Saturday, June 11, 2011

Fantasy files: Incremental gains

Check out my interviews with real fantasy experts Andy Miley and Jim Day. Next Monday's Ask a Fantasy Expert interview will be with Chet Gresham of Razzball.

If I have an Achilles heel in my local keeper fantasy league, it's quarterback. I can't seem to draft a good one. In year one, which was the learning curve year, my priority first-round draftee was Mark Brunell. I picked up Kordell Stewart in the final week for the championship game. If fantasy teams retired numbers, I'd do it for him. When we had our first redraft, I waited until the eighth round and got Elvis Grbac. I had nothing and spent the entire offseason badgering the Daunte Culpepper owner to trade him. I got lucky when he inexplicably traded for Vick and I had an opening.

Redraft number two yielded me Jake Plummer. After three years of torment which had me keeping the likes of Vince Young and Derek Anderson, I finally pried Philip Rivers from another owner during his breakout year. He gave me a memorable year and a half and ended my embarrassing playoff-free run.

In the last redraft, the league went QB-crazy. I could have picked Rivers with the third pick in the second round. I waited, got Eli in the 7th. Eli's not bad, but while he seems to improve every year, he's never cracked the elite.

When you have trouble breaking a fantasy tie, let another factor do it for you. I have Darren McFadden and Frank Gore on my roster. Gore was a first-round pick and McFadden was my first waiver claim. That really doesn't matter now. McFadden has the youth but he's been injury-prone, did this just once and the team drafted a similar back in Taiwan Jones. Gore has been beastly since 2006 but can't finish a season and his injury really derailed my 2010 season. McFadden looks like a guy I could keep until our next redraft while I would need to draft a potential keeper for Gore.
At WR I have Hakeem Nicks, who looks like a top-five guy for a while, Miles Austin, Vincent Jackson, and Brandon Marshall. All three of the alternatives could be keepers and should put up great PPR numbers in 2011.

Another owner had Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan. They also have nothing at RB and WR. I thought why not throw a rare two for one deal. I offered Nicks and McFadden for Manning. I waited. Man did I wait. When you send a tweet nowadays, you feel out in the cold if you don't get a response in seven minutes. Five days later, I got the response. I was in.
If you have a weakness, find a way to counter it. I can't draft QBs or prefer not to draft them super early. Therefore, I have to trade for them. I took Peyton over Drew Brees recently because Peyton's track record is longer. 30 TDs is his floor, while when the dearly departed Eli gets 30 TDs, he has a party. Peyton also gets Austin Collie and Dallas Clark back.

Make incremental gains with your fantasy team and you will improve. Peyton over Eli is a few points per game. Peyton over Eli means instead of taking a backup QB early, I can wait until around QB22-24, which gives me a shot at a better supporting cast. I think Gore will outscore McFadden this year. The 49ers have a virtual disaster at QB but so they did last year as well. They also had two first-round rookie linemen who should improve. Losing Nicks will be a blow. His injuries are a concern. For now, Austin is my keeper at WR. The optimist can say that his numbers dipped when Romo was hurt. The pessimist says that Dez Bryant and Jason Witten will eat at his numbers. I can't love his eight games with four or fewer catches, including six with two, although only one of them came with Romo at QB.

I still have Eli as a final trade chip. One owner has Carson Palmer as his top returning QB. I should go make an offer right now.

Thursday, June 09, 2011

Fantasy files: Is Britt Cheech or Chong?

If you want some real content, check out my interviews with fantasy football legends Andy Miley and Jim Day.

Yeah, I'm angry at Kenny Britt. Take a look at his Pro Football Reference page and you see that he plead guilty to reckless driving on Wednesday and got arrested again on Thursday. Look at the page a little closer and see that on opening day 2011, assuming there is an opening day, he's still going to be 22 years old. Jake Locker is older than Britt.

Age does not justify stupidity. He's living a Cheech and Chong movie according to the arrest reports. The first time he ran from the cops. If he were a normal citizen, the felony charges probably would have stuck. He's a star athlete so the charges were reduced. That's a factor in him getting in trouble again without a doubt.

Is Britt the next Pacman? I think Pacman's behavior was more concerning, since they involved people getting shot at strip clubs. For all of Britt's off-field issues, none of them have included violence. All that has been involved to date is immaturity.

He'll probably get suspended. Remember how Dwayne Bowe found his next gear as a pro after attending Larry Fitzgerald's camp last year? Britt sure needs some tough love like that. While the rest of his teammates are attending makeshift practices, he's smoking his way through the summer.

One impressive note from the practices is that 7th round draft pick Zach Clayton chose to practice with his semi-teammates rather than join his Auburn national title squad at the White House. Clayton was the third DT drafted by the Titans so he has an uphill road to climb to make the roster. You better believe that Cam Newton and Nick Fairley were in Washington. Their roster spots are secure.

I joined one of Taz's countless mock drafts to keep the fantasy blood circulating. I got the 12 spot. When a draft is going somewhat slowly, it's good to have two picks in a row. At the first turn I took Larry Fitzgerald and Rashard Mendenhall. There were better PPR options like Matt Forte and Darren McFadden but I felt like Mendenhall is the man in Pittsburgh. He may only catch 15 balls but 320 carries and 10+ touchdowns can be written in ink. Fitzgerald had a disappointing 2010. He still caught 90 passes. At the turn you have to anticipate what the league's going to do in the 23 picks before your next selection. At the 3/4 turn I initially thought of going QB/TE. Antonio Gates was quite tempting. Since only Aaron Rodgers and Mike Vick were off the board, I thought about taking Brees but went with the steadier hand in Peyton Manning. I took Wes Welker and let Gates go. I feel like TE is deep and I knew a ton of wideouts would go before my next pick. In the 13 picks since I selected, five wideouts have gone. Also three tight ends, three QBs, and just two running backs have gone. Waiting on my RB2 might work out in the end.

There's another Ask Your Fantasy Expert lined up for next Monday. I've enjoyed the process so far. My audience went up from mid single digits to double digits, so that's promising. Triple digits is the goal.