Roster cut-down

It's almost time for the toughest cuts of all. I'm not talking about the NFL, where teams have to go from 83 players to 53 in a couple of weeks. Players will go from a possible six-figure job to no job at all. Practice squad spots will be more hotly contested than ever.

I'm talking about roster cut-down time in the zealots leagues. We have to do it a few days after the last preseason game. Going from 60 players to 53 shouldn't be so difficult. What makes the issue tough is the preponderance of RBBC.

A couple of weeks ago, you wouldn't want anything to do with Mike Bell. I picked him up during his rookie year with the Broncos and had a few weeks of decent production. Two years later he was cut by Denver and most people thought his NFL career was over. After a brief stop in Houston, he's with the Saints. Injuries to Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas have given Bell an opportunity. Now he's not just the third RB. He might get significant carries and play an Aaron Stecker-like role.

It's the same on a lot of teams. Javon Ringer could get some significant touches for the Titans. Mewelde Moore was an RB2 for a few weeks last year with the Steelers and looks to be their third-down back at least. Danny Ware's getting a lot of touches for the Giants. With Jonathan Stewart's balky Achilles, expect Mike Goodson to be on the field a lot for the Panthers. Brandon Jackson just got hurt for the Packers, so DeShawn Wynn or Kregg Lumpkin could be valuable. In the end, more than 100 running backs have potential value. It makes me think twice about cutting Lorenzo Booker, or even Ryan Torain, who isn't even on a roster.

Such roster quandaries make me long for the simplicity of my local keeper league. With a roster maximum of four running backs and four wide receivers, the waiver wire will be loaded. It's not a bad thought to tank opening weekend just to get that juicy top waiver slot. I drafted Brandon Marshall in the second round. Now that roster spot may be worthless. I picked up Eddie Royal with my next pick, but if Marshall is out, will Royal be as productive with the likes of Jabar Gaffney or Brandon Stokley starting on the opposite side? Suddenly my embarrassment of riches has become a potential embarrassment.

Smaller rosters seem better because your options for replacement players are potentially vast. Larger rosters are good if you can pay attention to the up-and-comers before anyone else. My league laughed at me for trading away Kirk Morrison. Morrison got hurt and now Ricky Brown, who I picked up yesterday, is the starter at MLB for the Raiders. There is no letting up with an ongoing auction setting for free agents. Once rosters get cut down, at least we get a break in that waivers are orderly and start at the same time each week.

Making sense of the NFL preseason

You can get useful information on preseason stats if you know how to look at it. Just looking at the numbers is generally a waste of time. What stood out to me this week:

The 49ers had 47 rushing attempts against the Raiders last week. They averaged 5.9 yards an attempt. Three backs had at least ten attempts. While Glen Coffee has been the bell cow, I think this means good things for Frank Gore. This also means that if Gore goes down, Coffee will be a popular waiver wire pick.

6th round pick James Davis of the Browns had an 81-yard touchdown run. If you're a sixth round pick who's going to make an NFL team, you should be the best player on the field in the third quarter of a preseason game. I'd still pay attention to him in dynasty leagues.

I just saw his TD run. It was a draw play on 3rd and 12. Davis made one good cut and was gone. He's definitely talented.

I just don't trust the late-round rookie running backs. It's being in the Zealots league that does it for me. When you draft fifth-round players in the second round of your rookie draft (like I did with Ryan Torain last year), your chances of success are very low. Since running backs dropped in the draft, sixth and seventh round guys were going earlier than usual. I didn't see the value. Wait a sec, was that me who drafted Cedric Peerman (sixth rounder) in the third round of a rookie draft, considering it a steal? OK, so I fall for the hype as well as the next guy.

My fantasy baseball team's making a miraculous comeback. Does it mean as much since half of my league seems to have given up? I don't think so. Three straight big wins moved me from 10th to 5th place. I do not expect to have a long playoff stay.

I think it would be fun to see celebration reaction shots from every stadium in the NFL. When you see fans wearing player jerseys, are they current players? I watched Lex Hilliard's touchdown run and I could only see a guy wearing a Marino jersey. I also saw a Fielder jersey and only one Pennington jersey. This team needs new heroes. If you look at a Titans reaction shot you'd see a lot of Vince Young, and maybe some Air McNairs this year.

Just when you thought it was safe to ignore preseason football...

Yes, preseason football is boring. It is longer than the "director's cut" of a Quentin Tarantino movie. It tells us as much about our teams as that guy who wore the freaky glasses at the World Series of Poker a few years ago.

And there's Brandon Marshall. I'm so glad I drafted him in two leagues. It's always good to have a guy on your team who doesn't know the playbook and apparently doesn't care to do so. By the way, Marshall, if you get traded, you'll just have to learn another team's playbook.

Then there's a moment like I just witnessed on the NFL Network. Tyrell Sutton looked solid in Northwestern's loss to Missouri in the Alamo Bowl last year. He's doing well as an undrafted free agent in Green Bay's camp. While it's doubtful that he will make the roster, he did score a touchdown late in the game and got to do the Lambeau Leap. Due to the crappy economic situation, the difference between making a practice-squad slot and nothing is bigger than usual.

Speaking of undrafted free agents doing well, how about Chase Daniel? He went 6/8 for 58 yards and two touchdowns to lead the Redskins to a victory over the Steelers. His touchdowns were the first two of the preseason for the Skins.

It's funny how Daniel has been derided as an NFL prospect, while his departure from Missouri's offense has led to Missouri getting a pathetic 3 votes in the preseason AP poll. OK, Missouri's defense was horrible this year, and they lost two starters who were NFL draft picks. There's a new quarterback in town, and the top wide receiver is out. I could see why voters were not impressed. But Central Michigan gets more votes? Nebraska's replacing their quarterback and beat a pretty pathetic Clemson team in last year's Gator Bowl. Missouri beat the holy hand grenade hell out of them. Nebraska's ranked. So is Kansas. Missouri is an afterthought. I know that consecutive Big 12 championship blowouts are the public face of Missouri. Still, can we get a little carryover respect? That's why I think our coach is still overpaid. The school has to be considered a perennial top 25 program before you get paid like an elite coach.

And finally, yes, I'm a little concerned about the Titans' run offense, or lack thereof. Dave Stewart, come back to us. We need you. Kevin Mawae, ditto. Is depending on a 38-year-old center a good thing?

Fantasy draft flu

I got it in a big way. When a 35-year-old drinks like a 22-year-old for three out of four days, it's not surprising when the system fails to boot on Monday. Even with sleeping most of Sunday off I still felt crappy on Monday and could barely get around on Tuesday. I resolve to forget all about this feeling by the time the draft rolls around next year.

Quick notes on Titans/Bucs:

I'm not enjoying the lack of a running game by the starting lineup. I'm not totally concerned but Collins has not looked sharp yet.

Vince was good. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that he's one of the best 32 QBs in the league.

Touchdowns by Kenny Britt, Javon Ringer, and Ryan Mouton showed that the rookie class can contribute if necessary. I expect that Jared Cook will get a TD by the end of the preseason.

Josh Johnson is a much more "ready" version of Josh Freeman. If it weren't for the drafting of Freeman, Johnson might be in line to start. Any guy who runs it in from 43 yards out is a top-notch athlete.

The d-line looks solid. We'll have to see how the rotation looks in the regular season. Has Jason Jones played yet? I don't think I saw him in the lineup.

Fantasy notes that only affect me:

Andre Brown's injury is helping a lot of my teams. I have Danny Ware in a ton of leagues. Ahmad Bradshaw's impressive Monday Night performance nonwithstanding, I think Ware's going to make an impact this year.

Chaz Schillens' injury has made Zach Miller even more of a potential breakout star this year.

With all of the RBBC situations in the league, it's even harder to decide on who to release in dynasty leagues. After I let Mewelde Moore go last year, I might have to keep all 17 RBs I have in z34. That includes Ryan Torain.

My Zealots 17 team started in 2004. I could start 2009 with 14 of the original players I drafted.

Draft-day diary

A fantasy football that started as a group of guys who didn't know what they were doing has morphed into a four-day weekend event. The high point of the weekend is the Saturday morning draft.

After getting home the previous evening at one in the morning, my dad knocked on the door at 8:30. I got up at 7:30, a little tired but not hung over, miraculously, and finished my draft list. I also finished downloading teams' "introduction music" into my iPod.

We arrived at my friend's basement, where we have held the draft since the second year of the league. He only lets the female members of the league use the upstairs bathroom. Considering our behavior, we should feel lucky to be allowed in the house at all. The Commish has the league board up and is putting people's keepers at the bottom. Each player is represented by a sticker. No, the technology has not improved from that point.

While the draft is supposed to start at 9, we don't get going until around 9:45. It will be a theme for the day. I can't get my iPod to work with my friend's stereo system or computer, so there will be no introduction music. LT goes off the board. It's my pick.

I know it's going to be a reach, but I have to have the courage of my convictions. I take Kevin Smith. A minute later, I take a shot of rot-gut whiskey. It's one of five types of alcohol I'll consume today.

Before Brandon Marshall's acquittal on "simple battery" charges, I considered Eddie Royal to be the second best wideout. I hoped that he would be there at my 2.11 pick. To my surprise, only three wideouts go before my second pick. I take Marshall. Remembering my mock draft experience, I take Donovan McNabb as my backup QB in the third round. Even though running backs are going like hotcakes, I know that the position's deep enough for me to wait.

During the long break between picks, my fellow owners have different reactions to the draft experience. Some pour over their papers like there is nothing more important in the world. Others talk and joke. The rest drink.

If I drank all of the two dozen penalty shots offered to me by our penalty shot czar, I would be dead. I brought a vodka bottle that contained a little vodka and a lot of water. That saved me. When my fourth pick came up, Royal was still on the board. I took him, ignoring Kyle Orton's disastrous preseason performance. I'll take two receivers who might combine for 190 catches this year. I might be depending on Captain Checkdown, one of the nicer nicknames for Orton.

I take Cedric Benson as my third running back. With Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, and Benson I now have three running backs with little competition and some of the worst O-lines in the league.

Zach Miller and John Carlson are my tight ends. Jerricho Cotchery (another 80-catch guy) is my fourth WR. Ahmad Bradshaw is my shot-in-the-dark RB4. Marc Bulger is my "please let me never start him" QB3. I have defenses and kickers but I can't recall who they are. Our penalty shot czar got drunk enough that he thought drafting Brett Lorenzo Favre was a good idea. It was good comedy at least.

After nearly four hours, we were done. I went home, napped, and prepared for the evening's gathering, featuring the families of everyone in the league who wasn't too hung over. It was nice. Tomorrow morning we'll play our annual flag-football game, aka the Hangover Bowl, and that will be that. I'll go to work and remember that it's only 360 days until we do it again.

Football and Futbol

I'm watching the second half of U.S./Mexico while contemplating my upcoming keeper draft. There is no sport as alternatingly boring and exciting as soccer. They key to soccer is you know how long the game's going to be. You get 45-minute halfs with no commercial breaks.

The U.S. has never won in Mexico. In fact they scored one goal in 25 years until the first half of this contest. Before I could find a feed online (in Spanish, no less), Mexico had tied the contest. So far from what I've watched, the U.S. seems to be in bunker mentality. They're trying to get out with a tie. Mexico's controlling the ball.

Can you imagine going to a football game with the crowd blowing horns that sound like my nephew playing the recorder (think loud and shrill) for two hours straight? That's just nuts. I don't know how many people are at this game but it's well north of 100K.

My thought on my draft is whether I can get value out of trading down from the two slot. I see about eight guys who are similarly valued, after which I'd have to go for the top wideout. I initially thought of this idea because I could trade down in the first, trade up in the second and get a better wide receiver and the same RB as I would have taken at 1.02.

A Mexico guy trapped the ball in the box, had time to blow dry his hair and still missed the wide open shot. Tim Howard is a beast. I'd like to see a little offensive time for the U.S. besides in a counter attack. When I saw the U.S. make a push in the first half, it seemed like Mexico had 15 players.

All soccer players are like wideouts in our football. They can play off the refs by pretending to get hacked when they were barely touched. It doesn't always work.

Back to the trade concept. I'd trade my high first and low second for a low first and high second, along with switching picks in the fourth round. But, as I look at my values versus the "expert" rankings, I think that my best move would be to hold still. I'll have an easy decision at 1.02 but a tough one at 2.11 and 3.02. The question would be whether I go WR/RB or WR/QB. Philip Rivers is nice but unlikely to duplicate his 2008 high TD total.

When I did a mock draft last night, I did WR/QB. I figured that with my 3.02 pick I could take Carson Palmer or Willie Parker. Palmer seemed like the better value. He seems like a great buy low QB this year. With my fourth round pick I would have gotten Eli Manning (as unexciting as QBs get) or LenDale White. White's not quite a strict goal line back. He can score two touchdowns or have three carries for two yards. He'll either fade out or have a higher role whether due to a Chris Johnson injury or some other unforeseen issue.

One thing I know for sure is to not focus on the guys outside the first five picks. I know who everyone is and will have a decent list. There are going to be up to a dozen waiver wire guys who outperform fifth rounders. With small rosters, you can't afford to pick up a guy who "might" come in later, like a Michael Bush.

Number nine for the U.S. just made a full out dive, missing the ball by an inch. That could have been the game winner. An offside call negated a sure goal. It's tense for sure. I think Mexico needs to win while the U.S. will be OK with a draw. I can't look at the current World Cup standings because I'm watching the game on TiVo.

Ugh. Direct kick for Mexico right outside the box. Twenty minutes to go. I like how two guys stand out so the goalie doesn't know which way the shot's coming. Mexico misses. A U.S. player is injured, and when a Mexico guy stops to say hi, a fight breaks out. I'd say that the crowd goes wild but they can't get any louder.

Tim Howard makes another save. He's wicked good.

I hear Vince Young's willing to take a pay cut in 2010. Anything other than the veteran minimum might be too rich.

Has there been a big fistfight in a soccer game like a baseball brawl? I think it may happen in this one.

And Mexico scores. Dude. I guess it just seems like they have more players. At least we beat them in the World Cup. With less than ten minutes left, it's going to be tough sledding.

Now every player on the team is going to fake an injury for the next ten minutes. This is not cool.

They showed the standings. U.S. is only one point ahead of Mexico. So this game is huge. Still, the team that's winning is on the offensive.

They just can't control the ball. They make a few passes then lose possession. Corner kick time. Three, maybe four minutes to go. Fans are throwing crap at Donovan.

It's over, folks. The U.S. officially can't hold a lead. Lame.

Titan Thoughts

Here are my thoughts on the first NFL game of the year.

It’s preseason, people. Don’t get carried away.

If you could bet on things like “A.J. Trapasso will be the leading rusher,” what would the odds have been? One billion to one? Plays like this have to make coaches around the league think about having an ‘athletic’ punter on the squad. Then again, the reason why the entire right side of Buffalo’s punt coverage team paid no attention to Trapasso is that he is an unathletic punter. Later in the game, without a hint of irony, we saw the special teams coach of the Bills, called one of the best in the business.

The Titans couldn’t run. It was like watching the Bears game again. Collins made a few nice throws. Washington looks fast. Crumpler was not, but he made a few catches. Note that on one catch he cradled the ball with both arms and I said too loudly “that would have come in handy last January!” The wounds take time to heal.
And then there was Vince. I said that I was looking forward to his first interception and I wasn’t disappointed. He had trouble with his headset, got a call from Heimerdinger and threw a pass to a receiver who wasn’t there. The TE got held up at the line and might not have made the play had he been unblocked. Later, thanks to a fumbled punt, Young got another chance and threw a nice touch pass to Paul Williams in the back of the end zone. It’s probably the last good play we’ll see from Williams, and perhaps Young as well.

Why again did the Titans sign Alex Mortensen as their camp QB when there are at least a dozen more qualified guys? I don’t think he even started at Samford last year.

Ramsey’s nothing special. He’s just not. Thoughts of Chris Davis as the slot receiver are not comforting either.

I really wanted to see Jared Cook and he didn’t disappoint.

Chris Henry got in the game before Ringer, which was interesting. Henry’s not terrible but it’s unlikely that he’s going to make the team.

Tony Dungy entered the booth later in the game. Is every former NFL coach now on the Sunday Night NBC payroll? They already have at least 12 people there. If Vick gets an NFL job this fall, he will owe a lot to Dungy.

I have one small nit about the Dungy conversation. When they brought up Jim Caldwell, Michaels mentioned how he was smart and well-spoken. Isn’t well spoken something you say about the neighbor’s kid who’s about to enter the fifth grade? While Caldwell has been with the Colts for seven years, he hasn’t been a head coach. Everyone giving the AFC South to the Colts isn’t thinking things through.

If I made the Hall of Fame (a stretch, I know), I’d hate to get my bust done right after a really bad hair cut. At least the baseball guys get a cap to cover things up.

Did I learn anything?

I’m concerned about the depth in the offensive line and the secondary. Nothing changed on that front due to the game, although the rookie corners made a few plays.

Is Chris Davis an NFL-caliber slot receiver?

Javon Ringer looks like a good backup for Chris Johnson. If Chris Henry is cut, someone else will pick him up.

Those throwbacks are really nice. I have never been a fan of the Titans’ look. Sure, the oil derrick doesn’t make sense but it’s classic. I will have to use all of my willpower to not overpay for a replica jersey.

A.J. Trapasso hopefully kept the ball from his touchdown run. It’s a good memory even if he never makes an NFL club.

The National Football League, for your consideration

I finally have more tweets than I have blogs. Follow me at zach_law. I do not post enough to be "cool". Seriously, keeping track of NFL training camps has been all about Twitter so far. It's been so thorough (and sometimes overwhelming) that today's multi-hour Twitter outage was a major blow to my psyche.

NFL thoughts:

Isn't it something that both Matt Leinart and Vince Young are battling to be the backups for the franchises that they were supposed to leave? Leinart has the Heisman but Young still has the Q rating. He's still getting magazine articles and ESPN segments. After all, he did win the all-important head to head meeting. When the Cardinals come to Nashville this fall, watch the sidelines and see who's more engaged. I think it will be a draw.

Training camp injuries are the worst. The Falcons are going to seriously miss Harry Douglas. At the onset of camp he was going to be the punt returner and slot guy. With Roddy White's holdout and Mike Jenkins being Mike Jenkins (did they really pay him $5 million a year to block?), Douglas was lining up as a starter. I feel bad for Dicky Lyons, the former Kentucky wideout who was signed the day after Douglas's injury and waived the following day. Marty Booker and Robert Ferguson (admit it, you've owned one of them once or twice) have been signed.

The Eagles already had a major blow when beloved defensive coordinator Jim Johnson lost his battle with cancer recently. Brian Dawkins, the leader on the field, signed with the Broncos. The new leader was going to be MLB Stewart Bradley, who promptly injured his knee. Now it's up to a sixth-round pick from 2008 to take the position. The Eagles D may miss a play or two, but they're still a good fantasy option.

Panthers' defensive tackle Maake Kemoeatu (big Samoan guy, perhaps?) tore an Achilles tendon. From what I hear, there's not good depth in Carolina.

The Titans would be devastated if they lost either of their starting offensive tackles and anyone in their secondary. And a lot of fans might be devastated if Kerry Collins gets hurt. I can only hope that Mr. Young is training like Collins did last year, as if he were the starter. It's the only way to go if you're number two, because being number one can be only a non-contact injury away.

I reviewed a few more possible first-round picks in my upcoming redraft. Kevin Smith was the LeSean McCoy of last year's draft. He put up insane stats at Central Florida in his junior year and seemed poised to return to school. He came out and was underwhelming at the combine and in his pro day. As luck would have it, the Lions took him in the third round. Other than Matt Forte, no rookie had less competition for the starting job. Smith didn't hit his stride until the second half of the year.

Now, it's always tough to draft a running back on a team that either has a bad offensive line or is likely to be trailing early and often. The Lions are both. Smith had 20 carries six of the last eight games in 2008. If Stafford plays early, he's going to be checking down. In fact, a recent training camp article out of Detroit pointed out that the only passes that Lions QBs seemed to be able to complete were screens. Color me intrigued, but somewhat wary since the last Detroit
rookie running back to have a sparkling second half was Kevin Jones.

When the Texans passed on Reggie Bush in the 2006 draft, the sports world gasped. Three years later, when a running back is compared to Bush, it isn't for tough inside running. It's for being a receiver and maybe an off-tackle runner. Bush and Pierre Thomas have almost identical draft value at the moment. Thomas seems like the safe money because he's the goal line back. The only potential downside is that when both Bush and Thomas played last year, both guys got ten touches only once. Thomas could be a Marion Barber with a little less name recognition, while Bush is the brand-name Darren McFadden.

I have a lot of players to review, and only nine days until the draft. I really want to know the players in the first few rounds, because in the past few years the waiver wire has been more and more valuable. Since my teams start and finish horribly, I get the high waiver slot. It's almost like you should play for it.

The Ballad of Anquan Boldin

I don't need a long soliloquy on Anquan Boldin. If you're in a league with me, he's rubbish, absolute rubbish. Run away. Go not pass Go. Just get far, far away before your soul is consumed.

Obviously he's a stud. He had his face flattened in the Jet game, and three weeks later caught two touchdown passes. Here's the stat to make you pause. Boldin outscored Larry Fitzgerald in 8 of his 12 games last year. He caught 89 passes in those 12 games. That rounds out to about 120 passes for a year. That's a lot. I just need to put my head down and keep walking, since I can't have Boldin. He's going to the first chap who drafts a WR in our league. The owner who had him last year kept Reggie Wayne, and it's hard to argue against the apple of Peyton Manning's eye.

It's LT who's keeping me up nights. I have the second pick, and I think that LT will be there. If I take him he'll be the 14th RB off the board. That feels like value. People thought that he slowed down last year and they were right. If being the seventh rated RB is wearing down, I'll take it.

He's on a downward trend. Three years ago he set the single-season TD mark with 31. He had 2300 total yards and 50+ catches. His touches and TDs have declined from 404 and 31 to 370 and 18 to 344 and 12. Does that mean we're looking at 300 and 9 this year? Even at that rate of depreciation, he's still a good pick as my RB2.

In my league scoring he had three single-digit games in the first half of the year. In the second, he had none. He was consistent. His workload was 150 carries and 23 catches. Can you be more consistent than 171 touches in the first half and 173 in the second?

If I want to be scared, I look at the tale of Shaun Alexander. On top of the world when he was 28, Alexander was all but finished the following year. He didn't fall off the cliff; he was dropped off the Empire State Building. Or he could be Curtis Martin, who had a mediocre year when he was 29, and then ran for more than 3000 yards the following two years.

Did the Chargers give Darren Sproles franchise tag money just to return kicks and get five touches a game? Look at last year's first Denver game as the high end of what to expect. In that one-point thriller best known for Ed Hochuli's blown call, Sproles had seven carries for 53 yards and two catches for 72 yards and a touchdown. That's an 18-point game. Will he be more of an offensive force? He had 75 kick-return touches and 90 from scrimmage. In those touches he scored seven touchdowns. If he could approach Leon Washington's 123 scrimmage touches, he'd be a flex in fantasy. Naturally he's more valuable in leagues that include return yardage and touchdowns.

I see LT as a value where I can get him. In a one-year no-keeper situation he's perfect. I can't see picking up Sproles as insurance. I took Ray Rice as Willis McGahee insurance last year instead of picking up an upside guy like Steve Slaton or Pierre Thomas.

Another factor is that I already have Philip Rivers. The upside is that the Chargers were first in the NFL in touchdown passes last year, and the year before were second in rushing touchdowns. LT's the goal line back. And in the somewhat rare occurences where Rivers throws a TD pass to LT, I score double. Finally, LT has seven career touchdown passes. I'll need a strong QB2 and RB3 for the bye week and in the likely chance that the Chargers sew up the AFC West early (say in mid-November). The offense is very good and the defense shouldn't be nearly as horrible.

Player investigation: Jonathan Stewart

I am about to fully focus on my upcoming live draft. This will be our first "unkeeper" year. The last time we decided to go full redraft, we did it a year early, so none of us have drafted knowing that every player on our roster will go into the pool next year.

My trio is pretty good. I have Philip Rivers, Matt Forte, and Andre Johnson. I also have the number two pick. Over the next two weeks I have to decide who to take.

One theory I've been pursuing is to trade down. I think the difference between the second and 10th running back (difference from picking number 2 and number 12) is less than the drop from the 1st WR to the 11th. A couple of QBs usually go in the second round, and a RB or two as well, so I'm probably going to get the 6th to 8th WR on the board. I'm not liking who might be available.

If I stay at pick number two, I'm going to get Brandon Jacobs or LT. LT looks good but I'm afraid of his late tendency of fading as we get to December. With Jacobs, he usually misses a few games and it's possible that the Giants will be good enough to rest their starters at the end of the year.

I'm looking at Jonathan Stewart today. He's the kind of back likely to be there at the end of the first round. Do I want him as my RB2?

Stewart came out of Oregon as the consensus number two rookie running back. He was last year's Michael Crabtree, a heralded college performer coming off an injury. Stewart missed some time during his three years at Oregon. When he played, he was a big, fast back, the number one prospect heading into his freshman year of college.

In most of not all fantasy drafts, Stewart was taken ahead of DeAngelo Williams. Williams was coming into his third year and had not been able to wrest the starting job from DeShaun Foster. Remember when Foster was the RB of the future in Carolina? Williams became a fantasy supernova last year and Stewart wasn't quite as good. Let's look at last year's numbers.

Ten touchdowns from a rookie running back is pretty good. He also had nine games of 15 carries or more. The 4.5 average on 184 carries was very nice. It was the consistency that kept him from being a good RB2. Seven double-digit games are not enough. He caught eight passes all year, and that number isn't going to go up very much. I expect rookie Mike Goodson to play some third down, as well as Williams.

The death blow are the five games in which he scored a maximum of two fantasy points. If the Panthers get behind, they're not going to have the carries for Williams and Stewart. Carolina, led by Jake Delhomme, attempted the fewest passes in the league last year. It's hard to imagine that number going down.

It is possible that Stewart and Williams come closer to a 50/50 split, and Williams has missed some time due to injury. Either back would be a top five fantasy guy if an injury befell the other.

It looks pretty certain that Stewart is going to be drafted as a RB2 in our league. in the five zealot masters drafts he was the 22nd, 24th (3x), and 26th running back taken. I would say that if he doesn't go in the first round he'll be one of the few backs taken in the second. If I trade down to the tenth pick, say, I might be able to go with the top WR in the first and get him in the second. I'd have to get a heckuva wideout to do that. I'll look into who those guys might be in the next installment.