Saturday, May 30, 2009

A man named Stanley

I'm watching Game One of the Stanley Cup Finals. Is there a cooler trophy than the Cup? The first goal, when a puck went off the boards, the goalie's pads and into the net, is a type of score you just don't see in the NFL. No one scores by accident.

It's a matchup of last year's finals. I like the Red Wings' red and white look. Any team that sticks with the one color on white, like the Indy Colts, has a simplicity that no one else can match. I prefer the old-school gold that the Penguins used to have. I'd like to see an example of a team that changed their jersey look and improved it.

The Penguins have played well, but they're not taking advantage of power play opportunities. Stealing game one on the road would be huge.

It's interesting that when you go to ebay the hockey jerseys are "made in Canada". That is not the case for the NFL jerseys.

Here's a deep dynasty football trade worth investigating. The Rams, aka mister trade, swapped Jamal Charles and Shawn Nelson for Andre Bradshaw, Mike Goodson, and the 6.11 pick. This trade gives Tick three of the four Giant running backs, and two of the three top guys for Carolina. That's four trades for the Rams so far during our draft. Draft time is a good time to deal because picks never have more value than when the draft is running.

One method of dynasty owning is to "lock up" a position. If I'm thinking that way, I should offer the Rams Danny Ware for Kevin Jones. I would be able to back up Matt Forte, and I've heard good things about Jones this offseason. Still, Danny Ware has a chance to be a piece of that Giant running game.

Back in the flow

The White Sox don't suck! At 15-21 I had written off the season. Other than Buerhle, the starting pitching was horrible. No one was hitting much save Dye and Konerko. The bullpen was decent. Ozzie Guillen hadn't called anyone a *&*&ing *&*&hole in a while.

Over the past week and a half, the team has become quite adept at winning series. While their overall 22-25 record is nothing special, they are on an 8-4 run. Clayton Richard shut down the very shutdownable Royals last night. The stats say that the Sox should be worse than their record. The Sox are 11th or below in the American league in batting average, runs, on base percentage, and slugging. The good news is that they're 10th in stolen bases. The pitching is mainly in the middle of the statistical curve.

Carlos Quentin is on the DL. That's a "duh" scenario since he's on my fantasy baseball team and I must have three players on the DL at once. If I don't have three players on the DL, I acquire more. After getting minor leaguers David Price and Matt Wieters in my lineup, I needed more holes. I picked up Joakim Soria, who should be a top closer when he returns from injury next week. Then I'd have two solid closers and one fill-in (LaTroy Hawkins).

When the White Sox drafted Lance Broadway in the first round of the 2005 draft, it was hoped that he would be come a middle-of-the-rotation starter. He became a backup catcher. The Sox traded Broadway for backup Mets catcher Ramon Castro. In fact a Chicago Tribune article on the deal didn't even mention Broadway by name. Heck, the Mets even agreed to pay part of Castro's salary.

Now, onto the endless dynasty rookie draft. I just realized that no other fantasy sport has a rookie draft. It makes sense since the NFL draft is unique in that their draftees always go directly into the big leagues. The NBA is like that for the most part, but how fun would a rookie draft be based on two rounds of real draft? I'd hate to get the turn on that one.

The draft was delayed by one owner who had some personal issues. It used to be that people had personal issues, said as much, and everyone understood. Now we must go into painful detail. I'm not saying that this situation was painful. It was illuminating because most of the people in this league I know only through the league, and 99% of the discussions are 100% football related. The other 1% is my performance as commish. Real life intervened, although it didn't for long, as the owner made his latest pick this morning. Brandon Tate at 4.03, which means his head is still in the game.

At 4.08 I had a minor quandry. I could take a need position or go for a guy who had dropped according to other draft ADP. I went with the best player available. I took Mike Thomas aka the mighty mite. He looks like an ideal slot guy with his 5'8 stature. Like I've said before, you can't get enough rookie wideouts, because they are fantasy gold. Would the opposite of fantasy gold be fantasy manure? You'd think that I learned my lesson from Sidney Rice and Limas Sweed. When you end up with Dwayne Bowe and Greg Jennings, you tend to have optimistic feelings about the rest.

I had a pick two slots later. It was a pick I acquired for Dwight Freeney. I was sick of Freeney putting up nothing if he didn't get a sack. So I let him go for Juqua Parker, a journeyman defensive lineman who was borderline rosterable but outscored Freeney last year, and the 4.10 pick in this year's draft. I thought it appropriate that I took a DE in Everette Brown. Brown seems like the best defensive end drafted who will actually play defensive end in the NFL. Also I picked up Charles Johnson in free agency, and those guys will compete, and perhaps rotate, opposite Julius Peppers. If Peppers doesn't sign, then my odds of getting a top 24 defensive lineman only increases.

I made the short-sighted trade of a 5th rounder for Lorenzo Booker, so I don't have another pick until the 6th round. I'm itching to make a trade, because there are plenty of good players left. At this point in the year you can't help but want to press the fast-forward button to August.

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Feel the upside

This will be another blog about fantasy football. For Don I will mention that he destroyed me in Wii bowling. The victories were destruction at a level I haven't seen since all of the NFL beat writers decided to give up on the Titans (21 out of 22 starters back, hello). In Peter King's cover story about Mr. Brady mentions the Ravens and the Steelers as the top obstacles to a Patriot return to the Super Bowl. I think the Titans, Colts, and Chargers will have something to say about it. Another three or four teams will contend.

I'll move on. Have you ever noticed how a movie or TV show from, say, 30 years ago seems so very slow by today's standards? In horror movies you used to have to wait up to an hour to see any action. Now things are too fast-paced. Our rookie draft is not fast paced. It's hard to juggle a fantasy life with a real one. Now that school's out, a few of our owners are going on vacation. For a couple of days, we had two. The Dolphins fan who lives in Iowa was out for a few days. The draft stalled for almost a day at his third-round pick. He traded it, which stalled things just a little bit longer. As Commish, you have to check the league site almost every hour in case there's a trade. I'm sure that my boss understands. I have responsibilities.

There are interesting draft theories this year. The Jags fan who lives in Ohio traded his 2010 1st round pick for pick 1.12. There's an 8.25% chance that the pick will be valued the same as this year. He took Aaron Curry. It was a bit curious. Curry probably is the best LB prospect in a while. But this could end up being the number one pick. Don't even ask me to speculate on the number one rookie running back for 2010 just yet. I'm still learning how to spell Maualuga.

The Jags fan also traded his 2010 2nd round pick for 3.03 from the Dolphins. Now he has no picks until the second day, at least in NFL terms. The pick was Juaquin Iglesias. I thought that his latest single sucked. Iglesias is in a good situation with the Bears. He's also one of those so-called polished receivers who has little upside and generally turns into Travis Wilson. Iglesias murdered Missouri every time they played, so naturally I have a bias against him. It does look like there are about 15 rookie wideouts in this year's draft who could be Brandon Marshall and who could be Paul Williams. That's the main reason I haven't ranked players other than the very top guys.

I got Cedric Peerman at 3.08. Before the draft, he was considered a top-five rookie back. What happened is he dropped to the sixth round and is in a crowded Baltimore backfield. I now have Peerman and Ray Rice, who could be the three and four guys in the rotation. If Willis McGahee is traded (unlikely) or released (not impossible), I might have something.

Oh yeah. The Matt Wieters era is about to begin for the Buckhead Sucktards. I expect nothing but home runs in his first seven at-bats. And if he could get a few stolen bases and maybe close a couple of games, that would be nice as well. I don't ask for much. With Wieters coming up and Ryan Ludwick about to be un-DL'd, I have some roster moves to consider. I'll probably reach the halfway point of our allotted 40 waiver moves by the end of June. Every year I promise myself to save some moves for the playoffs and every year it doesn't happen.

Monday, May 25, 2009

On the back burner

This weekend was all about grilling and family. There was talking about sports and even a little hockey in HD. It wasn't the first subject on my mind. I let my rookie drafts fade away into the background. I didn't care how my fantasy baseball team (badly, as usual). I completed the Tour de Tennessee, which was visiting the parents in Nashville and the in-laws in Chattanooga. The dads wanted to talk sports. The moms gave the smile of "finally, someone else to listen to him".

I spent about an hour going over my baseball card collection. It's interesting to investigate a big part of my teen years. I started collecting in 1990, which coincided with Frank Thomas's rookie year and the most flooded card market ever. As I looked through my most prized cards, the best of the lot were worth a few bucks, if that. Instead of wanting to hang onto the memories and keep a few for posterity, I left the whole set. It was a hobby and I enjoyed it but I have moved on. The cards will gain dust not entirely unlike Mr. Thomas, who waits in vain for one last shot at the big leagues. His 41st birthday is this week. The game moves on without him.

I also had a commish dilemma that I doubt Roger Goddell has ever experienced. While I was in Nashville my dad checked on our dynasty league rookie draft every couple of hours. As we all gathered for breakfast, he discussed a trade offer he received. He had the 2.07 pick and I had the 2.08. One of our owners who actually reads this blog made him an offer to move up from 2.10 to 2.07. The trade was for his 2nd and 3rd round picks. That was kind of steep to move up three spots. The guy's a Bucs fan. During the offseason I had picked up Byron Leftwich and Luke McCown. I would need 1st round pick Josh Freeman to get the trio of quarterbacks who were not likely to help my team at all this year. All I need is a bye-week fill-in for Tony Romo.

I was certain that Brian was trading up to get Freeman. Would I dare match his offer by trading my dad a 2nd and a 3rd rounder to move up one spot? Plus, was it really ethical to discuss a trade with another member of the league, dad or no dad? In the end I passed on the deal and Brian took Kenny Britt. Talk about irony. Considering that I took Hakeem Nicks, the guy selected one spot before Britt in the NFL draft, eleven spots earlier in our rookie draft, the pick was a value. I got Freeman. One of the downsides of dynasty football is you can drown trying to "own" a position. To ensure that you get a starter, you may need to pick up three quarterbacks, or in the case of a running back, up to five guys. It rarely pays off. Like in the stock market, diversification is a good idea.

I filled my z17 roster with rookie free agents Mike Wallace and Curtis Painter. Painter might be the next Jim Sorgi. Wallace is another of many drafted wideouts who could be great and could be Fred Gibson.

Friday, May 22, 2009

The week that was

After a year of rebuilding a barren farm system, the White Sox tried to undo it by trading for Jake Peavy. Peavy has some truly frightening contract numbers coming up through 2013. Frankly, the Sox need two Peavys at least to turn things around.

Peavy turned them down. Odds are he'll be wearing Cubbie blue before the season's over.

Fantasy football time. I finished one rookie draft and started another. My z17 haul:

1.12: Percy Harvin, WR Vikings
He's competing for a starting role with fellow upsider Sidney Rice. He's wicked fast. The combination of him playing a quasi-RB role at Florida and the fact that most Florida wideouts fail in the NFL was irresistible.

2.12: Rey Mauluga, LB Bengals
Is taking a Bengal ever a good idea? Their defense actually wasn't bad in the second half of the season. Mauluga should get a lot of tackles.

3.12: 2010 2nd round pick
It's a no-brainer now. Due to the strangeness of this year's rookie drafts I got players I considered at this pick later.

4.12: Jared Cook, TE Titans
Will he learn to block? Will the Titans ask him to block? He'll make a few plays this year and could be fantasy relevant in 2010.

5.12: Louis Delmas, S Lions
I was saved when MFL listed him as a cornerback. He was the last of the "big 3" rookie safeties.

6.12: DeAndre Levy, LB Lions
He could be the MLB for the Lions. Usually I'm left to draft an undrafted free agent running back at this spot. Unlike most 6th rounders, he could be of use.

In z34, I had my usual commish issues in getting the draft rolling. I added a new owner and classically flip-flopped when I said I wouldn't start the draft until all 12 owners checked in. As soon as the owner who had the #1 pick signed in, I "mashed the button". At 1.02 I took Crabtree after a bit of flailing. I spent a few hours thinking over 1.08 today. I could have gone with one of the rookie QBs, which was probably the better investment. I went with Hakeem Nicks.

I've always drafted better in z17, which technically makes no sense. The only difference I see is that in z17 I have a good team, and therefore can take the best player instead of the best player at a position of need. For every Greg Jennings there's a Brian Calhoun.

Here's why 1.08 is such a tough spot:

2008 1.08 pick (me): Ray Rice
2007 1.08 pick (me): Michael Bush
2006 1.08 pick (not me): Vince Young
2005 1.08 pick: Troy Williamson

There are moments of brilliance, but no stars here.

And to make it even more tortuous, look at the top four wideouts taken in the 2005 rookie draft: Braylon Edwards, Mark Clayton, Mike Williams, Troy Williamson. Only one of these guys would be considered a fantasy starter this year.

The only upside to taking two rookie first-round wideouts is that there's a better chance of one not being a bust. That's my deep thinking so far.

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

First instinct

As I was growing up, I don't recall getting a ton of advice from my parents. One piece that I remember is "go with your first instinct".

When I lucked into the 1.02 rookie pick, I knew it was an opportunity. It was all well and good that I converted Ben Rothlisberger into two first-round rookie picks. If I blew the picks, as the Redskins blew all the picks they got for Ricky Williams, it wouldn't matter. With last year's 1.08 pick I took Ray Rice. The verdict is not complete for him yet.

Two years ago I had the number one pick in my college draft. I was about to trade the pick to an owner who wanted freshman sensation Noel Devine. Instead I read on a redshirt freshman wideout for Texas Tech who was dominating. If it wasn't for academic issues, he would have played as a true freshman. That pick turned into two-time Biletnikoff winner Michael Crabtree.

While Crabtree dominated the Big 12, a foot injury kept him from working out at all prior to the draft. Perhaps that helped him. All the pre-draft hoopla seems to do is confuse issues. Players who didn't produce in college have great measureables and skyrocket. Players who were All-Americans and Heisman finalists become undrafted free agents due to the results of a tape measure or a stopwatch.

The number two rookie pick almost always goes to a running back. Calvin Johnson went 1.02 in our league a couple of years ago. He was clearly the best player available. Larry Fitzgerald was as heralded when he left school and he was a 1.05 rookie pick, taken behind such luminaries as Julius Jones (by me) and Tatum Bell (owner name changed to protect the innocent).

After studying the other players briefly, it was obvious that Crabtree was the pick. Still, I faltered. I only have two starting-caliber running backs, and Marion Barber is injury-prone. I tried to trade the pick. Sadly, the 1.02 has such a high perceived value that I couldn't get what I thought was equal value. Actually a lot of the offers were good. I wanted to "win" the trade, and overwhelmingly so. Sadly, the owners of z34 are not that desperate.

In the end I took the player I wanted all along. Crabtree will struggle at first, I think, but in time, he'll be a star. Either way I'm going to write about it.

Here's a quick lesson on being thorough. There are three so-called potential stud safeties in this rookie draft. William Moore, Patrick Chung, and Louis Delmas are the guys. I wanted to get one of them in z17. When my fifth round pick came up, I searched under the "S" position. Delmas wasn't there. Crap. There goes the well thought out plans of men. I started researching other positions. It was a bunch of not much. Who stole my safety? I went to the league draft page and searched under "Delmas". What do you know, he had not been selected. I went back into the draft page, searched the full list, and found Delmas listed as a cornerback. Thanks, MFL. I got my man. In four years I'm either going to say "wow, that was the All-Pro I snagged in the fifth round" or "wasn't that the safety listed as corner? What a bust." There is no in-between in fantasy football.

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Fantasy>reality

The White Sox are an unqualified mess. After taking a 2-0 lead in the top of the first against the Blue Jays, they decided to take the rest of the day off. The only players who are earning their cheddar are Mark Buerhle and Paul Konerko. The team's hitting .250 with a poor 234/105 strikeout to walk ratio. Carlos Quentin will be off for two days due to a heel injury, and Jermaine Dye has just appealed a two-game suspension.

The Sox, at their best, can be a division winner. Right now they're not getting the breaks with injuries or pitching. Gavin Floyd looks smart for signing that extension, because he's been awful lately. Jose Contreras took a voluntary trip to Charlotte, but at least he has the injury excuse.

My title may have been misleading, because my fantasy baseball team is nearly as bad as the Sox. I have three guys on the DL and two in the minor leagues. I think Matt Wieters will get the call up in the next few weeks. David Price, I'm less sure about. I had a surplus of outfielders until Ryan Ludwick got hurt, Quentin hid being hurt, and Andre Ethier slumped right when Manny decided to get himself suspended. John Lackey made his debut with a whopping two-pitch start. He got ejected for hitting the first batter. Hey may stay on my bench.

I always enjoy the rookie draft portion of fantasy football. It makes us all believe that we are real general managers, and we wheel and deal like we are Belichicks. Maybe the Cleveland version. When my 3.12 pick came up this morning, I started to research players and wasn't excited about any of them. I have a championship team with no immediate needs. I'm a little too aware of the bust rate for rookie picks. Luckily, I had two trade offers. I ignored the first and was about to pull the trigger on the second. I was offered three picks for 3.12, the first of which would be only ten slots after my original pick. The owner making the offer took over a bad team and acquired a lot of draft picks, so he was trading up to make up for the excess. Before I made the deal, I noticed that another team offered me a 2010 2nd round pick. It was another no-brainer. This pick could be up to 23 slots higher than my 2009 pick. I took that deal. Even though making a pick would not be earth-shattering, it was a slow news day that I didn't get to pick anyone.

I have three candidates left for my owner vacancy in zealots 34. I will have a winner by tomorrow. I'm giving one guy an extra day to respond. I was impressed by the other owners. My weirdest moment of the weekend was asking a total stranger why he dropped out of a fantasy football league. It's like asking a guy why he stopped playing team trivia and he comes back at you with some sobering personal situations that of which frankly I had no right to inquire. The best part about the owner search is talking to current league owners and having pointless 20-minute conversations about rookie picks past and present. It's fascinating to us and only us.

To conclude, I told my dad last night that I'd rather watch an NFL Network replay of any Titan game from 2008 than any baseball game. It sounded extreme but I stand by my opinion. I feel like I'm one bad White Sox and fantasy baseball season from throwing in the towel.

Friday, May 15, 2009

TMI

Staying organized can be a full-time task. This afternoon, while taking a break from work, I researched my choice for the 2.12 rookie draft pick in z17. In the end it was a debate between Gartrell Johnson and Rey Maualuga. It's the eternal debate in IDP leagues. Running backs are the "pretty, shiny things" and generally turn into a Porsche with a Yugo engine. When you have a 65% chance of a LB pick working out as opposed to a 10% chance of the RB pick working, you finally get to a tipping point. I took Maualuga, mainly because his last name is spelled close to "maul".

I asked one of my fantasy football brethren to help me make my pick. As you could understand, once I did, he asked me for help on his upcoming pick. Thanks to the magic of chat file transfer, he included his team spreadsheet. It was pretty. It was cleaner and way more organized than mine. Naturally, I stole it.

I looked over my messy zealots dynasty spreadsheet. I had nearly 40 sheets within it. There was no summary page. It would have made an auditor who went over the Enron financial records groan. I like to keep track of my teams from start to finish. This does not mean that there is a rhyme or reason. Nothing's better than going back and seeing who I took when, and who I might have taken instead.

Am I spending too much time on this? Am I asking this after I spent the last hour not only organizing the sheet, but filling in gaps like my entire z34 draft history? At least I will have a good record of my "sound" decisions in the future. Now I know where to find things, which will allow me to be more efficient. I think.

Monday, May 11, 2009

Future shock

My fantasy baseball team is a disaster. After four weeks I'm in 10th place, which might be the lowest spot I've ever occupied in this league. One of the reasons I'm struggling has to do with strategy. I traded for David Price and John Smoltz, hoping that both would help my team this summer. Price isn't doing well at AAA and Smoltz recently had a setback. Besides, there isn't room in the Red Sox rotation for Smoltz.

Last week I was happy about my pickup of Russel Branyan. He was short-lived on the roster. The guy who drafted Matt Wieters let him go, and I picked up the Orioles' top prospect. Problem is, Wieters is probably a month away from getting called up. I will have no bench until these situations are resolved. Does it pay to hold out and potentially finish strong?

That's the question I ask when it comes to my zealots rookie drafts. You can draft for now, which would mean immediate returns, or wait on a guy who might need a year or three to develop. What I've noticed from the rookie drafts that I've watched so far is that after the first round, things go awry. The drop-off in running back talent from Shonn Greene to Glenn Coffee is steep. The wideout position isn't as bad as last year, as no first-round selections forced teams to guess on who would be the best contributors. Last year's above-expectation performance of rookie quarterbacks did not elevate the status of Stafford and Sanchez, who generally don't get taken higher than pick 7.

When patience pays off: After his rookie year, I traded a fifth-round rookie pick for Barrett Ruud. It took another season for Ruud to crack the starting lineup. He finished sixth last year in defensive scoring. When a guy is slated to start at a bell-cow IDP position, like MLB in a 4-3 defense like Ruud, you wait. Sometimes you keep waiting. Some veterans have the tendency to not want to give up their jobs.

The 1.02 pick is still for sale in z34. I haven't seen the killer deal yet, so I will probably hold. It would help if owners like my no-good Vice Commish who loves the Bucs like no other would actually pay for the 2009 season. At $7.50 it's the bargain of the century.

I'll conclude with a hello to the Don Funk Sports Bar, now featuring Wii Sports.

Thursday, May 07, 2009

Video game blues

I had my long-awaited Tecmo Bowl game last night. That’s right, the championship game of Tecmo Bowl is called the Tecmo Bowl. How creative.

I matched up against Denver. I had defeated Denver in the semifinals but I didn’t write down the password correctly so I got Indy instead and dispatched them 24-21.

Whoever you play in the championship game is going to be really good. This team had “#7” at QB, and when they run the shotgun, four receiver set, it’s almost impossible to defend. Their running back, “#26”, got into the secondary and couldn’t be run down. I thought that the team had managed to pick up the 12-year-old version of Clinton Portis. No, it was Bobby Humphrey, who made a Pro Bowl in 1990 before his career collapsed.

I gave up a pick-six but kept things close in the first half. I gave up a long Humphrey touchdown and it was 20-7. I had to score and make at least one defensive stop. I made it down the field and completed a fourth-down pass for the touchdown. On the next Denver possession, I guessed correctly and got an interception. Once again on fourth down Payton took it in. I was winning 21-20. There was a little more than a minute left.

I thought about letting Denver score and trying to make my final stand on offense. I played it straight. With about 45 seconds to go, I got another interception. I was going to pull it off.

Sadly, with 45 seconds to go in this game there is no “Victory” formation. You have to earn your way. I got one first down but was stuffed twice, and on third down I called for the screen pass. If there’s a defender on your running back in that situation, you’re screwed. I threw, got picked off, but made the tackle. Denver had 24 seconds and about 40 yards to go.

My defense went into prevent. I gave up a fourth-down pass, but the clock was under 20 seconds. I managed to sniff out a couple of runs. #7 hit a long pass and I made the tackle inside the 10. Six seconds left. The running back took the ball up the middle but the team swarmed in for the tackle. Two seconds left.

I called run on defense. If I called pass wrong I had a shot at stopping it. If I called pass and it was a run, I was finished. It was a pass. The QB moved up, and as I went to meet him shy of the goal line, he stopped shy and tossed it to the wide-open receiver (there is no other kind in Tecmo).

Touchdown.

After work I had my rematch. It was just as tight as the previous game, but it was lacking something. There was no urgency. I trailed 14-0 early. Not throwing interceptions seemed to help. I took a 21-17 lead into the fourth quarter. It was time to give up the inevitable go-behind touchdown.

I wondered why, in Super Bowl 41, that the Patriots and Giants weren't able to muster much offense until the fourth quarter. There was a sense of urgency to every play. The defense didn't stop trying. The players on offense just had answers.

That was me, driving steadily but trying to run the clock. I had a fourth and nine inside the 30-yard line. Should I go for the tie? Forget it. I completed a pass. Fourth and four inside the ten. I run and am stopped at the two. Three plays later it's fourth down again. Knowing that Denver's going to call my play, I choose a run. Somehow I'm able to punch it in.

I give up a couple of medium-big plays in the final few seconds, but mercifully the clock runs out. I am not elated, nor happy, nor slightly unhappy. I'm relieved. Life has to have better rewards than this. I think I can safely retire from the Tecmo Bowl for a little while.

Monday, May 04, 2009

How it all came together

Before embarking on a the reasons why the Titans' 2008 offseason led to the 13-3 season, I'll throw in a fantasy baseball nugget. My team has not been in the second division for three years. In fact, I haven't been lower than third in the league in that time. I'm now in 8th after losing this week to an uncle who's now in first place and usually resides in the basement, hence his team name "Last Place Law". I made panic moves by picking up Asdrubal Cabrera (almost as poorly named as some of the women on Tough Love) and Russell Branyan (yes, he's still alive) to shore up my weak bench.

It was educational to watch the Titans' Monday Night performance because I got to hear the announcers. There wasn't much believing in the Titans when they were 6-0. I don't blame them. The team was led by a has-been backup QB in Kerry Collins, had no receivers at all, and was trying to figure out if Chris Johnson was for real or not. The Titans responded by throwing more than they ran, took advantage of a few timely penalties and didn't turn the ball over.

How did the team make the leap from 10-6 to 13-3? I'm going to review this based on offseason action. Nothing that happens in the offseason means anything until the season starts. Going into 2008, the Titans had a strong defense, a suspect offense, and critically, a new offensive coordinator. Offseason reports focused on Vince Young's development. What kind of crazy team drafts running backs in the first two rounds three years in a row when they clearly needed a top WR?

Big stories that didn't matter:

Vince Young developing under the same OC who made Steve McNair into a star: After a humbling 2007, Young would work hard to re-capture his 2006 mojo. That was a given. Instead, he spent half of his offseason in Austin taking classes. When you have $10 million plus in the bank, don't worry about school until your first career tanks.

Alge Crumpler signs: He immediately became the team's number one receiver by default. No one gave much heed to Crumpler's career high of 65 catches or the nagging injuries that led to his release by the Falcons.

The overdrafting of a combine workout warrior: When you look at a list of the top 40-yard-dashes, you don't always see a list of NFL studs. Ian Johnson and Kory Sheets finished 2nd and 3rd in RB 40 time at the combine. Neither were drafted. Chris Johnson ran a 4.29, by far the fastest 40 time. With the juggernaut combo of LenDale White and Chris Henry, Johnson was somewhat of an afterthought. In both of my dynasty leagues, he was the 7th player taken.

Little stories that did matter:

Collins tears it up: Kerry Collins trained harder prior to the 2008 season than he had in years. He prepared like he was the starter, which enabled him to come into the season opener cold and complete a third-down pass that all but clinched the game. No one cared about Collins in the offseason because he was just the "wily old veteran" hanging out, wearing a baseball cap, and making a couple of (million) bucks in the process.

Salary-cap positioning: Much was made about how the Titans were not active in free agency last year. Instead of signing overpriced vets, they signed David Stewart, Michael Roos, and Cortland Finnegan to long-term deals. If they had waited another year to sign Finnegan, the price would have more than doubled. Signing your own veterans is a smarter financial move than the veteran because the guys already know the system, town, and franchise.

Second-year upswing: Michael Griffin was a much unballyhooed first-round selection by the Titans in 2007. He switched from cornerback to safety during his rookie year. With one position to play and an entire offseason to learn the playbook, Griffin was prepared to put together a Pro Bowl campaign.

Luck: The third-down penalty that started the game-winning drive at Baltimore was luck. Continuing the drive against a tough defense on the road was not. In the game-tying drive against the Colts, a third-down penalty helped continue the series. Collins kept the drive alive with some timely third-down magic. He was helped by an offensive line that gave up 12 sacks all year.

Let's not forget the unsung heroes from 2008. Bo Scaife caught 58 passes, which made him Alge Crumpler for about a fifth of the price. Justin Gage only caught 34 passes. He averaged 19 yards per catch and absorbed a huge hit by Troy Polamalu in the December victory over the Steelers. Chris Hope came back from a devastating neck injury to put up a Pro Bowl campaign. Nick Harper accepted a slight demotion to CB2 and finished second on the team in tackles. Ahmard Hall made the most of his limited opportunities.

Jim Washburn, the crusty defensive line coach, worked his magic again. With Albert Haynesworth out against the Steelers, a defensive line full of backups dominated the Steelers. Apparently no one who matched up with Pittsburgh in the playoffs watched the film. Tony Brown stepped up. Jason Jones played well. Jacob Ford, who missed his rookie year with a torn Achilles, was second on the team with seven sacks. He's one of the reasons why the team didn't address DE in the draft.

It all came together perfectly. At least it did during the regular season. The loss at Houston and the season finale preseason-esque drubbing in Indy soured it slightly. 2009 begins with too many expectations for fans to be as exhilarated. Perhaps the Titans will survive the regular season and thrive in the playoffs like the Steelers did one season after a crushing home playoff loss. I have plenty of time to think about it.

Sunday, May 03, 2009

Trade winds

As I watch the replay of the Titans/Colts Monday Night game from last year, I'll write about my efforts to trade my 1.02 rookie pick in z34.

Bernard Berrian is my top wide receiver in z34. Somehow I made the playoffs last year. Now, I only have Marion Barber and Matt Forte at RB, so I could use the RB that is the typical pick at 1.02.

While watching Mean Girls on ABC Family, my wife made the horrible mistake of checking to see if we still got the NFL Network. Comcast and the NFL Network are feuding over who can fleece their customers for more money. It's a stalemate.

I watch because I was at the game. The Titans attempted a college football-like blue-out which was moderately successful. The victory over the juggernaut Colts was huge as it let the Titans take the division title. Manning's offseason surgery gave them too much of a gap to make up at the end of the year.

As for the offers. . . I'll just list them below.

Offer one: Chad Johnson, straight up. Do notice a trend of people offering players who were way more valuable a year ago. Johnson was second to Holt in his amazing drop in production last yer. Mr. Ocho Cinco had no fewer than 87 catches and seven touchdowns in the last five years. Last year he caught 53 passes and four touchdowns. He is 31 and could be a good buy-low candidate. The 1.02 pick is not low.

Offer two: Randy Moss, straight up. Moss set the league on fire in 2007, setting a record with 23 touchdown catches. Last year his numbers dropped, although he still scored 11 touchdowns. I have no doubt that Moss will be a dominating presence for the Patriots during the next two seasons. After that, I'm not so sure. I did once trade the 1.04 pick for Tiki Barber, knowing that it was Barber's final season. The 1.04 was Joseph Addai.

Chad Simpson is tearing the Titans up in the second half. The Titans are struggling on run D midway through the third quarter, trailing 7-6. Manning's just missing some touchdown opportunities. And then Dallas Clark is wide open for the 14-6 lead.

The NFL Network is nice enough to show Rob Bironas's field goal to beat the Colts in 2006.

Hey, look, Alge catches the ball and doesn't fumble. We can safely say that the Crumpler pickup was not as lucrative as we thought.

The third offer . . . Terrell Owens and Willis McGahee. This would have been a heckuva offer last year. McGahee has a large cap number and could be let go by the Ravens. Owens has a one-year deal and the best-case scenario would be for him to have a good "honeymoon" season and sign one last long-term deal. I can Pasadena on this one.

I like that there have been so many offers. The 1.02 has so much potential. I want a solid sure thing to make the deal. Right now, I'm leaning toward holding on to the pick.

Titans tie it up. Going for two with three minutes to go in the third quarter still doesn't seem right. Since it worked, we're happy.

I'm going to sit back, relax, and enjoy a game from a season that could have been so much more. I'll try to remember what it felt like that night.

Friday, May 01, 2009

Trading Down

There's no substitute for experience. In my two dynasty leagues I will be entering rookie drafts six and five, respectively. I have the 1.02 rookie pick in one league, and trying to decide who to take is difficult. To begin my research, I'm going to look at top five picks since 2005.

2005:
1. Ronnie Brown (hasn't been a stud, but he's still a RB2)
2. Cadillac Williams (ouch, literally; he was traded straight up for Fred Jackson last year)
3. Cedric Benson (may still have a little value)
4. JJ Arrington (I fell for his charms in another league)
5. Braylon Edwards
D'oh pick: 12. Frank Gore (yeah, by the same guy who got Peyton Manning and LaDanian Tomlinson in the redraft)

2006:
1. Reggie Bush (we had such high hopes)
2. Laurence Maroney (oh, boy)
3. DeAngelo Williams (left for dead prior to 2008, reason #501 why you NEVER GIVE UP ON RUNNING BACKS IN FANTASY FOOTBALL)
4. Joseph Addai (three years later, his replacement was drafted)
5. LenDale White (decent value)
D'oh pick: 11. Maurice Jones-Drew (the reason why picks at the end of the first round are like lottery picks)

2007:
1. Adrian Peterson (looking good)
2. Calvin Johnson (rare WR taken this high who's worth it)
3. Marshawn Lynch (million dollar talent, ten cent head)
4/5. JaMarcus Russell/Brady Quinn (oh my)
No sleeper here

2008:
1. Darren McFadden (didn't start well)
2. Jonathan Stewart (pre-DeAngelo Williams breakout looked studly)
3. Rashard Mendenhall (gets an incomplete to go with his Super Bowl ring)
4. Kevin Smith (situation over draft slot)
5. Matt Forte (worked out OK)
Year of the RB with 7. Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton as the 31st player taken

In 2004, I took Julius Jones at 1.02. Steven Jackson was on the board. Yeah, it's going to be a tough one.