Fantasy files: Igore the Bills?

Let's determine one thing. Would it be smart to just ignore the Buffalo Bills for fantasy purposes in 2010? Here's a team that finished 2009 31st in attempts, 23rd in passing touchdowns, 21st in rushing attempts and 29th in rushing touchdowns. The leading returning receiver caught 44 passes. The leading passer was Ryan Fitzpatrick, who had a paltry nine touchdowns. Fred Jackson, former undrafted free agent, was a revelation this year. Naturally the team drafted another running back in C.J. Spiller as their first-round selection. That could kill Jackson's value.

This has to be the worst collection of QB talent in the league. Trent Edwards gives the team a puncher's chance. The only problem is that Edwards can't take a punch. He's injury prone. I should remember. I had him in a college fantasy league during his senior year of college and he missed most of the season. In three years his top QB finish is 23. Backup Ryan Fitzpatrick might be tougher but he's not talented-er. I know, fake word. Third-stringer Brian Brohm was so good that the Packers released him after his second training camp and kept Matt Flynn instead. Don't get too excited.

Jackson has value because it's hard to tell if C.J. Spiller has every-down back chops. Spiller owes at least half of his rookie signing bonus to Chris Johnson. They're both undersized guys who were dominant in college. Spiller even wore the same number. The problem with Chris Johnson breaking the stereotype of a small running back being able to pound it between the tackles is that he's an outlier, plus he's only done it for two seasons. Jackson didn't have a ton of carries last year, 236, so it's quite possible that he can maintain the 15-carry-a-game pace. I don't know if he'll get 46 receptions again with Spiller as a tempting third-down option. Spiller's the ultimate home-run lottery redraft pick. He'll also make the Bills defense/special teams unit draftable, which is hard to say about anyone else on the team.

Can we finally say that Lee Evans is what he is? Last year was his worst year for receptions and yards. Folks hoped that the T.O. signing would open things up for him. On bad passing teams, you can't depend on a second receiving option for consistent fantasy points. Evans did catch seven touchdown passes. Look at his 2008 results, with 60 plus catches, barely over a thousand yards, and low touchdown results for your 2010 baseline. He could be a value in that you could draft him as a WR4 and get borderline WR2 production. His problem is consistency, so expect a 100-yard performance to be followed by a one-catch game. Yep, that's as good as it gets in Buffalo.

Rookie TE Shawn Nelson caught 17 passes. He's the likely starter. Maybe he doubles that.

Sadly you can't totally ignore any team in the NFL for fantasy purposes. Fred Jackson, last year's supposed fill-in during Marshawn Lynch's suspension, became the man for a team with no other fantasy studs. C.J. Spiller should take away some of those touches. If you draft any of the Bills' quarterbacks or receivers shy of Lee Evans as a WR4, you are throwing away a roster slot.