Uncomfortable

While I can be an attention-seeker on karaoke night or when I made the unfortunate decision to read a story about all of my near-death experiences during a work function, I tend to shy away from the spotlight. That's why my job-free existence is difficult. Sending resumes and completing interviews are big time "me, me, me" moments. I must overcome.

Missouri isn't just a favorite in tomorrow's season opener against Illinois. They are a prohibitive favorite. I hate it when Missouri is a prohibitive favorite. I'm not used to it. Until last year, when Missouri was a favorite, they tended to blow every other opportunity. Gary Pinkel regularly won 8 games with 10-win talent. Now Missouri has 11-win talent.

Here are my concerns:

Most national title contenders have a veteran offensive line. Missouri is starting a redshirt freshman left tackle.

The top two returning running backs had 103 combined carries last year. I think Derrick Washington will be the bell cow this year. It's doubtful that he will exceed 200 carries. It's not that kind of offense.

The WR depth is not too solid. Jeremy Maclin's the only starter without concerns. Chase Coffman broke a pinky finger a couple of weeks ago. Danario Alexander had knee surgery recently. Veterans Tommy Saunders and Jared Perry will have to step up. You may see a freshman like Jerrell Jackson, Andrew Jones, or Wes Kemp making some plays.

And for "fair and balanced" purposes, let's talk about my non-concerns:

Chase Daniel is the best QB in Missouri history. I thought Brad Smith was the best QB Missouri would ever have, or deserve. All Daniel lacks is height, and that's not an issue in college.

The defense will be more than good enough. Ten returning starters from the Cotton Bowl are plenty. Did you see how the Tigers bottled up Felix Jones and Darren McFadden, two backs who are going to be very good in the NFL? Illinois has a new starting RB and a running QB who makes every Illini fan nervous when he throws.

Illinois plays in the Big 10. While the conference isn't full of big plodding RBs like it used to be, it's still the conference that can't count.

What is difficult about college football is that the first game is for real. Despite efforts to soak the game-attending fans, college still hasn't sunk to charging fans full price for meaningless preseason games like the NFL. All fans get are local newspaper accounts of practice. Things can change when it's for real. An early turnover would be huge for either team.

After last night's college openers, I can see that Mike Price isn't the miracle worker anymore at UTEP, North Carolina State has to wonder why they gave all that cash to Tom O'Brien, and the leading player in QB rating and rushing yards are from the University of Buffalo. Missouri plays the University of Buffalo this year.

I love it how the ESPN U athletic apparel page has the tag line "Never graduate." Just like Missouri basketball players.

50/50

The Titans announced that Chris Johnson and LenDale White will split carries 50/50 during the upcoming season. As we all know, this doesn't mean that they will alternate plays like Dan Reeves did with quarterbacks a long time ago. This does mean that Chris Johnson's fantasy value just jumped. Is it time to pick him up? I'm in one dynasty league where I have White and Chris Henry, but drafted too far down to get Johnson this year. I know if I make an offer that I'm going to have to overpay.

Purely as a football move, this is smart. Teams will have to prepare for the plodding LenDale White and the world-class speed of Johnson. Another good point is that Johnson actually can catch.

The closest comparison would be the Jaguars with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. MJD gets the goal-line carries, and I don't expect Johnson to get most of them. Then again, MJD catches about 40 balls again, and Johnson could double that. Taylor still has breakaway speed, and even with a healed knee, I don't see White running away from defensive backs, let alone linebackers.

On the Titans Central forums, there's a debate about whether the Titans are hiding their real offensive tendencies to unleash on the league in week one. Most fans still think that poor performance in the preseason is a bad sign. One fan with the handle of Bongo59, who's with the team in some kind of vague medical position, insists that there's nothing to worry about and to "get your popcorn ready". We have ten days to wait and see who's right.

The Turk hits home

Four players released by the Titans this week were named Barry Booker, Brandon Torrey, Chris Davis, and Jorge Cordova. Even hard-core fans barely sniffed at the cuts leading to the Week Four of preseason 75-man roster. Each one of those players had to think that they might make the final cut. At the same time, they had to know that the end was coming soon.

I met my personal Turk this Monday when I was let go by my company. The signs were present. It wasn't a matter of talent as much as it was a numbers game. People had to go and my name was on the list. So far I haven't been able to process the feelings too well. I'm angry, but at the same time grateful in a way to get out of the inevitable downward spiral. I don't yet know what my next move will be. I doubt those four guys feel much differently.

Titans/Falcons aftermath

I'm still watching the replay of the Titans/Falcons game. Color me underimpressed. Let's go with some snap judgments.

I'm going to pretend that the Titans are playing it close to the vest. Not only are they saving all of their "good" plays for the regular season, the receivers are pretending to not be able to catch.

Vince Young: He's never going to be a 70% passer. Here's something that people are forgetting this offseason. Young has his third different offensive coordinator in four years. Norm Chow basically told him to check down. Mike Heimerdinger is a downfield passer kind of guy. In short, Young may not get the hang of this offense until later in the season. Even so, he's going to one-hop every fourth throw and hitting a moving target is not his strength.

Chris Johnson: On the initial third-down play, Johnson sat down five yards downfield (good idea when Young's throwing). He caught the ball and somehow ran between three defenders. He is fast and will fight for the extra yard. Make no mistake, LenDale White will lead the team in rushing carries and yards. Johnson may get more touchdowns.

Alge Crumpler: He'll be featured a lot more when the regular season starts.

Kyle Vanden Bosch: He's the best free agent signing in Titan history. Heck, he almost makes up for the cavalcade of horrible wideout draft picks and signings.

Rob Bironas: What's up? Jon Vaughan hit a 50-yard field goal, so you have to wonder what's up with Bironas's groin.

Wideouts as a whole: There are zero playmakers. The Titans have to start scouting receivers who can catch "bad" balls. Good luck with that.

The defense had a solid game, only giving up a TD after the first-teamers left for good. The team did make Adam Jennings, a mediocre punt returner, look really good. I wish the Titans had a mediocre punt returner. Chris Johnson showed Chris Henry instincts on his returns. That means he showed nothing and almost always got taken down by the first guy. He's not like that when he's playing offense.

Sadly, Matt Ryan looked like a more natural passer in his first preseason than Vince Young does in his fourth. Young's sidearm motion usually does the job but he's susceptible to balls getting knocked down at the line. On the first play of the game a linebacker came in unblocked. Young avoided him and threw an incomplete pass.

I can see why a lot of prognosticators think that the Titans will finish fourth in the AFC South. There wasn't much of a push against a poor defense. Receivers couldn’t get separation against a second-year corner and an undrafted rookie. The running game was uninspiring. It sure seems like a long time until the opener against the Jaguars.

The pain and the sorrow of preseason

Now it's official. All of my AUFL keepers are hurt. Derek Anderson has a concussion and Brady Quinn is looking competent. Willis McGahee had knee surgery and Ray Rice looked great against the Ravens. At least I drafted Rice. Andre Johnson hasn't played yet, but considering his injury history, that might not be a bad thing.

At least I have decent backup options. Brett Favre is heartburn waiting to happen. Jamal Lewis and Matt Forte should hold the fort down until I figure out who's the man between McGahee and Rice. I briefly thought about floating a McGahee/Rice for Thomas Jones trade offer before common sense and watching Ray Rice run changed my mind. At wideout I picked up Santonio Holmes, Roddy White, and Donald Driver. I can survive a week or two without Johnson if that's what happens.

In the hating Mike Shanahan moment of the week, one of my fellow dynasty owners picked up Anthony Alridge. It's the ultimate "how many guys do you have to pick up to lock up a RB situation" move. At the moment I have Selvin Young, Andre Hall, Ryan Torain, and Peyton Hillis. Heck, I haven't released Mike Bell, who couldn't stick with the RB-hurting Texans for more than a week. Alridge is hellafast, but I can't see him doing more than making a practice squad.

I'm going to blow off last Friday's poor QB performance for the Titans. The Raiders play press man coverage and that's not good when you have receivers who can't get open or catch. I am not getting warm fuzzy feelings from the mess that is the Titan wideout situation. I do feel confident in the defense and the offensive line. I wonder if there will be 40 pass attempts total in the season opener against the Jags.

I did an audit of my fantasy teams last weekend. Other than my z34 defensive line (Mario Williams and a bunch of stiffs led by Dwight Freeney), I feel good about my teams. I'm not going to be bold and guarantee three playoff spots. I do believe that my teams won't suck.

Roster stat of the week: In z34, I have 16 running backs. In z17, I "only" have 13. I do have four starters in that league, and Ricky Williams might be number five. If there ever was a time to sell high on a guy, Williams after week one might be the one.

The Big Day

Draft weekend is almost complete. This is the annual event where our league, almost completely guys, get to act like irresponsible teenagers. We are all somewhat relieved when it is over. We start Thursday night and finish on Sunday morning with the aptly named Hangover Bowl.

Draft Day itself was a bit anticlimactic today. One owner was not present and drafted via WebEx. A co-owner was out of town and had to leave a list. We meet at our friend Randy's basement (no one is allowed upstairs) at 9 a.m. Why we meet so early is made apparent later. By 9:30, we start.

The opening pick was Clinton Portis. The final pick was Kyle Orton. In between, the league consumed about a gallon of vodka and at least as much soda, water, Gatorade, and beer. Players were picked, insults were hurled, and luckily, no one hurled. I got home around two p.m. and passed out. For once, I feel semi-human after the event. In fact, this is the first time that I (sort of) feel like drinking at the post-draft party. This is the event when we invite the wives and kids to gather for some grub. It's usually a quiet affair.

A family dispute led to one owner declaring that he's out. We've had brothers, brothers-in-law, and my dad in this league. My dad is the only survivor. He even hoisted the trophy this afternoon, considerably filled with Metimucel.

Fantasy football has taken too great of a focus over the past few weeks. When I noticed that most of the other league owners did little to no draft prep, I wondered what the point was of all my pre-work. I feel like I ended up with a great team. I guess that will have to be the reward.

My 2008 draft:

Keepers: Derek Anderson, Willis McGahee, Andre Johnson
1.03 Jamal Lewis: It was between him and Maurice Jones-Drew. I had MJD last year and he wasn't a lot of help. I took Lewis and his 100 additional carries. I'm really invested in the Browns offense.
2.10 Santonio Holmes: He doesn't fit my "lots of touches" draft theory for 2008. Still, I ticked off Walt, the Steelers' fan who drafted after me.
3.03 Matt Forte: It was running back crazy. In the first three rounds, I'd say 24 RBs got selected. I expect Forte to get 250 carries.
4.06 (trade): Brett Favre: He was the third QB off the board. Between Favre and Anderson, I'm looking at 40 interceptions.
4.10 Roddy White: He had 80 catches last year with journeymen QBs. With Matt Ryan, I can see him getting up to 90 catches.
5.03 Chris Cooley: There's a gap between the "big four" tight ends and Cooley. After Cooley, I feel like there's another gap.
6.10 Donald Driver: Driver's my fourth WR? I'm OK with that.
7.03 Jason Campbell: The QB pool seems shallow this year.
8.10 Tony Scheffler: This is when the draft started to slow down. Scheffler is going to be a borderline #1 tight end, especially while Brandon Marshall is out.
9.03 Giants D: Super Bowl champions, baby.
10.10 Ray Rice: If Willis can't hack it, I need Cam Cameron's top RB.
11.03 Deuce McAllister: I have an extra pick. Either Rice or McAllister will be cut.
12.10 Bucs D: They're usually solid.
13.03 Jeff Reed: Kicker number one.
14.10 Ryan Longwell: Kicker number two.

I have to wait a long time to find out if my three-year playoff drought is over. It's time for football season.

Draft until you can draft no more

Just as I have taken a blog break to focus on my fantasy football drafts, I took a break from my AUFL preparation (so true) to get ready for my college fantasy draft. College fantasy is much lower tech than NFL fantasy. Until a couple of years ago, we had to manually enter our stats. Now we have a site to do this for us. We do not have any kind of draft software, so last night's draft was a manual affair.

It was, in the terms of Dodgeball, like "a bunch of retards trying to hump a door knob." While there is a list of "taken" players on our league site, it was up to our Vice Commish, aka me, to keep track of the picks on the league message board during the draft. While I had worked hard to create a draft list, I had in no way researched all 119 FBS teams. In the first round alone there were three times when an owner selected a player who had already been selected. In our eight rounds, I was the retard twice.

While I was prepared enough to not make a fool of myself, I wasn't as with it as my fellow drafters. A few of them had participated in the other two leagues that Zealots hosted. In the first round I took who I thought was the starting running back at Kentucky. In the next round another owner took a different Kentucky running back. That's the insanity of this kind of draft. In nearly three hours we completed seven rounds. In that time four different running backs from Central Michigan were taken.

In dynasty football it makes sense to "lock up" a team's running game. In college, to lock up a team as mediocre as Iowa State, I have to draft five guys. It's almost better to grab guys from different schools unless you're dealing with a perennial powerhouse like Tennessee or Georgia.

Since it's easier than doing more research, I probably will spend the rest of the draft backing up spots. Then I can scour up to 60 box scores a week looking for the waiver-wire wonder.

Another downside to college fantasy: Imagine that you have Ryan Grant, a talented and upcoming running back on your team. You make him one of your keepers. A month before the draft, you find out that the Packers are converting him to safety. I found out that two of my keepers changed positions. One wide receiver became a safety and one running back became a wide receiver, ruining the value of both.

The AUFL draft is in five days. It's time to shift perspective. Now that Brett Favre is "competing" for the starting job in Green Bay, he becomes potentially the first QB off the board. Last year I had Vince Young as my keeper, and I waited too long to back him up. Since I have Derek Anderson at QB, I'm going to have to jump on a guy early, or feel really confident about a lower-rated player. Right now Eli Manning and Favre will be the top guys, and I'll have to use a second or third round pick to get them. Waiting for David Garrard or Philip Rivers may not be an option.