy files: Projections aftermath

What have I learned from my exercise in projection, aka my exercise in futility? I tried my best to project players based on more than last year's stats. After all, that's what I feel like most projections do. Anyone who predicted a top-ten finish for Miles Austin last year would have been laughed off the Internet. More likely would be giving Roy Williams Miles Austin's numbers.

Let's start with running backs. I'm trying to make running backs less important in my local keeper league, and the first part of that plan, PPR, is about to pass. That's good. The next part would be to make the RB2 position into a flex RB/WR spot. If that happens, my worry about the RB quality dropping off the table like a cut fastball will be over. I ranked my players prior to projecting them. I did not project them in order of finish. I projected them by team. My top 6 remained in the same order. CJ2K, MJD, APD, Ray Rice (needs an acronym), Frank Gore, and Steven Jackson. With a rookie QB I gave Jackson the lead in carries. He's also the only RB in my top 11 to project with less than nine touchdowns. If I was off in one category it's probably touchdowns.

My number seven guy is currently Michael Turner. Is he hurt that badly by the switch to PPR? From a guy who's caught 11 passes in two years, probably yes. He, Jonathan Stewart, and Shonn Greene drop the most in this format. I'd still rank him at 7 even though according to my projections he'd be the #11 guy. Yeah, his ranking his highly dependent on touchdowns. I had DeAngelo Williams at 8 in my rankings and he was #12 in projections. I probably give too much credence to the thought that the Williams/Stewart party will break up after this year and both guys could be 300-carry guys in different cities.

Another guy who drops due to PPR is Ryan Grant. He doesn't catch a lot of passes. I don't know why the difference between catching 19 and 30 passes seems so vast. It just does. I think I wussed out and predicted nine scores for him after 11 last year and four two years ago. It's going to be somewhere in the middle.

I have Matt Forte 16th. He's 21st in the rankings. The Martz offense is tempting my tummy with the taste of nuts and honey. It's sad that Forte's "upside" is his rookie stats. It's very likely that he'll never reach those heights again. Why didn't I trade him after his rookie year in my dynasty league?

Let's see, what else jumps out? Justin Forsett's 18th. He gives me that Jamaal Charles feeling. I know that 5.9 yards a carry is probably out of the question. He could catch a ton of passes. Brandon Jacobs is 20th based on 12 projected touchdowns. We are quick to declare the decline of a player. It's like we've never played fantasy football before. If a player has a down year, an up year is likely. My projections have Reggie Bush one spot ahead of Cedric Benson, but in the rankings Benson's a lot higher. I couldn't take Bush. I drafted him ahead of Brian Westbrook in Bush's rookie year. Guess how that worked out.

After having a lovefest for Jonathan Stewart, I projected him to finish one spot behind Donald Brown. Gosh, I hope no one in my league reads this. Hey there Don. It's a good thing that you never pay attention to anything I say or write if it's related to football.

Out of the 76 running backs I ranked, two had no projected touchdowns. Javon Ringer and Tashard Choice. Can you say super sleepers?

Fantasy files: Jets, way cooler in real life than in fantasy

When you look at the New York Jets from 2009, numbers pop out. 607 carries. 12 touchdown passes to 21 interceptions. 19 combined touchdowns given up. We barely remember (ESPN surely doesn't after ranking Rex Ryan one of the top five coaches in any sport) that the team went 9-7 last year and needed a lot of help to make the playoffs.

403 of those carries are gone. Thomas Jones left and the team let Leon Washington go like he was expendable. Who's left? Shonn Greene's the stud in waiting. He's being drafted like he already had a 1500-yard season. He didn't catch any passes last year and takes the kind of hits that make people think that he can't survive 300 carries. He missed part of 2009 due to injury. Who's left to pick up the slack? You have LaDainian Tomlinson, who averaged 3.3 yards a carry last year. Only due to the Chargers giving him a ton of goal-line carries did he have fantasy value. The rookie Joe McKnight rounds out the group and he hasn't earned glowing reviews in training camp.

I figured that the team would pass more and run less, but even then they're going to run the ball at least 500 times. Is this team really going to give a washed-up Tomlinson 200 touches? Can Shonn Green survive 300 carries? At least we don't have to worry about him catching a lot of balls. McKnight might be Washington lite.

As for the team's passing game, do not consider it fantasy ready. I might draft Mark Sanchez as a QB3 and hope that he stays on clipboard duty for my fantasy team. He should improve in his second year. I'm steering clear of their entire receiver corps. Few pass attempts means that if there were a WR1 on this team, he wouldn't be worth a roster spot. Santonio Holmes might be the top guy but he's missing the first four games, critical for him to establish some rapport with Sanchez. Braylon Edwards seems decades removed from his #3 finish in 2007. Jerricho Cotchery was a decent bye week fill in last year, but he might be the slot guy this year. Dustin Keller has promise but there are a lot of other targets. He probably won't catch more than 60 balls this year.

The defense/special teams is overvalued as the top ranked crew just because the top ranked D/ST in preseason never finishes number one. The defense will be very good. I'm not reaching for it.

Fantasy files: All non-LeBron all the time

Today I covered four more teams. In Detroit I expect Matthew Stafford to lead the league in interceptions and I expect Calvin Johnson to prevent that number from getting higher. I think Jahvid Best will run wild but his NFL candle's going to burn briefly, so it better burn hot. Perhaps he'll let Lion fans forget about Kevin Jones and Kevin Smith.

Detroit hopes to have their version of Dallas's Triplets. After Detroit I found three teams that could corner the market on offense. I started with the Green Bay Packers. I'm not sure what stiff I drafted two years ago with an opportunity to select Aaron Rodgers, but it would make me a lot less depressed than if I were a Cleveland sports fan. What a punch to the nuts.

Aaron Rodgers was a benchwarmer who became the top fantasy quarterback. He got injured in his fill-in game for Brett Favre two years ago. Since that he's shed the label. Not only is he a great QB, he has nine rushing touchdowns in two years. That's 67 total touchdowns after gathering dust for three seasons. You like him, you really like Greg Jennings, who had a down touchdown year and should be closer to double digits, you really really like Jermichael Finley, and if Donald Driver doesn't cut it for his seventh straight 1,000-yard season and a spot as the all-time Packer yardage leader as a receiver, you have James Jones. Ryan Grant was the most boring top ten running back season ever. See that the difference between being RB22 and RB8 is about six touchdowns. Grant had five scores in 2008 and 11 in 2009. It's hard to predict that, except that a guy with a lot of touches and few touchdowns probably will score more in the following year.

The key player on the Texans is Matt Schaub. In his first two years after leaving Atlanta, he missed ten games. Last year he missed none and led the league in passing yards. If you believe that he's over the injury bug, he's a great pick among the Big Seven quarterbacks. They've put together a nice offense in Houston, even if the run game kind of imploded last year. Andre Johnson could catch 120 balls especially if number two target Owen Daniels is still recovering from his ACL tear suffered midway through last season. Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter can only do so much.

For the moment, I can't recommend going after the Texan run game even though it's due for a bounce back. Steve Slaton might catch a lot of passes but I doubt that Gary Kubiak's going to give him more than 150 carries. That leaves Ben Tate and Arian Foster. Foster's the better buy, and since Kubiak killed my fantasy season by benching Foster in a critical spot, he'll probably be the guy. I can't pull the trigger.

I have a sneaking suspicion that there will be a new RB star in Indianapolis. Peyton Manning's so consistent that he's boring people into drafting him behind Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. What do you want from a guy who hasn't ranked lower than ninth in his career? Yeah he's getting older but he's never hurt and probably will play until he's 40. Reggie Wayne is a bit of a risk from a dynasty/keeper point of view because his contract's up soon and he's on the wrong side of 30. As a redraft guy, he's top five. Dallas Clark caught 100 passes last year. His previous career high was 78. Should he be the top tight end drafted? I hate to be the first of drafting any position except for a RB. Pierre Garcon came on last year and scored a Super Bowl TD, but he's the third banana. Expect inconsistency.

The Colts didn't draft Donald Brown to be a benchwarmer. Joseph Addai has been very good and scores a lot of touchdowns. I say that his role is diminished in the final year of his contract. Brown can do what Addai does, only better. In the Indy offense, a RB isn't ever going to be the focal point. Consider both guys potential RB2s on a weekly basis but nothing that's going to win you a title.

Oh yeah, Anthony Gonzalez will be the rare first-round bust for the Colts. How rare is that?

Fantasy files: Value out West

There's value in them thar hills. I'm talking about Denver. Did you know that Kyle Orton threw for 3,800 yards last year? I know, it's like they passed out 3,000-yard seasons like they were spirit towels in 2009. The only useful fantasy guy as a receiver for the Broncos last year was Brandon Marshall. That means there are 100+ passes going to someone else. Tony Scheffler is gone too. Jabar Gaffney has potential. Eddie Royal, a disaster last year, could surprise. Rookies Demariyus Thomas and Eric Decker could help.

Kyle Orton isn't going to be a value. Sure, if he throws for 3,800 yards and 21 touchdowns again he's a draft-day bargain. Only thing is, you're not going to start him unless it's a bye week. Knowshon Moreno looks like the smart money for the top sophomore back. Think he'll be better than Ryan Matthews, who's going earlier? We know that he's in the AFC West, and playing six games against the AFC West is like playing poker with a bunch of first graders. With my poker "skill", that would be an even money bet at best, sadly.

Fantasy files: Browns and Delhomme, the dream pairing

The projections continue. In the last installment, I discussed the bang-your-head-against the wall awesomeness of the Buffalo Bills. I'll make most of the hard-core NFL fans cry when I bring up Cleveland's awe-inspiring 6-3 victory over the Bills last fall. Until a misleading four-game season-ending Mangini-severance-avoiding win streak, that was the sole victory for the Browns.

A lot of Cleveland fans are feeling less than loved by their sports teams. LeBron James, their greatest gift since Marty Schottenheimer, looks prepared to leave. Are angry townspeople going to storm his mansion/casino if he announces that he's playing for Miami? Have I lost my four readers by the mere mention of the NBA?
The Browns do have one of the most intriguing "weapon" players in Josh Cribbs.
Honestly, the team should have put him in as a wishbone quarterback more often last year because this was a bad year for the forward pass. Cleveland was the only team in the league with more rushing yards than passing yards. And it was the running game, once the corpse formerly known as Jamal Lewis called it a year, that helped the team to that winning streak. Jerome Harrison was fantasy platinum last December. The team smartly drafted another running back to share the load in Montario Hardesty. That pretty much shattered any chances of this team having a decent fantasy player, save the Browns defense when Cribbs returns a kick for a touchdown.

Saying good-bye to Brady Quinn and Derrick Anderson once they sucked all of the value out of then was the only move the team had. Sometimes you have to light that insurance fire. Adding Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace to take their place was quite uninspired. It reminds me of drafting Santana Moss over Randy Moss a couple of years ago. The team added Colt McCoy later. It's not a good year for rookie quarterbacks since, save the curious case of Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford's shoulder, teams passed over the top guys again and again. This rambling paragraph is my way of saying "draft the Titans mascot before you draft any Browns quarterback".
Mohamed Massaquoi was the team's leading receiver with 34. He did average more than 18 yards a catch. Consider him one of the lesser lights of last year's phenomenal rookie WR crop. While he had two 100-yard games, he had less than 50 receiving yards in 13 of his 15 games. There's no one else and he hasn't shown the ability to beat NFL cornerbacks.

Josh Cribbs is an intriguing player if you get return yardage. If you're a Browns fan, you're buying a throwback jersey.

Fantasy files: Igore the Bills?

Let's determine one thing. Would it be smart to just ignore the Buffalo Bills for fantasy purposes in 2010? Here's a team that finished 2009 31st in attempts, 23rd in passing touchdowns, 21st in rushing attempts and 29th in rushing touchdowns. The leading returning receiver caught 44 passes. The leading passer was Ryan Fitzpatrick, who had a paltry nine touchdowns. Fred Jackson, former undrafted free agent, was a revelation this year. Naturally the team drafted another running back in C.J. Spiller as their first-round selection. That could kill Jackson's value.

This has to be the worst collection of QB talent in the league. Trent Edwards gives the team a puncher's chance. The only problem is that Edwards can't take a punch. He's injury prone. I should remember. I had him in a college fantasy league during his senior year of college and he missed most of the season. In three years his top QB finish is 23. Backup Ryan Fitzpatrick might be tougher but he's not talented-er. I know, fake word. Third-stringer Brian Brohm was so good that the Packers released him after his second training camp and kept Matt Flynn instead. Don't get too excited.

Jackson has value because it's hard to tell if C.J. Spiller has every-down back chops. Spiller owes at least half of his rookie signing bonus to Chris Johnson. They're both undersized guys who were dominant in college. Spiller even wore the same number. The problem with Chris Johnson breaking the stereotype of a small running back being able to pound it between the tackles is that he's an outlier, plus he's only done it for two seasons. Jackson didn't have a ton of carries last year, 236, so it's quite possible that he can maintain the 15-carry-a-game pace. I don't know if he'll get 46 receptions again with Spiller as a tempting third-down option. Spiller's the ultimate home-run lottery redraft pick. He'll also make the Bills defense/special teams unit draftable, which is hard to say about anyone else on the team.

Can we finally say that Lee Evans is what he is? Last year was his worst year for receptions and yards. Folks hoped that the T.O. signing would open things up for him. On bad passing teams, you can't depend on a second receiving option for consistent fantasy points. Evans did catch seven touchdown passes. Look at his 2008 results, with 60 plus catches, barely over a thousand yards, and low touchdown results for your 2010 baseline. He could be a value in that you could draft him as a WR4 and get borderline WR2 production. His problem is consistency, so expect a 100-yard performance to be followed by a one-catch game. Yep, that's as good as it gets in Buffalo.

Rookie TE Shawn Nelson caught 17 passes. He's the likely starter. Maybe he doubles that.

Sadly you can't totally ignore any team in the NFL for fantasy purposes. Fred Jackson, last year's supposed fill-in during Marshawn Lynch's suspension, became the man for a team with no other fantasy studs. C.J. Spiller should take away some of those touches. If you draft any of the Bills' quarterbacks or receivers shy of Lee Evans as a WR4, you are throwing away a roster slot.

Ghana'd

A penalty shot is the most dastardly tiebreaker ever devised. There's no equivalent to it in any other sport. You can't call it a field-goal contest in the NFL or even a hockey shootout with a net three times as large. It's 99% mental.

Ghana having an opportunity to make the World Cup semifinals on a penalty shot literally in the final moment of a game in extra time might have been the most stress-filled shot in the history of the sport. Imagine this. You're playing in your home continent. A team from your home continent has never made the semifinals. A penalty kick is almost impossible to miss. The shot is from so close that the goalie has to dive before the player takes the shot. All a player has to do is hesitate and barely punch the ball through the middle. That's why it's so darn brilliant. Players who can do amazing things with their feet suddenly forget how to hit the corner from eight yards out. That's what happened to Ghana. With their tournament on the line, all their guy had to do was kick the ball straight.

He did, but it went high and hit the bar. After that the penalties were a formality. The Uruguayan goalie smothered one penalty, but Ghana and African fans got another moment of torment as the following Uruguayan kick sailed over the bar. There was one more poorly kicked ball by Ghana and the final Uruguayan penalty was correctly called "cheeky" by the announcer as the guy just pooched it down the middle as the goalie dove to the right.

What a hard, hard, hard way to end your run. The U.S. has to feel fortunate to have missed on an opportunity for this kind of historic misery.

Next on Fantasy Files: I'm trying an experiment. I'm going to do projections. I believe that I tried them in a small way last year to round out my pre-draft rankings, but this year I'm doing it for every team. I'm going to project a total for passing and running for each team and project the fantasy draftables. I will not project how the Cardinals tight ends will do, for example. I will try to sort out who will be their number two wideout, though. After going through all 32 teams, I'll see if my projections match the very tentative rankings that I have at the moment.

Fantasy files: Who's the "other" Steve Smith now?

Is Steve Smith now the other Steve Smith?

Last year in a draft I selected Steve Smith of the Giants when I meant to take Steve Smith of the Panthers. The Commish allowed me to change my pick but in the end I should have stuck with my first choice. We all thought that someone would break out of the Giants' wideout roster logjam heading into 2009 but it was hard to tell who would do it. Steve Smith, Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks had fantasy superpowers last year at times but Smith was the best by far.

Here's what makes the Carolina version hard to rate. Carolina Steve in the past five years has finished no lower than WR19. That's good. His WR19 finish was last year. That's bad. He broke his arm on his final play of 2009, but he scored a touchdown on that play. He again broke the arm in the same place during a flag football game. Do you think that real football might be a little tougher than flag football? He should heal by opening day, and already has good rapport with new starting QB Matt Moore. He may drop a round or two from his current ADP of 39. Getting him as your WR2 wouldn't hurt, although a third break is not out of the question.

The "other" Steve Smith was just another wide receiver from USC trying to make the big time. With Plaxico Burress going to the big house, he had an opportunity and took advantage. He finished second in the league with 107 catches. Guys who catch a lot of passes score more consistent in fantasy. It's third-grade math but I'll take what I can get. He did fade a bit, catching four touchdown passes in the first four weeks and three the rest of the year. For a guy who averaged seven catches per game, he only had three 100-yard efforts. There's a lot of buzz around Hakeem Nicks this year. Nicks played all of last year with a broken foot. That's toughness. With another year of working with Eli, Nicks will be better and might outscore Smith fantasy wise. It's also good to consider if the shift from run-heavy to pass-heavy by the Giants was a one year thing. Teams can support two startable wideouts but it's tough when the team's outside the top 20 in pass attempts. With that in mind, New Jersey Steve is priced about right at an ADP of 45. He's one of those low ceiling, low floor fantasy producers.

And the winner is. . . for this year at least. .. Carolina Steve. Thank you. Stay off those mean flag football streets, Steve.